IHME Projects Rapid Drop in US COVID, Then Resurgence Over the Holidays

IHME Projects Rapid Drop in US COVID, Then Resurgence Over the Holidays

Updates, September 23.  In The Atlantic article by Sarah Zhang quoting virologist Trevor Bedford, so far in September, 88% of US COVID deaths have been in people over 65, since seniors have weaker immune responses.  He projects a continuing 100,000 deaths a year by COVID, which is three times that of a typical flu year.  It will continue to infect 50% of Americans a year, in contrast to the flu which infects 10%-20%.

Update:  An LA Times article says that for California this summer, half of COVID deaths have been from people aged 80 or over.  Nearly one-third have been from those 65-79 years old.  The 65 and over then make up 5/6 of deaths, or 83% in California.

Update:  A commission has estimated that for the US, “unfounded anti-vaccine sentiment has led to as many as 200,000 preventable deaths.”  California full vaccination rates by race are:  Asian, 90%; White 65%; Latino, 56%; and Black, 55%.  By age, for California, those 50 and over are about 85% fully vaccinated.  Those 18-49 are 78% vaccinated.  Even 12-17 is 67% fully vaccinated, and 5-11 is 36% fully vaccinated.

The IHME has made new projections on September 9th.  For the US, there is projected a rapid drop from the current about 600 Total Deaths a day, to a low of around 150 a day near the start of November.  After that, there will be a rise back to about 400 Total Deaths a day by January 1st, where the projection ends.

The background is that masking is currently at 14% and will stay at less than 10%.  For CA, NY, and HI, it is in the range of 10%-20%.  Mobility is only reduced by 7% compared to pre-COVID.

Between September 14 and January 1, modeled Total COVID deaths would increase from 1,322,021 to 1,361,986, or almost 40,000 more to go.  If the US would switch to 80% masking, that could reduced to about 22,250.

From graphs:  CA masking is 26% and mobility reduced by 19%; TX masking is 16% and mobility -6%; FL masking is 16% and mobility -6%; and NY state masking is 21% and mobility -13%.

The US infection fatality rate is less than 0.2%, that is the percent of deaths among those who have been infected.

CA is estimated to be 77% fully vaccinated by January 2023, with 98% immune to the Delta variant, and 78% immune to the Omicron variant.

CA hospitalizations at around 4,400 will drop to around 1,600 in November, and then rise again to around 5,000 by January.

CA daily estimated infections are currently about 140,000 a day.  They will drop to about 70,000 a day by the end of October, and then rise to about 320,000 a day by January 1.

CA Total Deaths by January 1 will be 135,000, which is 7,000 more since August 29th.

It is estimated that 94% of Californians had been infected by August 29th, and the infection detection rate has only been 5%.

While IHME does not directly cite modeling for the new Omicron dual vaccine, they model Other mRNA vaccines effectiveness against Omicron as 67% against severe disease, and 46% against infection.

A PNAS article has modeled that if the US had Universal Health Care, 1 in 4 COVIID deaths could have been prevented.  That is 340,000 as of March 2022 using the IHME model of 1,237,000 Total COVID deaths by then.  That means that while the US has 4% of the World’s population, we have had 16% of the World’s deaths.  On March 15 in IHME, the ratio of Total US Deaths to Reported was 1.27.

From the Los Angeles Times we show the percent fully vaccinated on the vertical axis, for all of the US states.

Full vaccination rates and deaths per 100,000 for the four largest states are shown in the table.

We hope that many people get the new BA5 vaccine, and trust that Seniors will, as they have the other vaccines, often at the 92% level.   One problem is that Congress has to step up and appropriate more money to make COVID coverage free.  The cost of vaccinations, antivirals, and hospital treatments is so small compared to that of COVID deaths, severe illness and Long COVID.  At the current death rate of about 500 a day, that is about 180,000 deaths a year, which is triple the worst flu seasons.  So far, only about 2/3 of the US has received the first booster shot, and of those, only a third has received the second booster shot.