Political Thoughts: Saudi Oil, Trump Businesses, Wisconsin and Michigan, and 2020 Electoral Votes
Saudi Dunes: The Oil Will Flow
I refer to a motto in the SF book Dune, where the mined spice is used to allow interstellar navigators to reach their targets. The saying is “The Spice Will Flow”, meaning that nothing will stop that business. The same is true of Saudi oil. It doesn’t matter who is in charge of the government, the monarchy and the whole country depends on the oil. The supposed future $250 billion or $500 billion Saudi trade with the US, and the $110 billion in military purchases bubbles were popped to reveal somewhere between $4 billion and $14 billion currently. Also, half the new jobs would be done in Saudi Arabia. The real questions are who will succeed in the Monarchy, and why are we selling them bombs and bombers for questionable use?
Trump’s Business Sense
What we know about Trump’s business sense. Golf courses, hotels, casinos, and a “you’re fired” TV show. He is an expert in golf greens and gold hotel lobbies. He has no US bank credit, and has to go abroad to banks that launder money, including Russian money. Saudi investments bail out his hotels. He returns no emoluments, as he promised he would. He brags during a Presidential debate about not paying taxes. He can’t reveal his tax returns. He buys up competing casinos in a lose-lose situation, and bankrupts them. He deals with mob-dominated building trades in New York. He runs a phony university trying to take people’s life savings. But worst of all, he drives golf carts on his own greens.
Democratic Dominance in Wisconsin and Michigan, and Trade
Trump has lost the Governorships and Legislatures of two of the three rust belt states that put him over the top in electoral votes. Gone Dem are Wisconsin and Michigan, but not Pennsylvania. Trump won these three states by less than 1% of the vote. To hold these states, Trump has instituted steel tariffs, auto job percentage limits and salary minimums abroad, and opened dairy imports to Canada, disrupting many other sectors along the way. He also is almost completely tariffing China, to the tune of $500 billion of trade, led by an anti-China author who Jared found on Amazon.
Back to Electoral Votes.
Of the 538 electoral votes, a candidate needs half, 269, plus 1, or 270. Trump won with 306 to Clinton’s 232. Trump’s victory over 269 was by 37, where he only needed 1 over to win. The “Blue wall”, which crumbled from neglect in 2016, is composed of Wisconsin, with 10 electoral votes, Michigan with 16, and Pennsylvania with 20. The first two total 26, and all three 46 electoral votes. These three added up with the rest to give Trump’s +37. If in 2020 Trump loses only Wisconsin and Michigan, it will cost him only 26 votes, and he would still win by 11 electoral votes, or 280-258. Democrats still need Pennsylvania’s 20 or Florida’s 29 to win in 2020.