Coronavirus, Trump, and Putin

Posted on July 2, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

Coronavirus, Trump, and Putin

Russia, Putin, and Trump

First, I thought that Trump was covering up the Russian-Taliban scandal of paying the Taliban to kill US soldiers, because there was an election in Russia.  Time has now pushed back the Administration’s knowledge and trying to inform the President to early in 2019.  The only way that the bounty would have worked, if all 60,000 Taliban were informed about it.  It is hard to hide that from intelligence agencies or the military.  It does not reveal any inside contacts or new detection capabilities.  

Any other President would have made a big public fuss and discuss further sanctions against Russia for Putin altering the Russian Constitution to allow him two more 6 year terms.  Putin still has 4 more years on his present 6 year term.  Putin started and served two four year terms from 2000-2008.  He then started his first six year term in 2012-2018, and is on his second six year term 2018-2024.  With two more allowed six year term, he may serve until 2036.  So sixteen years so far, still four more to serve to make 20, and an added 12 more years possible.  That would make 32 years, a third of a century, and the equivalent of 8 American Administrations.  Putin is 67 years old, and could rule to age 83.  The alteration of the Russian Constitution for this is rather buried in the ballot.  So Trump was trying not to rock Putin’s boat by mentioning this, or possibly to embarrass Putin by admitting to the bounties interference, which could engender more sanctions against Russia.  We know what Putin has over Trump:  Putin’s contacts and interference in Trump’s 2016 election, which Trump completely denies, after having been impeached over it.

Trump is Not the Lone Ranger

Of course, we cannot pass up Trump’s ante of comparing himself to the Lone Ranger.  First of course, the Lone Ranger’s mask only covered his eyes, not his nose and mouth, which would also blur his speech.  The Lone Ranger had been a Texas Ranger lawman, not someone who was pursued by the law and covering his back by appointing a subservient Attorney General, and appointing 200 subservient judges.  The Lone Ranger was an exemplar of honesty, not emitting 20,000 lies or misleading statements in three and a half years.  The Lone Ranger partnered with a Native-American, Tonto, unlike Trump with few minorities in his Cabinet or White House.  The Lone Ranger saved people’s lives, instead of suing the Supreme Court to end the healthcare for 23 million Americans.  (Finally, the Texas Governor issued a mandate for mask wearing, and no gatherings of more than 10 people.  The Lone Ranger rides again.)

The Coronavirus is a Nuclear Explosion

The Coronavirus grows by a Reproductive factor R at each stage.  With R greater than 1, it is exponential growth at N stages of R^N..  But all of the descriptions that people use to emphasize or minimize its growth only grow linear with stage N.  A Train Wreck of N cars just hits one more car at stage, and eventually ends at N cars.  An Ember glows out.  Even a wildfire on a linear front, just grows linearly in area or stage N with time as the front moves forward at a constant rate.  Spikes peak, and then decline.  So does a Flare Up.  Yet the exponential growth of R^N is the same math as a thermonuclear explosion.  The increasing rate of growth of the Coronavirus keeps surprising people, but the rate of growth of an exponential is also the same exponential, not constant, as a linear process is.  Let’s get this into people’s heads: it is a nuclear explosion, which can start with any asymptomatic carrier not wearing a mask.

The Tulsa Rally Legacy

Unfortunately, Herman Cain is hospitalized with the Coronavirus.  He is 74 years old.  He attended Trump’s crowded, unmasked, and vocal Tulsa rally.  He tested positive a week after the rally.  While Tulsa infections have grown, there has not been a tracing of the health of all those who attended the Rally, other than the sick Republican National Committee members and the two dozen quarantined Secret Service members.

The Coronavirus Rebels

Added to the difficulties caused by the modern day Rebels who refuse to wear masks, a few are now refusing to collaborate with contact tracers.  Undoubtedly, they are very untrustworthy for self-quarantining also.  They are, however, self-dooming themselves to an earthly Hell.

Trump, Military Base Names, and Confederate Statues

Trump is passing up the opportunity of a lifetime.  There are at least three major military bases which Trump could attach his name to, by removing the names of the Confederacy.  The only problem, is that military bases are named after those who actually served in the Military, not dodged it.

There are also on the order of a hundred Confederate statues, from which Trump could remove their heads, and install his own sculptures.  He could also replace their swords with one of his golf clubs.  He would still probably have to make a new one with him driving his golf cart.  On the other hand, he would lose Southern votes.  But if he preserves the monuments until after he is re-elected …

Posted in Coronavirus, COVID-19, Donald Trump, Health Care, Humor, Politics, Putin, Russia | Leave a comment

Masks Are Effective and Essential, and the IHME Projection Update

Posted on July 1, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

Masks Are Effective and Essential, and the IHME Projection Update

The IHME at U. Of Washington has done a literature study of the effectiveness of masks.  Used in the general population, they are 67% effective in reducing the spread of the Coronavirus.  When the IHME does projections, the wearing of masks by 95% of the population generally reduces future deaths by a half.  95% was chosen as the maximum compliance seen among countries.  A poll shows that 25% of Americans do not see the necessity of wearing masks, through incorrect beliefs.  

