California Universities in the Times Higher Education World University Rankings 2020

Thirteen California Universities are included in the Times Higher Education World University Rankings for 2020.  We show these rankings and their main components in the table below.  We also show the top ten in the rankings, which include CalTech and Stanford, and has seven US universities.  California has 9 Universities ranked in the top 100.

Among the top 200 Institutions, the United States leads with 60, or 30%.  Next is the United Kingdom with 28, Germany with 23, Australia with 11, Netherlands with 11, and Canada, China, and Switzerland, each with 6.

The rating categories and the overall ranking weightings are:  Teaching (30%), Research (30%), Citations (30%), International Outlook (7.5%), and Industry Income (2.5%).

The breakdown of Teaching is:  Reputation survey (15%), Staff-to-student ratio (4.5%), Doctorate-to-bachelor’s ratio (2.25%), Doctorates-awarded-to-academic-staff ratio (6%), and Institutional income (2.25%).  Note that 8.25% overall,  or 27.5% of the Teaching evaluation is on a doctorate program, so a lower score does not mean that undergraduate teaching is that bad.

Research is broken down to:  Reputation survey (18%), Research income (6%), and Research productivity (6%).

International outlook is composed of:  Preparation of international students (2.5%), Proportion of International staff (2.5%), and International collaboration (2.5%).

There are 1,000 Universities included in the rankings, so don’t take the low rankings of some as that disappointing.  They look much better in other US only rankings, or of US Public University rankings.

The table of rankings has columns:  Rank, Institution (Inst), Teaching (T), Research (R), Citations (C), Industry income (Ind), International outlook (Int), and Overall score (Over).  Ties in rankings are not designated.

Rank Inst. T R C Ind Int Over
1 U. Oxford 95.4
2 CalTech 92.1 97.2 97.9 88.0 82.5 94.5
3 Cambridge 94.4
4 Stanford 92.8 96.4 99.9 66.2 79.5 94.3
5 MIT 93.6
6 Princeton 93.2
7 Harvard 93.0
8 Yale 91.7
9 U Chicago 90.2
10 Imperial College 89.8
13 UC Berkeley 83.0 90.6 99.2 46.1 70.4 88.3
17 UCLA 83.1 88.6 97.3 51.3 64.1 86.8
31 UCSD 62.6 78.9 97.7 90.3 63.7 78.8
55 UC Davis 62.4 66.9 83.2 51.4 62.4 69.7
57 UCSB 47.9 63.6 96.4 84.5 68.1 69.6
62 USC 54.7 59.3 93.1 39.7 66.2 68.1
96 UC Irvine 43.3 46.5 94.9 58.9 71.9 62.3
179 UCSC 33.1 39.9 97.7 39.1 60.6 55.2
201-250 UC Riverside 31.2 30.3 85.9 39.9 64.7 46.9-50.0
351-400 UC Merced 17.1 21.6 95.3 38.0 42.4 42.4-44.9
501-600 SDSU 23.7 24.4 62.0 35.1 33.9 35.3-38.7

 

Posted in Education, UC Berkeley, UC Irvine, UCLA, University Rankings | Leave a comment

Trump’s Desperate Attempts to Escape Coronavirus Responsibility

Trump’s Desperate Attempts to Escape Coronavirus Responsibility

Update:  September 2:  As a joke yesterday, I emailed a notice of a talk on voting at UCI Law, with the phrase “vote early, vote often”.  Little could I imagine that that is what Trump told voters to do today.  Trump said to vote by mail, and then go vote in person.  This would slow down vote counting if every mail in ballot has to be compared to people signing in at the polls.   If the count doesn’t get decided by December, Trump can declare the election invalid, and stay in power.  Every one of the double voters will be committing a felony.  Someone in Texas was sent to prison for 5 years for accidentally double voting.  Is this really the “Law and Order” President?  Or, it will force states to cancel mail ballots, thus forcing urban Democrats to stand in lines for hours, the usual Republican winning strategy.  Elementary, my dear Watson.

While we used to analyze Trump in extreme psychological states, it is clear now that he is just trying to con the gullible voter into believing that he is not responsible for the Coronavirus failures, or that there is nothing there to blame on him.

