Republican Delegates Left and Winner-Take-All and Winner-Take-Most-States
Today is March 23, and there are 848 Republican delegates yet to be chosen. Donald Trump has 739 delegates, but 1237 is needed to win the primary. So Trump is short by 498 delegates, and if they were awarded proportionately, he would need 498/1237 = 59%, something he almost never achieves in the three candidate field. Fortunately, the establishment Republican National Committee and State Committees have arranged several Winner-Take-All (WTA) primaries after March 15 to speed the leading candidate on his way.
There are four real winner-take-all primaries left with. 16+57+51+29 = 153 delegates, where just the leader in a state wins all of a state’s votes.
There are four winner-take-most states, where at-large delegates are winner take all, and each congressional district with 3 delegates goes to the winner of each district. The four states are broken up as Wisconsin 42 = 18 at large + 24 in districts; Maryland 38 = 14 + 24; Pennsylvania 71 = 17 + (54); and California with 172 = 13 + 159. Pennsylvania is an exception, since it’s 54 elected district delegates are uncommitted!
The sum of the at-large WTA delegates in these 4 states are 62. The sum of the committed delegates is 207, and Pennsylvania has 54 uncommitted.
The sum of all committed WTA + WTA at-large + winner-take-district is then 153 + 62 + 207 = 422 delegates.
Recall, Trump needs 498 delegates. If he could win all of the above WTA categories, he gets 422, and is only 76 short, to be easily picked up elsewhere. But maybe he does not turn out to be the “Winner” that he thinks he is.
Trump is already leading in California and New York.
The uncommitted delegates in Pennsylvania will be lavishly wooed, both by Trump and by the stop-Trump movement. (In the game of bridge, there is already a term called “no Trump”.) Since many candidate delegates run in each district, the Presidential primary candidates may be wooing them to run as committed, in which case the uncommitted may end up partly committed.