Trump actually endorsed mask wearing today.  Of course, he made it all about himself, saying vainly that he looked good in a mask, like the Lone Ranger.  Hi, Ho, Silver.  But, the Lone Ranger’s mask was around his eyes, not his nose and mouth.

The IHME has three projections.  The Current Projection actually has a built in restoration of mandates for two weeks when the daily deaths of a country or state exceeds 8 per million, based on actions from other countries.  For California with 40 million, that would be 320 deaths a day.  For Texas at 29 million, 232; for Florida at 21.5 million, 172; for Arizona at 7.3 million, 58 a day; and for the US at 328 million, 2,624 a day.  Right now, the US has 600-800 deaths per day, described by the Administration as “embers”. 

The Mandates Easing are the larger predictions if no mandates are reimposed.  These first two titles misled me, and probably others.  

The Universal Masks projection saving half of our new deaths, is if 95% wear masks, which is highly unlikely for the US.  In any case, if you want something simple to say to those who do not wear masks when and where they should, it is that wearing masks cuts deaths in half.  Social distancing is also important.  As is staying home when sick, and quarantining when exposed.

Here are the mask wearing habits of Countries and US States and Canadian Provinces.

 

Here are some CNN Coronavirus stories today.  Outdoor activities are 15 to 18 times safer than indoor ones.  California’s Governor Gavin Newsom just shut down 75% of activities for three weeks.  He is especially concerned about the July 4 weekend.  A JAMA article showed that total deaths which could be from the Coronavirus are 28% higher than official ones.  The FDA would accept a 50% effective vaccine.  The Pfizer spokesperson said that even if they had a vaccine by January 1, 2021, it would take a 1/2 to 1 year to get it produced and to get people vaccinated.

Here is the table of Current US and State Deaths, Current Projection, and Universal Mask Projection.

State Deaths Current Proj. Univ. Mask
US 128,000 175,000 151,000
FL 3,550 13,349 7,046
CA 6,109 9,853 8,500
TX 2,491 9,694 5,212
AZ 1,721 4,145 3,062
GA 2,827 5,206 4,119

The US Current Projection is 175,000 with 95% limits of (162,000 to 199,000).  The US Universal Mask Projection is 151,000 with 95% limits of (146,000 to 159,000).  The Current Projection is 47,000 more deaths on October 1.  With Universal Masks, this is reduced to 23,000 more deaths, or by about 50%.  For Florida, the Current Projection of 9,799 more deaths, would be reduced to 3,496 more deaths with Universal Masks, or to 36% of those of the Current Projection.  For Texas, the Current Projection of 7,203 more deaths, would be reduced to 2,721 more deaths, or 38% of the Current Projection.  For California, the 3,744 Current Projection new deaths would be reduced to 2,391, or 64% of the Current Projection.

These results should be posted on and in every bar in these states, included on the bar tab receipts, shown on the bar TVs, and everywhere else people congregate.

More than half of the 40,000 average daily US cases now come from CA, FL, TX, and AZ, which has 30% of the US population.

 

Posted in Coronavirus, COVID-19, Donald Trump, Health Care | Leave a comment

The Government Failure in Big Data and Artificial Intelligence on Fighting the Coronavirus

Posted on June 30, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

The Government Failure in Big Data and Artificial Intelligence on Fighting the Coronavirus

CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield was asked today about information on risks of getting the Coronavirus associated with various activities.  He said something vague about looking into it.

Every keystroke any of us make on the internet, is entered into our sellable internet profile.  Profile is hardly a correct word, since a profile is a tiny outline.  The internet accumulators know us down to and through our souls.  Google is said to read each of our emails.  People who ask for their records, get about a gigabyte of data.  At about 5 bytes a word, this is 200 million words.  At 100,000 words per novel, this is the content of 2,000, hopefully fulfilling, novels.  For the 20 years that Google has been google eyeing us, that is a novel every four days.

Lets take the specific case of flying on an airplane.  Every flight is of course registered, and the FAA knows what the seating arrangement and masking requirement was for each flight of each airline, and where it picked up passengers.  You can’t get on your flight without them recording a picture identification, and checking you against a list.  It would have been easy to phone, email, or mail contact every passenger days after their flight, and see if they had any symptoms.  They could also be tracked for illness through their health care providers, urgent care records, doctor records, or hospital records.  The FAA knows what the air conditioning system of each aircraft is, and when filters are changed in service.  They know where every passenger was seated on the plane.  Big data and AI could crunch this in no time.  We haven’t been paying Homeland Security $300 billion, or $50 billion a year, for nothing.  I leave it to historians to find out why nothing was done, despite Congressional desires to do something.  They could have evaluated the safety of each airline seating arrangement, source and destination of each flight, and period of the virus outbreak, and effectiveness of each air conditioning and filtering type in each part of the aircraft, and effects of the length of flight, and masking policy.  We still know nothing about this, after months of flights and transmissions.

Hospitals keep computer records of procedures and conditions of patients, as do doctors in offices.  This was started in the 60s.  Yet only a few enterprising doctors in a hospital or hospital group are studying such data, and slowly evaluating single procedures or drugs.