First, there is the blame on China, although they only lost less than 5,000, and showed everyone the effectiveness of lockdowns.

Then there is the hiring of an Obsequion fraudster Dr. Scott Atlas, who now turns out to be a mask denier, and a herd immunizer in practice, while rejecting the actual use of the term.  He is not a virus doctor or epidemiologist.  Sweden was unique in relying on their social intelligence, which partly failed.  Under Trump’s misguidance, social intelligence has totally failed in the US in the seriousness of the Coronavirus, social distancing, masking, testing, contact tracing, and probably quarantining.  It’s amazing that there are such fraudsters, but Fox News excels in finding them, and publicly previewing them for Trump’s consumption and hiring of them.  History shows a long record of leadership affected by such fraudsters.

Now, Trump is retweeting the excuse that only 6% of Coronavirus deaths were due to the virus, because careful physicians also listed the average of 2.6 vulnerable conditions which caused such a bad outcome.  Since these conditions can be widespread like over 80 or obese or with high blood pressure, you can’t really blame the conditions alone.  About 45% of Americans have such vulnerable conditions.  Saying that they were going to die anyway, really bugs those of us who have lived for decades with effective modern treatments for these conditions.

Achieving herd immunity without a vaccine will kill 1.5 million to two million Americans.  It would also take four years.

The latest poll shows that 78% of Americans are now distrusting of the FDA about a politically rolled out vaccine.  This was increased by the controversial emergency permission for convalescent plasma therapy released the weekend before the Republican Convention.

Let’s not forget undying hydroxychloroquine, zinc, Zpack, then oleander from the pillow guy.  Flatter Trump, and the world is yours, as Putin established early on.

Unfortunately, there is no effective contact tracing set in play for Trump’s Narcissistic Infectoramas, with their tight, unmasked, and shouting crowds.  Nor is there a public accounting of infected or contact isolating secret service people, but it is said to be in the dozens.

Fortunately, saliva testing has proved to be as good as or better than swabbing.  Unfortunately, the tests are not more than 80% accurate for one test.  They are also much less accurate for Asymptomatic infected people.

We are now learning that reports of the Coronavirus Task Force sent to states flagged many of them red, and were more dire than Trump was reporting.

We also learn that Trump gave a $250 million contract of public money to a public relations firm to convince Americans that the pandemic is not as bad as it is.

There are now 260 cases in 12 states tied to the Sturgis motorcycle rally.

The song for today’s article is “Desperado” by the Eagles:

“Desperado, why don’t you come to your senses”

Posted in Coronavirus, COVID-19, Donald Trump, Health Care | Leave a comment

Countries with the Largest IHME Projected Deaths

We make a table of the countries with the largest projected deaths on December 1 by the IHME projections.  Some of them seem wildly out of line, but they are based on when current restrictions expire.  Undoubtedly, most of the countries with few cases will extend restrictions to keep the number of deaths low.  Their high death projection should then just serve as a warning of what can happen if they drop all expiring restrictions.  Japan and the Philippines are the leading cases of this phenomena.  We also show the IHME projections with 95% masking, and the number of lives savable by masking.  For current deaths, we use Johns Hopkins data for midday August 30.  We order the countries by the projected lives lost on December 1, and go down to 10,000.

Country Current Deaths Projected Deaths With Masking Lives Saved
India 63,498 445,265 291,145 154,120
US 183,020 317,312 249,834 67,478
Brazil 120,462 182,809 165,458 17,351
Mexico 63,819 118,709 106,202 12,507
UK 41,586 62,567
Japan 1,285 62,129 42,096 20,033
Philippines 3,520 58,643 58,079 564
Spain 29,011 52,529 50,331 2,198
Columbia 19,063 48,475 49,807 – 1,332
France 30,611 48,039 36,597 11,442
Iran 21,462 45,397 30,407 14,990
Peru 28,607 45,354 45,193 161
Italy 35,477 41,741 38,413 3,328
Russia 17,045 40,039 21,977 18,062
Iraq 6,959 27,649 13,564 14,085
Netherlands 6,252 24,143 8,326 15,817
Ethiopia 758 23,756 9,357 14,399
Argentina 8,401 23,053 21,,519 1,534
Ecuador 6,555 21,432 21,303 129
Morocco 1,111 21,167 10,300 10,867
S. Africa 14,028 20,162 19,064 1,098
Germany 9,300 19,158 11,217 7,941
Belgium 9,891 17,863 14,914 2,949
Bangladesh 4,174 17,766 8,336 9,430
Kazakhstan 1,523 16,550 16,112 438
Romania 3,,578 14,447 8,449 5,998
Turkey 6,326 14,203 9,526 4,677
Chile 11,244 13,994 13,928 66
Indonesia 7,343 13,700 11,518 2,182
Canada 9,164 13,500 10,400 3,100
Pakistan 6,288 10,672 7,163 3,509
Sweden 5,821 10,092 6,420 3,672

