Flooding of US and Local Southern California Facilities by 2100 in Low and High Sea Level Rise Scenarios

In the High sea level rise projections for the US for the year 2100 of flooding on average of twice a year, 1,600 facilities would be affected nationwide.  Some are on the West Coast, but most are on the East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico, with Florida especially accented.  These estimates do not seem to include inland flooding which is also enhanced by climate change.

The graphs and infrastructure maps are from Kristy Dahl, Principal Climate Scientist for the Union of Concerned Scientists.

We begin with the projections for Low and High sea level rise scenarios, and their correlation with projections for global temperature rises by 2100.

Critical infrastructure hit by twice a year flooding by 2050 in the Intermediate scenario for the United States is shown below:

Maps for infrastructure flooded at least twice a year by 2100 is shown for Low and High Scenarios below.

Low Sea Level Rise Scenario:

High Sea Level Rise Scenario:

I have about a five year old Flickr album of sea level rise in the local Newport Bay and other sensitive areas in the US.

Flooding for a two foot rise:

Flooding for a four foot rise:

Flooding for a six foot rise:

Unfortunately, if there is a high rainfall like an atmospheric river coming down the river into the bay at a time of high tide, they add and produce greater flooding.

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The Ten Commandments in The Age of Trump

The Ten Commandments in The Age of Trump

  1. I am the Lord thy God, and DJT is Not.  You shall have no other gods before me, and that right wing sinner Donald Trump must stop selling Bibles, especially with the Constitution, which he also ignores.
  2. You shall not take the name of the Lord your God in vain, and you also should stop using curse words, DJT.
  3. Remember to keep holy the Lord’s Day, and Donald, it wouldn’t hurt you to go to church for services some day, instead of just for political speeches using curse words.
  4. Honor your Father and Mother, and stop separating Children from theirs’.
  5. Thou shalt not kill, and Donald, stop exciting your rabid followers from issuing death threats and assaulting Capitol police officers.
  6. Thou shalt not commit adultery, especially with porn stars and Playboy centerfolds, and stop assaulting women and claiming on tape that you have a right to do it, which you alone claim is a million year old privilege.
  7. Thou shalt not steal, as you have been convicted of many times now, as well as not paying your contractors.
  8. Thou shalt not bear false witness against your neighbor, or your political opposition, and you may as well also atone for the 30,000 lies that you told as President.
  9. Thou shalt not covet your neighbor’s wives, as DJT is reported to have bragged about many times.
  10. Thou shalt not covet your neighbor’s goods, or go bankrupt on their investments, or take away their medical services, abortion rights, abortion pills, contraceptives, electric vehicle incentives, clean energy resources, education funding, medical research funds, vaccine incentives, etc. 

I deeply respect the Ten Commandments and try to live by them.  I was not going to post this sarcastic humor on the violation of the First Amendment Separation of  Church and State, except when I awoke this morning, what to my wondering eyes did appear, but the encouragement by Trump himself to post them in every part of public schools, including public universities.

Additionally, the piece is Political Science which is part of the Academics and therefore Academic Freedom of a University.

Posted in Families Belong Together, First Amendment, Health Care, Humor, Immigration Policy, Ten Commandments, Trump Administration, Trump Insurrection, Trump Truthiness, Women’s Rights | Leave a comment

The Breakthrough Increases of Graduate Student Teaching Assistant and Research Salaries, and Postdoctoral Salaries, and Their Subsequent Effects

These workers last year unionized through United Auto Workers, and included those members of the University of California system of ten campuses.  They also did a six week strike in the UC system, representing 48,000 Graduate Students.  The UC campuses are often in popular coastal areas as well as in expanding business areas, partly due to their presence.  This results in rapidly increasing housing costs.  There also was a period of 9% inflation.  

