What Could Republicans Come to Regret From a Passive Impeachment Rejection?
Less than three years into Trump’s term, look at all of the chaos, disregard for Republican policies and Constitutional and government norms, weakening of long standing alliances, repeated collusion with Putin, cheating on two elections, losing the House, Trump’s backing questionable candidates and judgeships, and forcing all of them to support him and his policies.
Once Trump is deemed unimpeachable even for fixing his elections and for disputing Congress’s powers, nothing can stop him from continuing these and other affronts on Democracy. Senate Republicans will be blamed for all of the easily foreseeable continued chaos, and the unforeseeable.
We know that Trump and the Republican Senate have appointed William Barr as Attorney General, who is backing the insane theory that this President has Absolute Power over Congress and the Courts, and apparently, the Constitution. Barr is doing everything to subvert normal limits on Trump, and prostituting the Department of Justice. It is possible that the embarrassing fake investigation and appointment of Justice Kavanaugh, who demonstrated a lack of judicial temperament during his hearing itself, will result in a grateful justice obeisant to Trump. Then the court will cede any oversight over Trump. Chief Justice Robertson could be a conscientious switch in these decisions.
The hijack of a supposed court-like impeachment with an unprejudiced jury has already occurred by McConnell’s stating that the Republicans will not vote for it, by McConnell’s decision to let Trump and his lawyers guide the action, and by Trump’s continued meeting with the Republican Senators who are the “jury”. Since the Trump team chose to send no witnesses or lawyers to the House Judiciary hearings, since they blocked all witnesses that they could, and all documents, it is possible that they are not going to factually contest the proceedings. Unless, as they have stated, they are waiting for a more favorable environment and reception.
Tramp and Barr’s Absolute Power outlook will only encourage Trump’s overwhelming ego to act with Absolute or Imperial power. He brags that only he can solve problems, and that he is the greatest President or leader of all time. He mistrusts FBI, CIA, State, EPA, NOAA and all science advice and advisors as well. He can’t deal civilly with any Democrats, or leaders of movements like environmentalists. Trump has continued to replace any advisors who can stand up to him with those that he has chosen and who swear loyalty to him. This is the way Trump single handedly ran his private business, with only his loyal family to help and trust, and those who served his father. This isolates him from truthful and experienced government experts and advice.
Whereas Senate and House Republicans are State and district elected and accountable to them for their votes and actions, when they clear Trump of impeachment charges, they become responsible for Trump’s crimes, destruction of the Constitution, and obstruction and denial of Congressional oversight.
The Senators, who act as judge and jury, have to take a separate oath (copied from Newsweek):
I solemnly swear [or affirm, as the case may be] that in all things appertaining to the trial of the impeachment of [the person being impeached], now pending, I will do impartial justice according to the Constitution and laws: So help me God.” Note the words: impartial justice.
Jurors can be dismissed who have conflicts of interest. Shouldn’t Senator McConnell recuse himself, since his wife is Secretary of Transportation Elaine Chao, who works for Trump?
Would just a Senate warning deter Trump? The next day after Mueller’s ineffective personal hearing before the Congress, Trump made the quid pro quo phone call to the President of Ukraine. If the Supreme Court does not approve of the Trump freeze on his taxes, or the hushing of his main cabinet members in answer to House subpoenas, or his blocking of House document requests, or hushed Trump retirees become court-released to speak (Rick Perry, Don McCann, John Bolton) or write million dollar books, then Republicans will have to face up to even stronger impeachment charges, or numerous other scandals at or right after the convention.
Of course, Vice President Mike Pence would make a fine President from the Republican perspective. He has kept a low profile, except for a phone call with Ukraine which he is not revealing. He has strong Evangelical backing and conservative backing. Republicans would have nothing to explain away with every tweet or distortion or mysterious statement. Honor would be restored to the Grand Old Party. Republicans voters have been loyal to their party even when Trump was despoiling their ideals, alienating women and minorities, and ignoring independent voters. There are no Republicans who are going to vote Democratic once Trump is retired to running his billionaire hotel, labeling, resort and golfing empire. Even after impeachment, there will be eight months for Pence to start as President and run against a severely ideologically and personality split Democratic Party candidate.
Thirty five Senate seats are up for election this year, consisting of 23 Republicans and 12 Democrats. Republicans include Mitch McConnell of Kentucky who’s margin of victory was 15.5% and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina (15.7%). Close Republican races could be Dan Sullivan of Alaska (2.2%), Cory Gardner of Colorado (1.9%), and Thom Tillis of North Carolina (1.5%). Close Democratic races could be Doug Jones of Alabama (1.7%), Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire (3.3%), and Mark Warner of Virginia (0.8%). In Arizona, replacing Sen. John McCain, is the very accomplished Republican Martha McSally, where Trump won by 4%. In order for the Democrats to even tie the Senate in 2020, the following miracle must occur, all three close Democrats must win, and all three close Republicans must lose.
Trump’s main reason to stay President and get re-elected is now just to maintain his freedom from prosecution, since all of these investigations could not be blocked once he becomes a normal citizen. That self interest would take precedence over any that his founders or backers want, and lead to more acts of desperation in winning his re-election.
I’m watching Star Wars: The Force Awakens. The escaped Storm Trooper Finn said that he was “just doing the right thing”. Impeaching Trump doesn’t sound like such a bad deal for Republicans.