For comparison, China has had 4,722 deaths, and no projections have been made by IHME.

Posted in Coronavirus, COVID-19, Health Care | Leave a comment

“Law and Order” Trump is the Nation’s Biggest Music Thief

“Law and Order” Trump is the Nation’s Biggest Music Thief

It’s one thing to get sued for violating all of the environmental laws by dirtying our the air we breathe and water we drink. And also permitting more climate change with methane emissions and weaker coal plant and auto emissions rules with resulting more damaging fires, hurricanes and floods.  And denying states their right to set their own standards.  And barring your administration from testifying before Congress, and denying legitimate examination of your taxes.  And suing to abolish Obamacare and healthcare for 20 million Americans, during a pandemic, no less.  And getting sued for all of these things by environmental groups and government monitoring groups and the Congress and NY prosecutors.

But stealing the use of Leonard Cohen’s hit “Hallelujah” — that goes beyond the pale.  And using it twice in the mini-concert at the end of your acceptance rant!  It turns out that your campaign asked for last minute approval for its use, and it was denied.  But that did not stop you from breaking down the barriers and play it anyway, and twice.  The Cohen estate and BMI records are considering suing you for its use — twice.  This also puts tenor Christopher Macchio and his small accompaniment at risk for violating the rules as well.

But Wait!  Trump has infringed on the estate of Tom Petty, Rihanna, Elton John, Adele, Guns N Roses, Pharrell, Queen, the estate of Prince, Aerosmith, Earth Wind and Fire, The Rolling Stones, and Neil Young.  Many have filed cease and desist orders, according to Jordan Hoffman in yesterday’s Vanity Fair.  The often misused Rolling Stones song is “You Can’t Always Get What You Want”, which actually is an appropriate description of the failings of the Trump Administration.  That is a total of thirteen singers or groups.

While there may not have been a formal admission fee to the Trump Acceptance Scarathon and Infectorama, many donors may have been present who paid in hefty contributions to SuperPACs or in organizing them.  Hefty royalties should have been paid for the use of such songs.

Trump’s use of “Nessun dorma” or “Let no one sleep” was however appropriate for a man, and a convention, and now a political party, determined to give nightmares to suburban dwellers afraid of federal troops descending on peaceful demonstrators and wiping them out in minutes.  Trump is daily spurring on armed counter demonstrators to create as much chaos as possible.  The possible outcome of this may be that Trump can declare a national emergency and postpone the election.  He has already tried this out because of the Coronavirus.

”Nessun Dorma” is from the opera “Turandot” by Giacomo Puccini in 1924.  Turandot is the cold Princess in ancient China, who will only marry a suitor who can answer three riddles.   Even then, knowledge and brains were required for government leadership.  If a suitor fails at the three riddles, he is beheaded, analogous to Trump’s getting rid of most of his independent government leaders.  As I recall, Verdi was expressing political opposition to Austrian occupation in his operas, which would have been censored and punished by Austrian leaders, similar to Trump’s oppression of peaceful protests.  Puccini, however, was apolitical.  “Nessun Dorma” is sung by the Prince of Tartary, the suitor, celebrating that he would be victorious “Vincero, vincero”.  This is undoubtedly why that aria was included in Trump’s acceptance ceremony.  Hong Kong artist Ai Weiwei used scenes of Hong Kong protests as background for a recent production of Turandot.