Graduate students often work at 50% salary as Teaching Assistants during their first two years while they are also completing required graduate courses.   Mostly, graduate researchers also work at 50% salary.  The University covers their tuition and student fees.  They then become Research Assistants if such funding is available.  The research grant covers their tuition.  Graduate students usually take five years or more to complete a Ph. D. Degree.  Postdocs may take several two year appointments before they land one of a limited number of faculty jobs.  They also want to get on with their lives.  This requires employment policies covering health care, family leaves and child care.  There are also concerns about needing to change faculty advisors or mentoring at times.  All of these require unions which are designed to handle such bargaining issues, and raises and negotiations to take such concerns into account.  

Since the UC Sytem covers the state of California with the largest population and student system, and is a transparent public university, we cover that in detail. 

From the official UC salary website we have the new salaries:  The starting Research Associate salary for the full year is $58,233;  starting Teaching Assistant for the 9 months Academic Year is $58,250;  if Half-time, that is $29,125; and starting Grad Student Researcher full year is $61,080, and half-time is $30,540.  The starting Postdoctoral Fellow full year salary is $60,000.  The starting Lecturer salary for the Academic Year is $86,247.  The UC says that the Graduate Student salary increase is immediately 7.5%, with an hourly increase for such workers of $1.50 per hour.  For comparison, the starting Assistant Professor salary which was not part of that Union is $74,600, and full Professor is $108,300.

Other sources give perhaps somewhat wilder salary statements.  One article says that the union contract runs through May, 2025, and eventually raises the salaries for Graduate Students, Researchers and Postdocs by 45%.  Another says that Graduate student researchers got raises of 25-80%, whereas academic employees got raises of 55-80%.  Another says that the minimum TA academic year salary was raised from $25,000 to $36,000.  Another says that if a TA goes on strike, their $750 a week is replaced by the Union allowance of $500 a week.  (I am not paid to reconcile all such statements.)

Update, June 8:  The Strike has been halted by an Orange County Superior Court Judge citing ‘damage to students’.  See the LA Times story here.  The same information is in an article on Politico here.  It is a temporary restraining order until a hearing on June 27, which covers finals and graduations.  Will the Union appeal the order?

By a vote of 79% among 20,000 of  UAW 4811 members, the UAW has voted to strike over rights to protest, which the UC is contesting as illegal, and appealing to the labor board.  Strikes are occurring at UC Santa Cruz, UCLA, and UC Davis at the most crucial time of the year.  This takes out 14,000 Union members serving 80,000 students.  Now, UC Santa Barbara, UC San Diego, and UC Irvine are also striking.  That is six of the ten UC campuses, and will bring the total of strikers to 31,500, or 2/3 of the Union members.  This could affect 169,000 undergraduates, which is 73% of the total of 233,000 in the UC system.

Members of the Union can still go in to do their work, and the Union may not block them.  If members take partial time off to strike, they will only be paid for the hours which they work.

UC President Drake has approved, contingent on final state funding, a 4.2% salary increase for staff and academic appointees for 2024-2025.

Governor Newsom has, for 2025-26, committed to provide UC with $259 million in back payments, and $530 million in new ongoing funding.

The consequences of these increases in states with limited budgets or budget deficits, along with federal budget tightness for national research, is immediately to decrease recruitment of graduate students, and it is feared, researchers and postdoctoral fellows.  This of course will hamper US international science competitiveness, and put more pressure on recruiting foreign trained advanced degree holders for our businesses. It is feared that the fewer positions will then be more concentrated in the top universities.

California has a looming education budget deficit, and the Governor has decided to cover that in TK-12 and Community Colleges rather than in the Cal State or the UC system.  The May estimated California budget deficit for 2024-5 is $38 billion, out of a budget of $143 billion, of which 7.4% ($10 billion) goes to education.

Within the University, there will be a competition for what makeup funds there are, probably advantaging those that need to maintain outside research funding, and disadvantaging small or research unfunded areas.  There will undoubtedly be pressure for increases in tuition.  Some fear that there will also be competition between faculty and graduate student numbers and salaries.  All of this will probably soon become evident.  Stay back and stay tuned.