Right now, we are in a senseless struggle with non-maskers.  In the fall, we are going to be in a struggle with those forcing kids back to school, from those full of misinformation about the seriousness of the virus and its spread.  We are, in a half a year or more, still going to have to contend with non-vaxers, preventing us from reaching herd immunity.  Today, Dr. Fauci estimated that it would take 70-85% vaccinated to reach that.  Yesterday, Dr. Fauci said that the vaccine may not be 100% effective.  This past year, only 40% were flu vaccinated.  They are making enough flu vaccine for 60% this year.  Flu cases can overload the hospital system, and also confuse cases with the Coronavirus, requiring more testing.  Flu deaths can reach 66,000.  I am hoping that social distancing and masking precautions still in place will also end the flu season with few deaths.

As with all things associated with our losing fight with the Coronavirus, we have made little use of our science and technology, and maximum use of our political posturing.

This lethargy or coverups starts at the top.  We know that Jared Kushner organized Cambridge Analytica, a British company (illegal foreign interference), to attack the electorate in 2016 (with purloined computer profiles).  Of course, both parties are making full use of this, for political gain.  But for fighting the virus?

Probably Big Data accumulators are already running internal studies of who will get sick, and what items do they have to order, and redistribute to handle their business.  Yet the government does not get their help in studying trends.  In the past, such companies have published studies of how the flu was growing.  Unfortunately, Trump’s only association with the largest distributor, Amazon, is to fight with its founder, Jeff Bezos, since he owns the Washington Post, although he refuses to control it.

The CDC is the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  As far as Big Data is concerned, it has not acted as the Center, nor for Disease Control and Prevention.

Posted in Artificial Intelligence, Big Data, Coronavirus, COVID-19, Donald Trump, Health Care | Leave a comment

Politics: Trump, Hannity, Pence, and the Coronavirus

Posted on June 28, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

Politics:  Trump, Hannity, Pence, Coronavirus 

Hannity Subverts Trump’s Campaign

How tricky of Fox’s Sean Hannity to ask Trump an unprepared question.  He asked Trump what did he want to accomplish in his next term.  Trump never answered that obvious and most relevant question, to a conventional candidate.  Hasn’t Hannity learned that Trump thinks up a revolutionary and consequential idea in the middle of the night, or from a TV show, or a right wing website, or from Hannity, and tells Jared to fill it out over the weekend.   By then, Trump has had an Executive Order to sign, and half a dozen Excusers saying that he was just joking.  Republicans now are so used to it, that they never publicly question or evaluate the policies.  Their response is “eh”, or “I didn’t see that”.  Yes, there are “only” 130 days until the election, but that is still 130 ideas and embarrassments away.

The Democratic Left, however, expects their candidate to have held the Left’s brand new and untested opinions for their entire political life. 

Trump canceled his appearances this weekend to stay in D.C. and guard the monuments —single handedly, we imagine.  He must have a very long golf drive, because he did this from his golf course in Virginia.  By the way, Trump recently had a Fox interview with Harris Faulkner, sitting under the feet of the statue of Lincoln, who is turning over in his grave, now that Trump is defending any and all Confederate statues, and military base names.  Estimates are that at least 620,000 Americans died in the Civil War, and these old southern heroes were defending slavery.  When will Trump start building statues to the Coronavirus?

Trump’s Pinocchio:  Mike Pence

Meanwhile, Trump dispatched his puppet, Pinocchio Pence, to the First Baptist Church in Dallas Texas.  Pence said he was not going to have a rally in Texas or Florida, but just go and talk to officials of these breakout states.  Yet what to our wonderous eyes appeared, but VP Pence sitting in a Celebrate Freedom Sunday rally at the Church.  He was wearing a mask, emphasizing to Texans that they should too, as TV spots advertised.  But, the hundred person choir was singing full blast with of course no masks.  The last time this was done in Washington State, almost all of the choir came down with the Coronavirus.  The choir pictures shown in the video were often old people, and many of the choir were severely overweight.  The mask Pence wore, is not a protection against inhaling the plentiful aerosol particles released by the choir.  Fortunately, they were about a half a football field away.  We already have dozens of Secret Service who are quarantining after Trump’s Tulsa Coronavirus fiasco.  They should have protected the Vice President from this.  He is, after all, in charge of the war against the Coronavirus. At some point, the VP also spoke to the audience without a mask.  Aerosols can stay aloft for at least a half hour.  Remember when Trump had Pence fly to a football game, just to get up and leave after the national anthem, because one player knelt?  Trump also had Pence fly and drive to his golf resort in Ireland just to spend a night.  Hope Pinocchio Pence never gets his strings tangled, especially with his growing nose.  He gave a great religious speech, bemoaning the 125,000 American deaths, while being the key speaker at a rally designed to increase that.

The Church had a capacity of 3,000, and 2,200 were attending.  That means that they were hardly separated.  About half of those attending were not masked.  Some Texas areas barred any gathering of 100 people, even outside.  Others set the limit at 10.  There are 20,000 known cases in Dallas County, with a population of 2.6 million, so this is about 0.76%.