Donald Trump Jr.’s speech was all about freedom of speech and even freedom of thought.  But there is no freedom to still steal songs without approval and royalties.  If there is anybody in the country who is denied freedom of thought or speech, it is definitely Trump’s family, as shown by their attempted legal muzzling and insults directed at psychologist and author Mary Trump, Donald Trump’s niece.  Next in line for denial of freedom of speech or thought are the Republican Party office holders or candidates, who are threatened with political oblivion if they do not sing praises of their earthly lord.

Posted in Donald Trump, Humor | Leave a comment

IHME Projections for Leading Coronavirus Countries and Lives Savable by Masking

Update August 30th.  In the MTV Awards, everybody is masked, including the dancers.  Lady Gaga received many awards, and was always wearing creative masks.  She stressed that everyone should wear masks.  This should have a lot more influence than all of the projections below.  They also stressed voting.  The US is about to reach 6 million reported cases.  That is over 1.8% of Americans.  The US has 23.8% of the 25.2 million world cases.  Our death to case fatality ratio is 183,000/6 million = 3.05%.

India is now included in the IHME world country projections.  It could eventually have more deaths than the US, but masking could save 154,000 deaths by December 1.  On that date with current projections, India will have 445,000 deaths, but could lower them to 291,000 with masking.  The US will have 317,000 deaths, but could lower them to 250,000 with masking and save 67,000 lives.

We present the world’s leading countries in Coronavirus Cases, and then some special choices, where many lives could be saved by complete masking, or which have unexpectedly large increases.  They are ordered by the most lives projected to be lost by December 1.  As usual, world data are not all collected on the same basis.  The last column is lives saved with masking.

Country Current Deaths Projected Deaths With Masking Lives Saved
India 62,550 445,265 291,145 154,120
US 181,773 317,312 249,834 67,478
Brazil 119,504 182,809 165,458 17,351
Mexico 63,146 118,709 106,202 12,507
Columbia 18,766 48,475 49,807 — 1,332
Iran 21,249 45,397 30,407 14,990
Peru 28,471 45,354 45,193 161
Russia 16,866 40,039 21,977 18,062
Ethiopia 758 23,756 9,357 14,399
S. Africa 13,743 20,162 19,064 1,098
Bangladesh 4,174 17,766 8,336 9,430
Indonesia 7,169 13,700 11,518 2,1182
Pakistan 6,284 10,672 7,163 3,509
Saudi Ara. 3,813 9,839 7,376 2,463
Israel 894 6,113 5,372 741
Kenya 567 2,187 1,258 929

While India may exceed the US in deaths on December 1 by 40%, they have four times the population.  Their GDP per Capita is $2,000, while the US is $63,000.

Posted in Coronavirus, COVID-19, Health Care, IHME Projections, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

IHME Projections to December Increase, but 67,000 Still Savable by Masking

IHME Projections to December Increase, But 67,000 Still Savable by Masking

The IHME Projections to December of US deaths have risen during August, from 295,000 on August 6 projections, to 317,000 on August 27, and increase of 22,000.  But deaths savable by Dec. 1 by 95% masking are still at 67,000.  An LA Times poll showed only about 40% of people wear masks correctly, and another 10% wear masks incorrectly, not covering the nose.  In present projections, the IHME assumes that current 49% masking continues unaltered.

The United States currently has 5.912 million cases, and 181,704 deaths.  That is a fatality rate of 3.07%, for what it is worth.  It is said to be much lower if there was more testing.  The number of projected deaths per day on December 1 is 2100, and this can be reduced to 920 deaths per day with complete masking.

For election interest, we point out that projected deaths by Nov. 1 is 259,000, and 229,000 with masking, 30,000 lower.  The daily deaths on Nov. 3 are projected to be 1,616, but with 95% masking could be 580.

We present the most dramatic states whose projections highly exceed present deaths, or where many deaths could be saved by masking.  The order is by projected deaths.  We will then contrast some state predictions with the August 6 projections.