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Forecasting the Weather with AI Analysis of the European Weather Forecast Model

Forecasting the Weather with AI Analysis of the European Weather Forecast Model

Current weather predictions solve fluid dynamic models of the atmosphere and water vapor and clouds and the earth’s topography on supercomputers to predict the weather up to 10 days in advance.  The first computers were even applied to this in WWII.  But for a long time, experienced weathermen could take the atmospheric picture and apply their knowledge to make fair weather predictions.  That job is now being done by applying Artificial Intelligence learning to 40 years of data and model analyses by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

Once trained, the AI can be run on a desktop in a minute to give forecasts 6 hours ahead with at least 90% of the accuracy of the European Model, and sometimes even beating it.  However, the one million grid points covering the earth amount to cells of 28 km x 28 km at the equator, or 17 x 17 miles.  This can skimp on a lot of important geographical features, such as shorelines or mountains.  

Apps are already available on laptops, but charge fees.  These can even predict the weather that you will encounter on a trip.

Google DeepMind has a graphical machine learning application called GraphCast.  This was even better at predicting tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and extreme temperatures.  These have to be done rapidly and locally to warn of rapidly changing dangers. 

GraphCast can predict 6 atmospheric variables at 37 levels of altitude, including temperature, wind speed and direction, and humidity.

Here is a European area weather prediction for the atmospheric pressure from GraphCast in contours, and the wind speed in m/s in colors at altitudes where the pressure is 850 hPa (1,000 hPa being close to sea level.)

 

As usual with AI, there is not an understanding of what the AI neural network has really learned.  This may be a problem in using these tools as the climate changes, which it already seems to be rapidly doing.

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The Construction and Uses of Exascale Computing

The Construction and Uses of Exascale Computing

Definition of Exascale

Science computing and Government computing such as weather forecasting had been using computers up to 50 pentaflops, where a pentaflop means 10^15 floating point operations a second, such as multiplying two decimal numbers together.  A new computer named Frontier at Oak Ridge National Lab in Tennessee has now achieved 1.1 exaflops, or 1.1×10^18 flops, 20 times faster.  This is Exascale computing.  It’s cost is $600 million.

Exascale computers are also at Argonne National Lab in Illinois “Aurora”, and Lawrence Livermore National Lab in California “El Capitan”.  They are also being built in Germany (JUPITER), France, and Japan.

Uses of Exascale Computing

“Projects already planned for Frontier include research into cancer, drug discovery, nuclear fusion, exotic materials, superefficient engines, and stellar explosions. The aim of the machine is to speed the time required for such work from weeks to hours and from hours to seconds.”

“The presence of the Frontier supercomputer has already changed this. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) project overcomes these obstacles by combining new software approaches with immense exascale performance. Sarat Sreepathi, co-author of the research and coordinator of the E3SM project, as well as co-author of the E3SM atmospheric model called SCREAM, explains: “The climate modeling community has long dreamed of running kilometer-scale models at a speed sufficient to facilitate decade-scale predictions, and now it has become a reality.””

“Supercomputer simulations are essential to an ever-growing list of NASA initiatives. These include jet aircraft noise reduction, green aviation advancement, simulating the aerodynamic stability of the capsule that will deliver a quadcopter to the surface of Saturn’s largest moon, and supporting satellite investigations of planets orbiting deep-space star systems.”

The France-EU computer “will help solve societal challenges in several areas, such as energy (e.g. support fusion energy development), health (e.g. fast analysis of genomic data for virus mutations, rapid disease detection), and management of climate change (e.g. providing high-resolution weather forecast models). It will also advance our capabilities in quantum computing simulation.”

Parallel Processing and Exascale Computer Construction

A key breakthrough in computing is to use simultaneous or parallel processing as in Graphical Processing Units (GPUs) where all of the pixels of a screen are processed at the same time.  The processors are called “cores”.

“Frontier uses 9,472 AMD Ерус 7713 “Trento” 64 core 2 GHz CPUs (606,208 cores) and 37,888 Instinct MI250X GPUs (8,335,360 cores)” (220 cores per GPU).  “They can perform double-precision operations at the same speed as single precision.”  95% of their performance is from the GPUs.

A picture of the Frontier Exascale computer.  There are 74 such Cray cabinets as in the picture.

 

For comparison, the newest Apple MacBook Air uses an 8 core CPU and a 10 core GPU.  These are turboboosted up to 3.8 GHz (3.8×10^9 per second).