Tulsa Rally Seating:

It is now revealed that at the Tulsa Rally, the arena had marked every other seat with a do not occupy sign.  Yet before seating, the Republican Campaign removed all of those signs.  One reporter who attended has tested positive.  Will there be any tracing of the people who attended Trump’s rallies, and now Pence’s rally?

Religious Freedom?

This was combined church service and patriotic celebration.  The church website, firstdallas.org has the rally on its front page, along with its senior pastor, Dr. Robert Jeffress.  It is an evangelical megachurch, with a membership of 12,000.  According to Wikipedia, Jeffress has spoken out against Muslims, Jews, Catholics, Mormons, and homosexuals.  Jeffress is a member of the White House Evangelical Council.  I think that the Church and Rally had Religious Freedom backwards.  The freedom is from a government adopting any religion.  Yet here you had the Republican Vice President during an election, a Texas Republican Senator Cronyn, the Republican Governor of Texas, and Pence praising the Republican Governor, as part of the Church event.  As to freedom of worship, I’m sure that the secret service scanned everyone who entered, and checked their names against a safety list.  The option to not wear a mask and to have a massive event violated new state and local guidelines, reinforcing the culture war of Republicans.  Everyone seemed to be waving an American Flag, removing any separation between Church and State.  The governor of Texas refused to order masks statewide.  A judge declared that it is up to businesses to require clientele to order masks.  No Republican is willing to be the source of such an order.  The music was great, and I hope the choir, orchestra, and audience stays healthy.

Coronavirus Keeps Exploding

The math of the exponential explosion of a Coronavirus outbreak is the same of that of a nuclear explosion.  Nobody has really emphasized this in such terms.  Today, the World and the United States have passed round number markers.  Total world cases passed 10 million, and deaths passed 500,000.  This is a 5% death rate worldwide.  The United States passed 2.5 million cases, or 25% of the world’s cases, yet we have only 4% of the world’s population.  US deaths passed 125,000, or 5% of US cases.  Two estimates of actual total US cases from the CDC which I heard over the News but could not verify on their sight, were 10 times more than measured, and 6 to 24 times those measured.

Posted in 2020 Election, Coronavirus, COVID-19, Donald Trump, First Amendment, Freedoms, Health Care, VP Pence | Leave a comment

Trump Unmasked as the Anti-Zorro

Posted on June 26, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

Trump Unmasked as the Anti-Zorro

Let’s face it:  Trump is the one American who is protected from the Coronavirus by the Secret Service and their testing everybody who comes close to him.  He is also tested every day.  So he is also the only American who doesn’t need to wear a mask to prevent spreading the Coronavirus asymptomatically.  Well, hopefully the Vice President is also protected like this.  But in the Tulsa rally, he was face to face with a hundred cheering Trumpites who were not wearing masks, which has to violate Secret Service guidelines.  We are not allowed to know his full medical condition, but his obvious overweight would give him a tough time if he caught the virus.  Trump still talks as if the mask is to protect him, not to protect others.  If Trump and VP Pence both end up intubated, Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House, would take over!

It is now day 6 since the Tulsa infectionfest, and symptoms usually show up in 5 days.  So, clearly, VP Pence did not catch anything, but the President did not appear at the briefing today.

The joke that I was preparing a month ago, was the Trump was not wearing a mask, lest people recognize him as the thief that stole $3 trillion for the rich, calling it a “middle class tax cut”.

So we have to examine where else the mask appears in our collective memory.  I now want to refer to Trump:  The Anti-Zorro, Who Steals from the Poor and Gives to the Rich.  As Anti-Zorro, he cannot wear a mask.  Zorro’s slash-slash-slash horizontal signature is anti’d by Trump’s vertical slash-slash-slash-…  Zorro’s horse, Tornado, is replicated by Trump’s loyal golf cart, whose name has not been revealed.

Another approach to understanding Trump’s aversion to setting an example was emphasized by the SNL replay last week from the seventy’s of Carly Simon singing “You’re so vain, you probably think this song is about you”.  Trump spent 15 minutes of his infection-costly Tulsa Rally with a fashion show about his silk tie which was too valuable to spill a drop of water on, and his patent leather shoes which were too slippery to walk down a wet ramp from his speech.  I think Trump should own up to inventing the “Trump Shuffle”, which will enthusiastically be adopted by his  devotees, who would also have followed his mask wearing lead, had he adopted it.

Trump actually spends a lot of time perfecting his “orange tan” and his combover, so of course he would be very vain about covering his handsome puss with a mask, which would also mess up his combover.  He IS the person who Carly was singing about.  He makes everything about him, even the most deadly pandemic of the last hundred years.  Oh, it turns out that Pete Seeger once lived in Trump’s public housing project in Queens, and wrote some lyrics about how blacks were systematically excluded from the project.  Trump and his father were fined for this practice.

Finally, Trump wearing a mask would create a contrary image to his Campaign Posture of:  See No Virus, Hear No Virus, and Speak No Virus.  That is why Trump could not show up at the Task Force Briefing today, or any other day.  In the interview with Hannity yesterday, Trump immediately changed the subject to the preservation of statues.  Trump also dodged his protecting the 70 or so Confederate statues, and only talked about statues of Washington, Jefferson, Jackson, and Jesus.  