State Current Deaths Projections With Masks Lives Saved
CA 12,769 37,645 24,307 13,338
TX 12,523 27,194 27,503 – 309
FL 10,957 24,532 21,776 2,756
GA 5,469 12,247 8,888 3,359
LA 4,904 7,993 6,264 1,729
OH 4,098 7,564 5,318 2,246
NC 2,652 6,426 4,037 2,389
TN 1,701 5,926 3,892 2,034
MO 1,492 5,231 2,856 2,375
SC 2,655 5,023 3,878 1,145
WA 1,905 4,410 2,621 1,789
MS 2,413 4,036 3,235 801
NV 1,287 3,549 2,811 738
OK 786 3,055 1,566 1,489
AR 756 2,906 1,272 1,134
WI 1,113 2,340 1,440 900

The most lives saved with masking is in California with 13,338, which is 20% of the 67,000.  Yet, California already has a statewide masking requirement.  California’s Dec. 1 death total projection is about triple its current deaths.

The next state is Georgia with enforced openings and 3,359 savable by masking.  The 6 states after California with over 2,000 lives saved add up to 15,159 lives saved by masking, or 23%.

States which have increased projections by 5,000 since August 6 are California and Florida.

States which have dropped projected deaths significantly are North Carolina, Ohio, Colorado, Alabama, Oregon, and Wisconsin.

While everybody thinks that their hospitalization for the Coronavirus will be covered by the government, a small survey showed that only 60% have been covered, and the others are getting enormous hospital bills.

Posted in 2020 Election, Coronavirus, COVID-19 | Leave a comment

Trump’s White House Extravaganza

Thank God I did not try to predict what the last night and Trump’s speech would be like.  Again, I am mainly commenting on the Coronavirus leadership, or lack thereof.  Not to mention the misuse of the White House as a campaign backdrop.  But who could have imagined using the Washington Monument and the National Mall for his fireworks show.  Of course, all things Trump have to have his name on top of them in the largest possible lettering, so we have the TRUMP in fireworks, followed by 2020.  Twice.

There were 2000 people sitting next to each other on the White House South lawn, with no spacing between.  Masks were optional, and very few were in evidence.  A slight saving grace was that they were outside, and a slight breeze played with Trump’s combover.

Yet, they yelled (four more years and USA), and exhaled deep breaths when getting up and applauding, then sitting down, many times.  They also sat through Ivanka’s speech, then Trump’s 70 minute self-praise, then the fireworks, then the Opera, and who knows how long before the speeches started.  I’m sure that the city of Washington, D.C., has a limit on the number of people who can gather together.  The only family or Cabinet member masking was Alex Azar, head of Health and Human Services.

Then they played Hallelujah by Leonard Cohen, who fortunately died four years ago, or he would have been very upset.  Hallelujah is a song about a lost love, not a religious song of worship.  

Later, tenor Christopher Macchio sang Nessun Dorma, where the hero claims that he will be victorious.   However, the First Family acted like it was a religious song.  Then we have Ave Maria, to actually mix in religion.  One thing that has always bothered me about the Trump administration is that he held no musical events nor honored American musicians.  Except for Kanye West advising them, and now being used as a faux candidate in Wisconsin to draw away Democratic voters.  After further reflection, the Opera belied the speakers who tried to portray the billionaire Trump New York family as just common folk, and not elites.  Why was it included?  The Italian American vote, as they had included all other ethnic groups in their convention.

Out of boredom, I was trying to count the flags.  There were at least 60.  Typically, it just takes one flag to prove that you are a patriot.

Do I really have to spend time reading the fact checking articles tomorrow?  No, nor at any other time during the next 68 days.  Oh yes, he also mentioned something about hiring liberal professors.  I taught Physics, not politics.  Not even liberal Physics, whatever that might be.

Will I be able to sleep tonight, after the Scarathon?  It’s still 65 days to Halloween.

Posted in Coronavirus, COVID-19, Donald Trump | Leave a comment

The Maskless Trump Praise Convention

Of course, one could write a book about the Trump Praise Convention, previously called the Republican National Convention.  That is not my intention.  I am more concerned about the pandemic, and its lack of influence on that.  The so-called law and order stance, in the absence of anything else, pales in hazards to the loss of a Thousand lives a Day to the Coronavirus!  This is never really mentioned as an unsolved challenge.  The handful of lives saved by Trump, presented in the convention, doesn’t compare at all.  Nor do the few people involved in robberies and arson.