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Weight Loss Drugs are the Science Magazine Breakthrough of 2023

Weight Loss Drugs are the Science Magazine Breakthrough of 2023

Development of Diabetic Drugs

Again, I am not a doctor, and can take no responsibility for the simplicity of this presentation in an Osher Lifelong Learning Institute at UCI lecture.

The development of drugs for diabetic management of glucose over the last fifteen years or so has led to drugs like Ozempic which can be taken once a week through a simple and largely painless injection in the stomach or thigh.  Ozempic stimulates the pancreas to release insulin to process glucose when present.  They are a major advance over the meal by meal finger prick tests for blood glucose monitoring, and then injections of insulin to process the blood glucose into the muscles.

Weight Loss

The amazing side effect is that in tests, Ozempic has led to weight loss of 15% of the patients body weight.  Unfortunately, they have to continue taking the drug in order to not regain a large part of that.  The Semaglutide drugs work partly by keeping the gut fuller while processing, making one feel less hungry, and also by signaling the brain to desire less food.

The drugs have now also been shown in a trial of people with excess weight and cardiovascular disease, to lower the risk of fatal or nonfatal heart attacks and strokes by 20% compared to those on a placebo.

We don’t cover possible side effects as there are not tables available.

Obesity as a Problem

The Body Mass Index or BMI is weight divided by height squared, in kilograms and meters  squared.  Calculators abound on the web using pounds and feet and inches.

According to 2018 data, for American adults:

31% are Overweight (BMI 25-30)

42% are Obese (BMI 30+)

9% are Severly Obese (BMI 40+).

Obesity can lead to type-2 diabetes, heart disease, arthritis, fatty liver disease, and certain cancers.

Cost and Coverage of Weight Loss Drugs

Currently, Ozempic costs about $800 a month in the US.  If covered for diabetes, there is just a small copay.

Last year in August, it cost $936 a month in the US, but only $169 in Japan, $147 in Canada, $103 in Germany, and $93 in the UK.  In one estimate, the drug company could still make a profit selling it for less than $1 a month.  In fairness, the high rates would be claimed by the companies as the cost of research and testing, not to mention vast advertising to justify the high rates.  54% of people on the drug have trouble paying for it.

Ozempic may be a top choice in 2025 for ten drugs bargained for by Medicare, with rates to take effect in 2027.  In 2022, Medicare paid $5.7 billion for the drug.  By law, Medicare is not allowed to cover drugs for weight loss.

It is estimated that by 2030, up to 30 million Americans, or 9%, would benefit from such drugs.

Future Prospects for Treatment of Addictions

There are indications that these drugs may be able to lessen the desires for smoking, drinking, and other drugs.  Experimentation is ongoing to find the best ones.

Future Cheaper and Better Drugs are conceived of.

Treatment for Chronic Kidney Disease

A new study announced on May 24 shows that Ozempic lowered deaths in adults from cardiovascular and Kidney Disease by 24%.  One in seven US adults have Kidney Disease.  850 million people world-wide have it.  Ozempic will apply to the FDA for approval in its use to fight Kidney Disease.

Posted in Ozempic, Science Breakthrough of 2023 | Leave a comment

Alzheimer’s Drug’s Breakthrough of 2023

Science Magazine voted Alzheimer’s Drugs as one of the 10 Breakthroughs of 2023.  This is a short report on that for an OLLI UCI Lifelong Learning class.  As usual, I am not a doctor, and am leaving out the usual drug warnings for such a short talk.

Most Alzheimer’s patient’s brains have tangled clumps of a protein called beta amyloid.  A new drug to prevent such accumulation, called lecanemab or LEQEMBI, over 18 months, slowed the loss of cognition by 27%.  Another, donemab, slowed by 33%.  As new drugs, the longer term effects against dementia are yet to be found.

Update:  A Washington Post article on women’s health pointed out that in the LEQEMBI trial, the loss of cognition in women was only slowed by 14%, while in men, the loss of cognition was slowed by a much larger 43%.  I haven’t seen an explanation for the difference.  Clearly, more research for a drug that would help women is necessary, since among seniors, they are two-thirds of the Alzheimer’s patients.