At least we have the image of Trump washing his hands of the virus.

So, Trump signed an order today protecting Confederate Statues.  Actually, Trump has a golf course and resort in Florida, where he could move all of the statues for historic preservation.  It would apparently be a big attraction for his “core” in the Southern states.    When I was at a Physics Conference in Moscow once, I strolled over to a park where the Russians had stored all of the statues from the Stalin Era.

The penalty for defacing a statue is 10 years.  Yet Trump has spent much time tearing down all of the progress gained under President Obama, highlighted by the Affordable Care Act, which Trump attacked with a suit before the Supreme Court last night.  This started with the Birther Movement, long before Trump ran for President.

We now know why Trump wants to protect unpopular statues.  Trump is conducting a July 3rd fireworks show at the Mount Rushmore National Memorial by Gutzon Borglum in the Black Hills of South Dakota.  It has the sculptures of George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Abraham Lincoln, and Theodore Roosevelt.  Trump has imagined himself being added to the Monument.  Seriously.

 

Posted in Affordable Care Act, Coronavirus, COVID-19, Donald Trump, Freedom of Speech, Health Care, Humor | Leave a comment

Summary of White House Coronavirus Task Force Briefing

Posted on June 26, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

White House Coronavirus Task Force Briefing, first in two months.

(Last night, Trump filed for the Supreme Court to end the ACA, protecting 23 million people with medical care..

Also,130 million would lose Preexisting Conditions protection, including those that are vulnerable to the Coronavirus Pandemic.)

(Someone is absent today:  President Trump)

VP Pence:

45 days to slow the spread.  Opening up America. Truly remarkable progress. 3 million jobs created.  NY, New Orleans, New Jersey ..

Opening up safely and responsibly.

Supporting state efforts.

Next week, traveling to Texas, Arizona, and Florida.  Weekly call to governors.

Suspended travel from China.  Halted travel from Europe.  Repatriation of 95,000 Americans.  45 days to slow the spread.  Reduced US toll from 100,000 to 240,000 deaths.  Testing 30 million, 500,000 per day.  Billions of supplies.  100,000 ventilators.

Surged hospital capacity.

All 50 states reopening.  Task force focused on saving lives.  17 meetings of task force since.   (CNN points out that 11 states have had to walk back some opening.)

30,000 cases a day dropped to 20,000 (now 40,000), now rising across the South. 16 states with rising cases and percentages.

Specific outbreaks.  More testing gives more cases.  Finding more younger  Americans, but they are less at risk.  Hospitalization highly specific.  See the County map.

Hospitalization remains broadly available.

Fatalities are declining.  Remdesivir, steroids, reduce losses.

Slowed the spread, flattened the curve.  Still have work to do.

Continue to do your part, especially younger Americans across the Sunbelt.

Follow guidelines for all of the phases.  34 states reopening safely.  Testing.  Listen to your state and local authorities.  Youth must not carry the Coronavirus to areas where the vulnerable are.

Dr. Birx.  White House Response Coordinator.  Spectrum of disease.  Now being tested to find the asymptomatic and mild cases.  Now know who is at risk, especially those over 80 and diabetes, obesity, comorbidity.

Improved oxygenation, steroids, acute cytokines storm, clotting research, plasma, Remdesivir.

130 counties out of 3,100 US counties in fast rising category.

Next week will present graphics in real time on White House website.  (She presented lots of graphics, without sound or fury, signifying nothing.)

Testing among under 40, since have asymptomatic cases, and need to be tested to stop the spread.  Over 80, stay home.  Use grandchildren for shopping.

Dr. Fauci. Connected as a country.  Opening too early, or citizens not following in an orderly fashion.  Dynamic global process.  We are affecting others.  What is our role?  Everybody wants economy to recover.  Never seen 40% no symptoms, to broad spectrum of complications.  Part of the dynamic process.

A risk for you as you are part of propagating the pandemic.  Majority getting infected now young.  R is greater than 1.  Others are immune problems.  You have a responsibility, as part of the process.

You can be either part of the solution, or part of the problem.  Even the parts that did well, they are vulnerable. The only way we are going to end it is by ending it together.

Alex Azar.  Health and Human Services Secretary.

US helped ending Ebola (resurging).

6 parts to strategy.  Track more cases among youth.

1.  Best testing capabilities

2.  Community testing 

3.  Supplies and sterilize for reuse.

5.  Warp Speed therapeutics. Remdesivir, and dexamethasone.  Plasma

6.  Warp Speed 3 vaccines funded to manufacture, and more soon.

Just 3% of counties are hot spots. (But large ones).

Evaluate who you live with, and what you are thinking of doing.  Lessen time of interaction.  Rock solid foundation to back to school, worship.

CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield. Face coverings, 6 feet apart, appeal to under 40s.  Youth also have comorbidities, but not advertised to companions.

Focus on consequences of the cases.  27% of deaths in US were from pneumonia two months ago, now back to 7%.  

Individuals have to think about their responsibilities.

Questions. Campaign runs without social distancing and masks.  Why?  Pence:  screening and best counsel at events.  Listen to state and local authorities.