The emergency approval of convalescent plasma by the FDA, despite debate with professionals, one day before the convention, is appalling.  The senseless change of the CDC policy of testing of people contacting Covid infected people, overruled by HHS, is ridiculous and has to be reversed.  It was suspicious that after Trump said that he wanted testing slowed down a few weeks ago, that suddenly there developed a shortage of testing reagents, and tests took a week or more to be reported.  The tracking was taken away from the CDC and suddenly given to an unknown and unqualified company, run by a real estate dealer, probably a friend of Kushner’s.  True to predictions, that failed, and tracking of data has been given back to the CDC again.

We can’t fail to mention that one speaker talked about the “elite experts” who we were in danger of letting run things.  These people are the scientists.  The speaker said we should just follow common sense.  I suspect that every word in the speaker’s talks was either composed or filtered through the Trump White House.  Oddly, no speaker ever said “we may not agree on everything”.  Only one of the Republican Senators who are in tight races have spoken.

Fortunately, the closely spaced cheering events for First Lady Melania and VP Pence were outdoors.  Almost nobody wore masks, except the extra tall secret service agents, photographers, and possibly the press.  In the Democratic Convention, Everybody wore a mask.  At the end of Pence’s talk, people crowded close to him and Trump, and yelled in their faces.  That is maximum risk for aerosols.  Six feet means nothing then.  We know in the White House that everybody getting close to the President has to be tested negative.  It wasn’t clear that was the case with the donor crowds here.  The first and second ladies were also put at risk.

Lately, outside transmission is supposed to be 18 times less risky than indoors.  Aerosols have been found to have a range of 29 feet instead of 6 feet, and can last for hours.  All of these exact figures are of course nonsense.  15 minutes is now in the CDC testing advice.  Less than that of exposure, and you don’t have to be tested.

Four Trump convention days of three hours of continuous praise and worship of Trump each, is 12 hours that the already mask-resistant Republican audience could have been guided to mask up and social distance.  That would allow kids to go back to school, Universities and colleges to reopen, and businesses to reopen.  As Trump’s campaign would put it:  opportunities made, opportunities not kept.  Trump even once called masking “patriotic”.  In 12 solid hours of flags and patriotism, that never seems to come up.

Normally, the convention is all about the delegates.  That was reduced to a one minute flash video, and at a separate venue from all the talks.

While I started pointing out somewhat subtle instances of Trump abusing his executive branch power to boost his campaign, like slowing the mail,  the misuse of the White House, and Pompeo’s official trip, are just blatant.  Only Trump and Barr can sanction or prosecute those that violate the Hatch act, and that is not going to happen.

I was shocked by Trump’s forceful inclusion in the talks of the couple who threatened peaceful demonstrators with guns.  One day later, someone heard the dog whistle and killed two innocent demonstrators.

I appreciated Melania’s speech showing some empathy.  But we were misled in 2016 by believing that Ivanka could have some humanitarian influence over Trump.  This proved to be false.

The conveniently timed establishment of diplomatic relations with Israel by the UAE, for which Trump mysteriously took credit, is really a continuation of foreign influence in our elections.  It now turns out that Trump promised F-35s to the UAE.  This is probably why Trump mysteriously said that we no longer have to safeguard the Strait of Hormuz.  Leaving the control of that crucial strait to a non-Democratic country, the UAE, is a really poor strategy.  The other parts of the agreement, as well as otherS that Trump said would follow, have not yet materialized.

The Washington Post and NY Times are fact checking the statements made by Republicans.  The key ones seem to be labeled false or misleading. What do you expect from a President with 20,000 lies to his record, while in office?

The smooth video coverage is to be expected from an administration that is intimately embedded with Fox News.  What puzzles me, is that the words coming from most speakers sound like they are written by the same speech writing team.  But, as usual, we will never find out who writes this stuff.  The continuous demonization of Biden and of Democrats is really a new low in politics.  But how many times have we said that.

Just one more day to go of maskless anxiety for me about those at risk.  Unfortunately, Trump is inviting a thousand to 1500 to attend his speech Thursday night.

