We Can Achieve the Paris Agreement Even Without Trump
The Washington Post argue that Trump should keep the US in the Paris Agreement, because it doesn’t cost us anything, and we can still act as an important world leader. There is no penalty if we do not achieve our stated goal. But they didn’t look at how close we can come to the goal, even without Trump supporting it.
The peak of US greenhouse gas emissions was around 2005, and serves as a reference point for our reductions. Although the exact amount isn’t needed, it was 7,313 MMT CO2e (million metric tons of CO2 equivalent) in 2005. In 2015, it was 6,587 MMT. It is called a 11.5% decrease, in a decade.
The commitment that President Obama made to the Paris Agreement was, by 2025, another decade from the latest 2015 number, to reduce our emissions by 26-28% compared to 2005. Several news sources miss the reference to 2005, implying that Isis from now, which would indeed be a large amount in a decade. But, in fact, we have already made the 11.5% decrease toward our goal. That is already 44% of our way to the lower 26% goal.
A large amount of the reduction was switching to the much less polluting natural gas produced by fracking, which is also cheaper than coal. This was just brought about by the market, not by regulations of the Clean Power Plan, which is still blocked in court. There is also public pressure to switch away from polluting coal with its dangerous ash mountains, acid rain, and mercury pollution. This will even be more heightened now that Trump has sent forth to all the land an executive order to allow water runoff from coal mines into our streams.
Let’s assume that in the next decade, a similar 11.5% reduction occurs by both switching to natural gas, and the Republican Midwest states producing wind power, as DOE Secretary from Texas, Governor Rick Perry has brought about there. That means that by 2025 we will have a 23% reduction, almost achieving our 26% goal.
Now let’s add in a decade of modern technological advances. Let’s start with more efficient and cheaper solar power. Then more conversion of household appliances to newer, more energy efficient ones. Now consider self drive cars and more sophisticated traffic signal synchronization to smooth out traffic to the best mileage speeds. Then there may be more efficient variable compression gas cars. And cheaper batteries for all electric or plug in hybrid cars. Very possibly, the price of gas will rise, making smaller and more fuel efficient cars more economical. Then, there might be greater car pooling, leading to less traffic congestion. And more working from home or regional business centers.
Global warming also has its own forcings to bring about change. More frequent and longer heat waves are expected. Snowpack accumulation starting later, melting earlier, and bringing more rain than snow will lead to summer droughts. These lead to more forest fires that are also larger. More evaporation from warmer sea water could lead to stronger storms and more flooding. Increased Arctic, Antarctic, and Greenland ice melting will continue sea level rise. These will affect farmers and others all over the country. Denial of climate change will be challenged by rising insurance costs, crop losses, and water scarcity. The importance of climate change will increase as a political issue.
Ten years is a long time politically. Trump may not go for a second term, or be defeated, leading to a reinstatement of a climate aware administration to reinstate even more progress. The 2018 election will be challenging for Democrats in the Senate, with so many Democratic positions vulnerable. There are still 17 of the 50 states that are Democratic, and they contain 40% of the US population. They will continue to push local clean energy projects.
So we may well achieve our Paris goals, and inspire other countries to continue their efforts. Trump could claim another victory, even with little effort. Even if he withdraws us, which is a four year process, the world will still be kept abreast of our progress. This progress depends on all of us, not our misled leader.