Q.  Wearing masks?  Listen to state and local authorities. Same for events and gatherings.

Q.  Spike in cases and reopenings?  Some states okay.  Now seeing under 35s testing positive.  No young person would want to expose a relative.

Dr. Fauci.  What is not working is asymptomatic infections. Paradigm of testing isolation and contact tracing.  Don’t have isolating areas.  Have to study communities.

Dr. Birx.  Community at the center.  Also going to Texas, Arizona, and Florida.  Walk side by side with community leaders as in metropolitan areas.  Fauci agrees.

Q.  Do you expect the death rate to go up.  Pence:  Hope and Prayers (really?).  Half of cases under 35, but people with comorbidities are at risk.

Test all residents and staff at nursing homes.  (About time.)

Q.  Tulsa, staff and secret service now quarantined.  Arizona, packed a church with unmasked.  Pence:  Right to assemble.  People can choose.  Freedom and responsibility important.  Stable in 34 states.  16 states focusing on today. 

Goodbye.

Posted in Coronavirus, COVID-19, Health Care | Leave a comment

Wearing a Mask is Not an Impingement of Human Rights, It Is an Exercise of Them

Posted on June 25, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

Wearing a Mask is Not an Impingement on Human Rights, It is an Exercise of Them

I think the main problem with people not wearing masks is that many people are not informed that they are to be worn to prevent infected people without symptoms from spreading the Coronavirus to everybody around them.  Many people think that the masks are only to prevent them from getting sick, and that they are young and healthy and have the right to take risks, since they will not get really sick.  There also has not involved social pressure memes or comments to embarrass people not wearing masks.

We were used to seeing signs in restaurants:  No Shoes, no Shirts:  No Service.  Other than odors, these never seemed to be necessary.  But nobody protested them.  People are required to be dressed in public, nobody goes around nude asserting it is their rights.  Believe me, it would cause car accidents.  So a mask requirement cannot be argued against as a personal or Constitutional right. 

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.”   

This comes from the Declaration of Independence.   Before Liberty, come Life, which is the purpose of wearing masks, until we get a vaccine, and until everybody takes it.  It also blocks the 15% of the infected from being hospitalized, and not being able to pursue their Happiness.

The Preamble to the US Constitution is:

We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence,[note 1] promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

This has the phrase:  “promote the general Welfare” which also refers to health as well as economics.

We have laws to protect pedestrians, to protect drivers, to require helmets for motorcycle riders, many of which were considered as restrictions on liberty, but all of which protect both the drivers as well as others on the road.

The CDC today said that the actual number infected could be 10 times the number that have been confirmed in tests.  

The medical community now says that those with a BMI greater than 30, which is 42% of the population, are at risk for serious reactions to COVID-19.  That is labeled Obesity (Class I).

The new cases are now shifting to a younger population.  In several locations, half of the cases are of adults younger than age 44.  Pregnant women may be 6 times more vulnerable for hospitalization.

I think that the Individual Liberty argument arises because it was used as a ground to fight any restrictions on gun ownership, by the Gun Lobby, as well as the argument that any incursion on gun ownership, no matter how small or reasonable, would lead to the totality of “taking our guns away”.  The entire vast library of US, State, and Local law books are filled with laws that have limits.  That is a false argument.

Some say that the Coronavirus is not worse than a cold or the flu.  Right now, the death rate per detected case is 5% in the US.  Even if the CDC’s new estimate is that 10 times as many people are infected, that still leaves a real death rate of 0.5%, which is 5 times more deadly than the flu.  The flu’s also have vaccines, and do go away in the summer, which the Coronavirus is not doing.

People who do not mask and choose to hang out closely with others who do not mask are now confronting 24 million who already are infected, or 7%, or 1/14 Americans.  They will eventually become infected.  Without a mask, they will infect their friends and family.  They have a 15% chance of ending up in a hospital, and running up bills in the hundreds of thousands of dollars, which responsible people will be paying off for their lives.  Thanks a lot!  Do those about to be victims of you and your illness funders have the right to require you to wear a mask to protect ourselves?  You bet we do.  We will also be paying the hospital bills of your family and friends that you infect.

Everybody wants their jobs and income back, and to make things the way they were.  The non-maskers, starting with the President, are actually doing their best to fuel the new exponential growth of the virus, but this time in states not hit before.  They will not be appreciated by workers put at risk by contact with them.  The non-maskers will only have themselves to blame when they lose their jobs again.  It is up to us maskers to inform them of the truth.

Just a short table of where the Body Mass Index (BMI) reaches 30.

Height Weight
6’ 3” 240
6’ 2” 233
6’1” 227
6 ‘0” 221
5’11” 215
5’10” 207
5’9” 203
5’8” 197
5’7” 191
5’6” 186
5’5” 180

California Governor Newsom also asks that people cooperate giving information to contact tracers, which will remain confidential.

Hopefully, with a vaccine created and distributed within a year, we will all be able to unmask, and get on with our lives, obeying all of the thousands of other rules which we were raised with.