The cost of lecanemab is $26,500 a year, but is covered by Medicare if shown that the patient already has dementia and has beta amyloid clumping in the brain.  Since it is only covered under part B, the patient may have to pay $5,000 of the sum.  For patients on Medicaid it cover’s the patient’s 20% contribution.  Since not covered by Part D, it will not be eligible for the Medicare bargaining category in the future.

A new study shows that the two best ways to lower the risk of dementia is to give up or limit alcohol consumption, (also smoking), and to lessen stress.  Previous speakers to OLLI from long age studies emphasized exercise and lifelong learning.

We review some facts about Alzheimer’s.  From the Alzheimer’s Organization, alz.org:

The Association also has detailed studies of Alzheimer’s data.

“At age 80, approximately 75% of people with Alzheimer’s live in a nursing home, compared with only 4% of the general population age 80.”

Here is how the costs of Alzheimer’s are born:

 

 

 

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Studying Electron Motions With Attosecond Pulses, Nobel Physics Prize in 2023

This is a lecture on the Nobel Physics Prize in 2023, to be given at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute at UC Irvine.

First we have to start with how a laser works.  LASER stands for Light Amplification by Stimulated Emission of Radiation, a process theorized by Einstein starting in 1916.

Below, we have a diagram of an atom with an electron in an excited state of the atom.  It will eventually decay to the ground state emitting a photon or electromagnetic wave of frequency f.  However, if that electron is struck by a photon of the same frequency f emitted by a nearby atom, which already underwent the decay, it stimulates the decay and emission of the second photon, which is remarkably in phase with the initiating photon.  This doubles the electromagnetic fields in the photon.  The intensity of the photon beam is then the square of the electromagnetic field amplitude.  This is illustrated in the diagram below, where the frequency is called omega and the energy is h-bar times omega.

In practice, the atoms are first excited by a flash to a short lived excited state, which then rapidly decays to a long lived metastable state, as illustrated below.

This diagram also shows the photons hitting further atoms in the metastable state, with each one adding to the amplitude of the wave and in phase.

To further increase the strength of the wave, it is reflected and passed back and forth through the laser tube full of flash tube primed atoms in the metastable state.  The partial reflector at one ends lets out a continuous stream of laser light.

The microwave equivalent of the laser, or MASER, was built by Charles Townes and Arthur Schawlow in the 1950s.  Townes’ student, Gordon Gould, sketched out the laser and invented the name.  The first LASER was built by Theodore Maiman in 1960.

In order to probe electrons in atoms or molecules, we note that the speed of light is c = 3 angstroms per Attosecond, where an Attosecond is 10^(-18) seconds.  A water molecule has a size of 3 angstroms, so you need electromagnetic radiation with that wavelength, L, which is in the extreme ultraviolet XUV or since f L = c, where f is cycles per Attosecond.

By serendipity, Anne L’Huillier (then at CEA Saclay in France) in 1987 shone a laser into Noble gases, and found photons up to the 21st harmonic in Xenon,  the 29th in Krypton, and the 33rd in Argon.  As in musical instruments, each harmonic doubles the frequency, and halves the wavelength or string length of a cycle.  2^33 = 8 x 2^30 = 8 x (2^10) ^3 = 8 x (1,024)^3 is of order 10^10.  What is also remarkable is that the intensities or amplitudes showed a plateau in magnitude over a range.

The occurrence of harmonics was predicted in 1934 by a previous Nobel Laureate in Physics (1963), Maria Goeppert-Mayer.  She was the second woman awarded, for the Nuclear Shell Model, which she shared with J. Hans D. Jensen and Eugene Wigner.

Now, the plot thickens.  “It was well known, both mathematically and experimentally, that when many waves of equal amplitudes and equally spaced frequency are added together, the sum is a series of short pulses equally spaced in time.”  (Physics Today, Dec. 2023, p. 14.). The pulses here would be hundreds of Attoseconds long and could be used to analyze electron behaviors.  The key to the pulses was to use ionized electrons to respond together, as below.