Posted in Coronavirus, COVID-19, Donald Trump | Leave a comment

Category 4 Hurricane Laura is Very Destructive and Hitting Tonight

Update:  August 27.  Fortunately, the flooding level in Lake Charles was less than warned of.  But the high winds brought down many trees and power lines.  Homes are also damaged by the winds.  The winds also broke many windows in high rises.  700,000 units are without power, which we estimate could be 2 million people.

The warm 86 degree F Gulf Waters will strengthen Hurricane Laura to a Category 4 tonight.  It comes onshore tonight and Thursday morning.  We will show slides of its predicted storm surge, flooding, and maximum winds on land, taken off of The Weather Channel Wednesday morning.  Category 4 has winds of 130 mph, up until 156 mph, where Category 5 starts.

If you are in the flooding region, Leave Now!

AccuWeather estimates the damage at $25-$30 billion.

Lake Charles will be under water, and is being evacuated.  It could be hit with 125 mph plus wind gusts.  They are expecting a 15 foot storm surge on the Calcasieu River through it.  The high tide there will be at 7:05 AM.

Six million people are under a hurricane warning or watch.

The storm is 350 miles across.  Its outer bands are spawning tornadoes.  It’s wind speed has reached 150 mph, close to a Category 5.  Wind gusts are up to 185 mph.  The pressure at the hurricane is 939 mb.

The energy density in a hurricane increases with the square of the wind velocity, and essentially doubles with every two increases in Category.  The 150 mph winds compared to the start of Category 4 at 130 mph has 33% more energy, and is 3/4 of the way to Category 5 at 156 mph or 44% more energy than Category 4.

As the Mississippi drainage, South-Western Louisiana is wetlands up to 30 miles inland.  Louisiana contains 40-45% of the wetlands found in the lower states.

Port Arthur has ordered a mandatory evacuation, and is providing buses.  According to flood maps, it will flood if the water rises more than 9 feet.

 

 

 

 

 

The area around the Casino resort will be flooded.

Some maps to follow the news.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted in Hurricane Laura | Leave a comment

Climate Change Makes a Dramatic Election Reemergence

I was expecting a small hurricane or so to occur sometime during the election, to remind us of climate change.  Climate change has taken a far back seat to the pandemic, and the destruction of our economy in the poor efforts to control the pandemic.  But nobody could have predicted a disastrous set of California wildfires and two storms, now a category 4 hurricane, during the Republican Convention.

Trump has been ignoring Natural Laws, and Natural Disorders.

The California wildfires have also generated hazardous air quality conditions,  The fires also occur during a long heat wave, a drought, severe lightning storms and winds, and compromised pine bark beetle forests.  The horrid air quality is, unfortunately, representative of the everyday pollution that people in the coal burning countries of China and India have to suffer with.

The Gulf hurricane, Laura, has been sped up by the 86 degree F Gulf waters warming.  Marco made landfall near New Orleans with maximum winds of 40 mph on Monday night.

Two weeks ago, Iowa was hit with a derecho wind storm with 140 mph winds, which destroyed 14 million acres of crops and grain bins,  and brought down trees.

Below, we present some indicators of the storms and fires, also illustrating some satellite and environmental monitoring sites and apps.

The fire complexes from the North down are the Butte/Tehama/G, the LNU Lightning Complex, the SCU Lightening Complex, and the CZU Lightning.  Since the start of August, 1.5 million acres have been burned, 2,000 structures destroyed, 136,000 are evacuated, and seven have died.

Wednesday evening, Hurricane Laura will make landfall as a category 4 with possible 150 mph winds.

 

Particulate matter of 2.5 microns can enter lungs and go into the bloodstream.  200 parts per million is Unhealthy for All, and beyond 300 is classified as Hazardous.

 

 

 

 

Posted in 2020 Election, Air Quality, Climate Change, Climate Education, Climate Science, Coal, Coastal Flooding, Coronavirus, COVID-19, Donald Trump, Fire Risks, Fossil Fuel Energy, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Houston Flooding, Hurricane Laura, Smog worldwide | Leave a comment