Posted in Coronavirus, COVID-19, Freedoms, Gun Control, Guns, Health Care | Leave a comment

IHME Projections With Universal Face Masks Cuts US Deaths by 33,000

Posted on June 24, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

IHME Projections With Universal Face Masks Cuts US Deaths by 33,000.

The June 24 IHME projections now include the reductions in deaths which would occur if 95% of us wore face masks.  This is now, unfortunately a political issue, or one for those without culture.  This post just concentrates on the numbers.  The IHME projections for deaths by Oct. 1 have now reduced from 201,000 to 179,000, or by 22,000 from earlier.  With 95% face mask usage, that could be reduced to 146,000, saving 33,000 lives.  There are currently 122,000 US Coronavirus deaths.  So this is a difference of 57,000 more deaths by Oct. 1, or 0nly 24,000, which is only 42% as many.

We show the top 18 states by deaths, their projected deaths with presently planned social distancing, and projected deaths with 95% mask wearing.  Five states stand out as greatly reducing deaths with mask wearing.  These include the three largest states, California (40 million population), Texas (29 million), and Florida (21.5 million), as well as Georgia and Arizona.  California now requires mask wearing, and the governors of Texas and Florida strongly recommend it.  Texas will not allow Houston or Harris County to require it.

California has 5,715 deaths, and is projected to rise to 11,631, which can be reduced to 8,745 with mask wearing, saving 2,886 or about 3,000 lives.

Texas has 2,270 deaths, and is projected to rise to 13,736, which can be reduced to 5,582 with mask wearing, saving 8,154 or about 8,000 lives.

Florida has 3,281 deaths, and is projected to rise to 15,393, which can be reduced to 7,523 with mask wearing, saving 8,140 or about 8,000 lives.

Georgia has 2,698 deaths, and is projected to rise to 6,614, which can be reduced to 4,269 with mask wearing, saving 2,345 lives, or about 2,300.

Arizona has 1,467 deaths, and is projected to rise to 5,687, which can be reduced to 3,195 with mask wearing, saving 2,492 lives, or about 2,500.

Mask wearing in these five states can save 24,017 lives alone, which is 73% of the 33,000 lives saved nationwide by mask wearing.   Of the 24,000, 21,000 possible lives saved are in the four Republican states, which are afraid to mandate and enforce mask wearing.

In world country projections, the worst is Brazil, with 53,830 deaths, and a projection of 166,000.  If they have 95% masks, the projection is reduced to 147,000, saving 19,000 lives.  Iran has 9,996 deaths, but a projection of 52,000, which can be reduced to 28,000 saving 24,000 with mask wearing.  Mexico has 24,324 with a projection of 88,000, which can be lowered to 80,000 with mask wearing.

The IHME projections used to have very large 95% error bars.  Now there are only the curves given.

Here is the table of States, Current Deaths, Current Projections to Oct. 1, and Projections with 95% mask wearing.

State Deaths Projection With Mask
NY 31,257 31,837 31,729
NJ 13,076 13,808 13,551
MA 7,937 8,802 8,553
IL 6,770 8,487 7,717
PA 6,518 7,799 7,238
MI 6,114 6,534 6,354
CA 5,715 11.631 8,745
CT 4,287 4,513 4,473
FL 3,281 15,393 7,523
LA 3,152 4,135 3,702
MD 3,108 3,611 3,434
OH 2,755 3,781 3,280
GA 2,698 6,614 4,269
IN 2,578 3,303 2,832
TX 2,270 13,736 5,582
CO 1,667 1,920 1,796
VA 1,661 1,788 1,759
AZ 1,467 5,687 3,195

 

Posted in Coronavirus, COVID-19, Health Care, IHME Projections | Leave a comment

The Judicial Corruption of Trump, Barr, McConnell, and the Republican Senate

Posted on June 21, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

The Judicial Corruption of Trump, Barr, McConnell, and the Republican Senate

You don’t need to be a law professor to see mob rule.

Yesterday’s huge corruption of justice is Trump’s Tulsa Rally promise to select and name 50 people who he will put in line for his next Supreme Court pick, and take finalists from.  What justice or lawyer doesn’t want to be on the Supreme Court?  We suspect that each of them are now under Trump’s thumbs to give obedient rulings on all of the plethora of cases raised by the populace to oppose rules imposed or dropped by the Trump Administration, or being ignored by the Administration, or by the Department of Justice.  Even if some of the considered judges can remain honorable, they are now all suspect.  This destroys the American system of Justice.  Trump and McConnell will have staffed about 200 federal judgeships.  All of those are now suspect just to qualify for the list of 50.

Yesterday completed the Friday Night Massacre of the head Prosecutor for Southern New York, Berman, who had been investigating Trump associates, Deutsche Bank through which Trump businesses have been funded, supposedly by Russian money, and the Turkish funds.  The declaration that Berman had resigned was preemptively made by Barr to the Press in the hidden news cave of 9:15 PM Friday night.  Berman said that Barr couldn’t fire him, and he would stay until the Senate legally voted for his replacement.  Eventually, he left office when the President fired him, via a letter from Barr, and a deal to replace him with his Deputy.  But, publicly, Trump denied that he had fired Berman, and wiped his hands of this dastardly deal.  Berman is supposed to be replaced by a non-prosecutor who worked to represent Deutsche Bank!  Let the Fox guard the Chicken Coop!  Over a hundred former Prosecutors have signed a letter opposing the firing of Berman.

