Nov. 19, Orange County, The Blue Tide Keeps Rising

Nov. 19, Orange County, The Blue tide keeps rising.

First, we celebrate the Democratic wave in State Governments.  Six states currently with a split government will be fully Democratic in 2019.  Alaska will go full Republican, though.  But on top of this, four states will go from full Republican control to full Democratic control, namely, Michigan, Wisconsin, Kansas, and New Hampshire.  The comments on the Michigan and Wisconsin shift for the 2020 Presidential race are in the previous post.

The short is again that all four Orange County district races, and our local State Assembly district, are led by Democrats, called by the AP, and their tide keeps rising.  The rate of counting ballots has halved, so we are still looking at three more days of counting.  So they may finish Friday or Saturday.  Will also discuss CA 21.

Real Time Reporting:  LA Rams just intercepted Kansas City, with 1:18 left, and can win 54-51, the highest scoring Monday night football game.  But KC has three time outs.  Rams have to punt.  1:04 left.  First game in NFL history where both teams have scored 50 points.  :25 left.  Rams intercepted KC!!!  :13 left.  Both teams were 9-1 going into the game.  Rams WIN to 10-1.  1,001 yards gained in the game!  Jared Goff of Rams, 31-49 passes, 413 yards, 4 TD, and a rushing TD.  105 combined points is the 3rd most in NFL history.

Because of the Malibu fire air pollution, the Rams had to practice in Colorado Springs.  See  three posts ago for a track of air pollution.

Talk about comebacks, we may see that in CA 21. The number of votes is only about half that in our Orange County districts, and is spread over four counties.  Today, incumbent Republican David Valadao is leading Democratic challenger TJ Cox by 52,081 to 51,151, or 930 votes.  Yet in the principal Kern County part, they added 3,060 votes today, splitting highly Democratic 2154, to Republican 906.  Before, the Republican lead was a more commanding 2,178, which dramatically shrunk to 930.  Lets see what tomorrow brings.

CA 45

D Katie Porter              147,001, a growth of only 1,106, quite a bit less than the growth of 2,751 votes on Saturday, to 51.7% from 51.6% Saturday.

R (I) Mimi Walters.    137,571, a growth of only 869, quite a bit less than the growth of 1,782 on Saturday, dropping to 48.3%, from Saturday’s drop to 48.4%.So the vote count is slowing.  The difference is now 9,430, up only 437 from the 8,993 difference Saturday, to 3.4%.  

Of the 1,975 gain in total votes, D Porter got 56%, and R Walters got 44%, giving a 1.27 D/R ratio.  This was less of a split than Saturday when D got 61%, and R got 39%, giving a 1.54 D/R ratio.

CA 48

D Harley Rouda.                  145,154, a gain of 3,251 today, twice as large as the gain of 1,580 on Saturday, to 53.3% from 53.2%.

R (I) Dana Rohrabacher.   127,176, a gain of 2,360 today, larger than the gain of 1,415 on Saturday, slipping slightly to 46.7%.

D Rouda’s lead is now 17,978, up 981 from Saturday, increasing to 6.6% from 6.4%.  As a percentage of the 5,611 total vote gain, Rouda got 58%, and Rohrabacher got 42%.  

While Porter and Rouda have about the same number of votes, separated by about 2,000, Walters has about 10,000 more votes than Rohrabacher, showing voters disfavor with him.

CA 39

D Gil Cisneros  117,151, a gain of 4,076, to 51.0%.

R Young Kim.   112,709, a gain of 3,129, slipping to 49.0%.

D Cisneros’ lead is now 4,442 out of 229,860, or 1.93%, up from 1.57%.  Of the 7,205 gained, Cisneros got 56.6%, and Kim got 43.4%.  That is a D/R ratio of 1.30.

State Assembly District 74

D Cottie Petrie-Norris.   96,238, up only 841 compared to up 1,340 on Saturday, staying at 52.5%. 

R (I) Matthew Harper.   87,082, up 631 compared to up 795 on Saturday, and staying at 47.5%.

The difference is now 9,156 votes or 5.0%, up from 4.6% on Saturday.  Of the 1,472 total votes gained, 57% went D, and 43% went R.  That is a ratio of 1.3 in favor of the Democrat.

Of the 476,011 votes to count after Election Day, 384,673 or 80.8% have been counted, up from 74.7% Saturday.  have been This gain of 6.1%, up from the 4.7% on Saturday.  With 19.2% left to count, at the 6.1% a day rate, it could still be 3 to 4 days.  However, the winners seem secure, and all of the races have been called by AP.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For a decade I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in lecturing and attending classes at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute (OLLI) at UC Irvine.
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