 

There are then two routes to High Harmonic Generation of single pulses.  First is to use a very short single laser pulse.  Second, is to use circularly polarized light, which only returns the ionized electrons to the same return path when the circularly rotating polarization returns to the initial alignment.

Without going into further detail, Pierre Agostini (then at CEA Saclay) and Ferenc Krausz (then at the Technical University of Vienna) were able to show by different methods that the High Harmonic Generation methods were producing short pulses at 250 Attoseconds and 650 Attoseconds, respectively.  Along with Anne L’Huillier they shared the 2023 Nobel Prize in Physics.

 

Application of Attosecond lasers are in atomic physics, the physical chemistry of small molecules, large-molecule chemistry, solid-state physics, and even biology.  There is also history, which has shown that with new technology, it will have many new applications which are not even envisioned yet.

There are also X-ray Attosecond pulse generators coming from linear electron accelerators.  Here is an example of the work being done at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center 2 mile long electron accelerator by the Stanford Pulse Institute.

Here is a link to their other research areas: https://ultrafast.stanford.edu/research

Other recent laser advances are two crystal single wave pulses of 6 Terawatts of energy, with a possibility of pushing the pulse length down to zeptoseconds, or 10^(-21) seconds.

Posted in 2023 Nobel Prize in Physics | Leave a comment

SC Edison New Countdown to 2045, and Emissions to Reach 1.5º C Now Cut in Half

 

  • Emissions for the 1.5º C Limit Goal Now Cut in Half.

The international IPCC limit of emissions before we reach the 1.5º C or 2.7º F mean earth temperature increase since the pre-industrial age of 1850 was calculated at 500 billion metric tonnes of CO2, where a metric tonne is 10% larger than a US ton.  Current emissions are 42 billion metric tonnes a year.

New Nature magazine articles point out that that limit was based on data up to three years ago, and we have to subtract three years of emissions from that, or about 126 billion tonnes, for today’s estimate.  They also point out that since coal usage has declined, the presence of sun-shielding aerosols has also declined, and that is equivalent to allowing 100 billion tonnes of emissions.  Putting the two together, the emissions left to 1.5º C is about 250 billion tonnes of CO2.  At the current emissions rate, that would be reached in six years, or by 2029!

SC Edison Countdown to 2045 for California’s Goals

This is the new upgrade of SCE’s previous 2019 Pathway plan.

California’s goals are to reach Net Zero emisssions by 2045.  This requires that:

90% of light and medium vehicles will be electric by 2045, and 50% of heavy vehicles.  By 2035, there will be 100% of Zero Emission Vehicle sales.

95% of space and water heating will be electric by 2045.

85% of emissions will be gone by 2045.  

There will also be a negative 15% of emissions from new technologies of hydrogen fuel storage, carbon capture and storage, and new and smaller nuclear plants.  SCE points out that these are not developed yet, and can still create emissions.

Also not yet demonstrated are floating offshore wind turbines, and vehicle to grid energy.  Also, batteries age with the number of discharges.

The following graph shows the new Countdown pathway for new grid transmission in Yellow, and the older Pathway in Blue.

In the past, only 2 GigaWatts (billion Watts) of transmission capacity has been created per year, but the Countdown requires 7 GW created per year up to 2035, and then 8 GW per year to 2045.  This is a total increase of 165 GW of grid capacity.  In the past, it has required 2 to 4 years, or 6 years in one case, just to get approval from the CPUC or California Public Utility Commission, the Forest Service, and local government.  SCE has put out a solicitation for Distributed Resources Projects.  The growth in transmission capacity is shown in the graph of new transmission line power.  These will be 20,000 miles of high capacity lines often at 500 kiloVolts, 230 kV, or 70 kV.

 

The grid power Capacity of California in GW is shown in the table below.  For solar, the power averaged over the days and the year is about 1/5 the Capacity, and for on-shore wind, about 1/3.  Hydro is included in Other.  CAISO is the California Independent System Operator that operates the shared electricity resources for about 80% of the state or 32 million people.  It includes SCE, SDG&E, and PG&E.