Actually, to restore confidence in the Supreme Court, when the next Democratic President is elected, and the Senate become Democratic, should that ever happen, Justice Gorsuch should resign.  He is occupying a position stolen from a Democratic balance by Mitch McConnell and his Republican Senate.  Justice Kavanaugh should also resign then, since he was opposed by many lawyers for showing a lack of judicial temperament, and was cleared of sexual harassment charges by a very limited investigation.  His scandal has only gotten worse with time.

Not finally, but to stop somewhere, the disenfranchisement of the Georgia election by making Democratic districts stand in line for hours again, by a Governor who himself was election commissioner when he was elected, is ridiculous.  This is just a tiny example of Trump’s monetarily attempting to force states to forgo mail-in ballots in the time of the reaccelerating pandemic, for his own political advantage.

It has been bad enough to suffer under potentate Trump for four years, realizing that the America which elected him is not the educated country of  our dreams.  It is much worse to see the failure of impeachment, leaving nothing to stop this mob takeover by Trump, Barr, McConnell, and Republicans.

When Trump says that he is the Law and Order President, he sarcastically means that he now runs the Law, and gives the Orders.

 

Posted in AG William Barr, Coronavirus, COVID-19, Donald Trump, Dreamers, Equal Treatment Under the Law, Gerrymandering, Impeachment, Kavanaugh, Mitch McConnell, Politics, Supreme Court, Voting Rights | Leave a comment

Donald Trump: The Pied Piper of Tulsa

Posted on June 19, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

DJT, the Pied Piper of Tulsa

Update:  Afterwards.  Thank God that of the supposed 1 million followers to pack the arena and area, only about 12,000 showed up (my guess) to fill the bottom half of the arena.  That is about 1%.   People are smarter than we imagined.  Some of those interviewed were poorly informed, thinking that the Coronavirus was only as bad as a cold or the flu.  While there were no seats on the ice rink, many people stood just facing the President for the whole speech, which is very dangerous.  Also, when entering the arena, there were zig-zag lines where everybody passes many people several times, without any social distancing.  Very counter to social distancing.

Update:  June 20.  In fairness, the BOK center is a very high ice arena, with steeply rising stands, so released virus droplets will circulate outwards and upwards, and away from the spectators.  Also, there are no chairs on the ice base level, so nothing to linger there, and the President and his party are far from the stands, so they are protected.  The overflow crowd is densely seated, but they are outside, which also gives them protection.  Usually, there are carefully chosen people standing behind the President, but this does not appear to be the case so far.

Update:  They emptied out the overflow and brought them inside, where the upper seats are mainly empty.

Update:  Trump stated that people should turn off NFL football if players knelt and “disrespected the flag” when the National Anthem played.  However, almost all of Trump supporters are wearing cut up American flags, including the giant flag in the press with Trump’s picture on it and Keep America Great on it.  All of these are violations of the Flag Code to respect the flag, which Trump must have had drilled into him at his Military Academy.  In terms of contact tracing, there are many pictures and tapes of who is seated next to or in front of each other, which can be used later, if testing sites or hospitals interview patients to find out who attended the rally.

 

The analog of Trump and the Coronavirus to the Pied Piper story is too striking to pass up.

The Pied Piper came to the city of Hamelin and offered to take the rats out of the town, supposedly to protect them from a plague.  He did this successfully, supposedly colorfully dressed, and playing a piping instrument.  He then got rid of the plague rats, drowning them or over a cliff.  When he came back to be paid, he was only given a pittance.  So, when the adults were in church, he marched the children out of town, and they were never seen again.

Clearly, Trump eventually stumbled and was pushed to give some leadership to our nation’s lockdown and battle against the Coronavirus, but left most up to the states and cities.  Then, he wasn’t paid off with high ratings, for his claims of being the best plague fighter, like the world had never seen before.

Finally, he gave up on fighting, and tried to get paid off with restoring the economy, despite the viral resurgence that would follow.  Finally, he led those of his followers who were behaving like children in the face of warnings by informed adults, and subjected them to his most infectious rally in Tulsa Oklahoma, tomorrow, June 20, 2020.  This ignorant reincarnation of the plague will stick with Trump forever as the “Pied Piper of Tulsa”.

These stories are taught to children for a reason, to not repeat these in their lives, and especially, to not follow demagogues.

For such a large group compacted together and yelling, I doubt if the six foot limit has any meaning there.  People will be inside for five and a half hours.  I fear that the President and all of his party may well be infected.

Postscripts:  Trump, the supposed “Law and Order” President, tweet-threatened that counter demonstrators would be roughly treated in Tulsa, but not his own demonstrators.  The Oklahoma Supreme Court also threw out a suit to halt the Trump rally.

Personal note:  as an outdoor piping Ocarina player, I can say that animals totally ignore music, except I imagine, for a few birds, who occasionally pause in their tweeting.  Unlike our President.

Posted in Coronavirus, COVID-19, Donald Trump | Leave a comment