IHME Covid Projections to March 1, 2023 for the US
This article includes the IHME model projections, now until March 1, 2023. As usual, I am not a doctor or an epidemiologist so this is not to be considered authoritative, nor do I represent UC Irvine in this.
The November 17 IHME model projections are that Covid total deaths in the US are 1.3 times the reported deaths. The infection detection is only at 5%. 97% of Americans have been infected at least once. BA.5 is the most common variant in the model. Recent data show that BQ.1 and BQ1.1 are now about half, and BA.5 is about a quarter of infections. Masking is down to only 8%. 70% are fully (doubly) vaccinated, which will rise to 74% by March 1. Immunity to BA5 from infection or vaccination is at 65%.
On March 1, in IHME, daily infections are projected at 1.3 million per day, which could be reduced to 60% of that or 0.77 million per day with 80% masking. Daily hospital occupancy by Covid patients would peak at 35,000 around mid February, and could be a minimum with 80% masking of about 9,500 in mid January.
In the IHME model, hospitalizations will peak about 34,700 around mid February, which could be reduced to a peak around 9,500 in mid January with 80% masking. Daily infections on March 1 are around 1.3 million a day, which could be reduced to about 0.8 million a day then with 80% masking.
We are most concerned with the vaccinations of the elderly, and the distribution and effectiveness of the new bivalent vaccine for the original Covid and the BA.5 variant. This is most important during the winter and holiday season, especially today, one day after Thanksgiving, and on store crowding Black Friday.
From The NY Times, hospitalization for Covid is at 22,200. A year ago it was double that at 45,000, and two years ago is was 3.5 times that at 78,000.
Only 35 million Americans or 12% of adults or 11% of age 5 or older have received the new bivalent booster. The government has purchased 170 million doses, or enough for half of all Americans.