The changes add 120 GW of clean energy and remove 14 GW of natural gas for a net 106 GW added.  The discrepancy of 165 GW added transmission and 106 GW added generation may be out of state sources and the larger grid needed for fluctuating renewable energy balances.

The maximum power used in the CAISO is now is about 46 GW in summer heat waves.  A nuclear reactor puts out 1.1 GW. 

SCE also states that electricity demand will rise by 80%.

If these dreams came true, there is a considerable cost savings to households of 40% for all energy uses, assuming that current rates of sources stay fixed.  This is largely due to the increased efficiency of electric vehicles and the lower costs of renewables.

 

The total cost will be $370 Billion, which among 40 million Californians, will be about $9,000 per capita, not counting the costs of the electric vehicles.  For an average household of three that would be $27,000.  With about $3,000 savings per year, that would be paid off in around 9 years.  $50 Billion will be used for increased transmission improvements.

Posted in Emissions to 1.5º C, SC Edison Countdown to 2045 | Leave a comment

Comparing China, the US, and India in Clean Energy Production

China Dominates Clean Energy Production and Devices, While India Consumes Little Energy Per Capita.

Without getting dragged into the politics and personalities of the Foxy Republican Chaos last night, the reemergence of climate change falsehoods has to be fact checked on an economic and scientific basis.

Having written about more than a million US deaths from the pandemic, we cannot again put into power any science deniers.  This year was startling in disasters caused by global warming, which cause hundreds of billions of dollars of damage just to the US.  The destruction of world crops also contributes to overwhelming immigration both to the US and Europe.

The old and disproven climate inaction excuse that China and India need to do more before the US lifts a solar panel came up and was unchallenged in the Chaos.  We provide updated data to show that China is doing much more than the rest of the world, and that India is still a very power poor nation.

In energy use, China does lead in 2021 with 165 Quads, or quadrillion BTUs, but with 25 Quads being clean renewables, nuclear or other, which has to include hydro somewhere.  The US used 98 Quads, but with less clean power, at 20 Quads.  India used only 32 Quads, with 3.5 clean Quads.  

India has a population of 1,408 million, compared to the US population of 332 million, or a factor of 4.24 times more.  So the US used 300 million BTU per person, while India used 23 million BTU per person, or only 7.7% of the US per capita.  Since in the US we buy energy per kiloWatt hour, and 1kWh = 3,412 BTU, these numbers are 88 thousand kWh per person in the US, and 6,740 kWh per person in India.  So the US used 13 times as much per capita.  We can’t put in power somebody whose math is off by an order of magnitude.  Even as a country, India only used 1/3 the power of the US.

But China is also the leading provider of clean energy equipment.  In EV batteries, China produces 75% of the world’s batteries, and does more refining of raw inputs than the rest of the world combined.  That also includes 40% of Tesla’s batteries.  They are also a major producer of EV vehicles.

In solar panels, China produces 75% of the world’s panels, and 80% of those used in the US.

In wind turbines, in 2021 China put up 70% of the world’s growth in wind turbines, as compared to the US only adding 14% of the world growth.  China has 329 GigaWatts (billion Watts) of wind power as of 2021, while the US has 14 GigaWatts as of 2022.  Talking of power, we can’t put into power anybody who can’t look up such facts on the internet in a couple of hours.

In 2021, 11% of China’s new vehicles were EVs, and an additional 2.4% were plug-in hybrids.  In the US in 2022, 5.8% of vehicles sold were EVs.  Considering the larger population of China of 1,412 million, China had 53% of world EV sales.

China has also taken over much of the energy consuming steel and cement production, which are then exported, and shouldn’t be counted against their greenhouse gas production.

We also can’t return to power someone who proposes a ten percent tariff on China on everything, everywhere, all at once, based on an evening meeting, with no studies, which we will all be paying for forever. 

Posted in 2024 Election, Affairs of State, Air Quality, China, Clean Energy, Climate Change, Climate Education, Climate Science, Electric Power, Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy, Solar Energy, Trump Administration, Trump on Climate Change | Leave a comment