April 8. Lowered Projections for Health Needs and Deaths For New York and California
We present the new IHME projections for New York and California on lowered hospital needs and expected deaths.
New York
Total deaths 13,300 (9,400 to 22,000). Yesterday’s data 4/7 is 5,489 deaths. The total death curve will be flat by May 1.
Deaths per day peak today 4/8 at 775 (316 to 1,733). Yesterday’s deaths 4/7 were 791.
Beds are predicted to peak today at 23,000 (12,000 to 44,000), half to double.
ICU beds are predicted to peak today at 6,000 (3,000 to 11,000). However, ICU beds available are 718, before being expanded.
Ventilator needs peaked yesterday at a projected 5,000 (3,000 to 9,000).
California
Hospital resources are projected to peak on April 13.
Beds needed will be 4900 (2,300 to 9,900).
ICU beds will be 800 (400 to 1,500).
Ventilators will be 700 (360 to 1,300).
Deaths per day will peak on April 15 at 70 (20 to 200).
Total predicted deaths are 1,600 (1,100 to 2,600). On May 1 there will be 1,600 (1,000 to 2,600).
Here is the table of today’s Percentage Increases, with the Domain, and the Total number of Cases As of this evening.
| Domain | Cases | Percent Increase |
| US | 432,132 | 8.06% |
| NY | 151,069 | 7.61% |
| NJ | 47,437 | 6.80% |
| MI | 20,346 | 7.25% |
| CA | 18,922 | 7.36% |
| LA | 17,030 | 10.5% |
| MA | 16,790 | 10.4% |
| PA | 16,631 | 11.2% |
| FL | 15,698 | 6.45% |
| IL | 15,078 | 11.3% |
| GA | 10,177 | 11.1% |
| TX | 10,076 | 9.47% |
| WA | 9,277 | 3.2% |
| CT | 8,781 | 12.9% |
| IN | 5,943 | 7.86% |
| CO | 5,655 | 4.16% |
| MD | 5,529 | 26.5 |
| OH | 5,148 | 7.65% |
| TN | 4,363 | 5.41% |
| VA | 3,645 | 9.30% |
| NC | 3,568 | 7.99% |
| MO | 3,393 | 5.73% |
| AZ | 3,036 | 5.23% |
| WI | 2,812 | 9.08% |
| SC | 2,552 | 5.59% |
| AL | 2,499 | 13.7% |
| NV | 2,318 | 8.78% |
| Canada | 19,290 | 7.78% |
| Mexico | 3,181 | 14.2% |
| Brazil | 16,188 | 15.2% |
| Los Angeles County | 7,573 | 7.80% |
| Orange County | 1,016 | 9.13% |
The US dropping to 8.06% is a very important sign that a turnover is near.
Mexico and Brazil are very high at about 15%.
Maryland is at 26.5%, and Alabama at 13.7%. Many states are near or well below 10%, another leveling out sign. Washington has dropped to 3.2%.
Los Angeles County and Orange County are about 8% and 9%, which shows that stay-at-home is paying off.
