March 29. Trump Sees the Light on Coronavirus

March 29.  Trump Sees The Light on Coronavirus

Trump extends limits to April 30th.  Without stay-at-home, there could be 1.6-2.2 million deaths.  With the confinement steps, Dr. Fauci said 100,000 to 200,000 deaths.  Dr. Birx cited numbers of 80,000 to 160,000 deaths, but IHME numbers actually center around 80,000, but range from 40,000 to 160,000.  The peak will be in two weeks.  Actually, there is a spread in days of when the peak might be reached.  My IHME writeup is two articles back.  The CNN commentator misstated the 100,000 to 200,000 as deaths if no action was taken, such is the fog of war.

The larger number of mask usage, which Trump cited as suspicion of fraud,  is because usually, most patients are not contagious, as happens now with Coronavirus.  Any of the doctors on the task force could have told him that on the spot.  Trump also said that it wouldn’t be over until June 1.  Millions of American could get the Coronavirus.

Trump criticized PBS Alcindor, and CNN Jeremy Diamond.  He again shaded Washington Gov. Inslee, and Michigan’s Governor.  He still criticized New York for not distributing its stockpile of ventilators, even though NY will need more.  Trump still would not answer the question of whether everyone who needs a ventilator could get one.  The answer is no — by a long shot.  Trump wouldn’t answer the question of why Florida gets 100% of its medical requests.  Of course, Florida is the crucial swing state.  Trump again said that he expected governors to be appreciative of him and the others working on the government efforts, or he wouldn’t talk to them.

Trump just has guidelines.  But the non-confined states aren’t forced by a federal decree to confine people.  Also, the federal guidelines still allow meetings of 10 people or less.  It should be family only confinement. 

The news said that all of this was agreed upon this afternoon, which is probably why the news conference was delayed an hour.  Otherwise, they were going to announce it on Tuesday.  They used several projections beside IHME.  The 2.2 million possible deaths is what convinced Trump to extend their restrictions for a month.  It all seemed last minute and confused.  Trump still talked about altering things for some counties.

At least, the news conference was held outside in the Rose Garden.  The reporters were spread out, as were the speakers.  Trump was a respectable distance from the reporters.

In contrast, New York Governor Cuomo’s morning conference were well planned and explanatory slides, with the latest data.  He explained that different areas of New York were going to peak at different times.  He also said that the previously independent hospitals, both public and private, would all have to work together during this crises.

One news comment was that Trump was rejecting the Inspector General set up to review the handouts of the $500 billion aid to businesses.  Trump explained that they were going to get warrants or shares of companies.  Let’s see.  State run companies.  I think Trump has a word for that:  Communism.

The was a lot of talk about the new Abbott lab test, which was 45 minutes, then 15 minutes, then 5 minutes.  But they are initially only producing 50,000 of them.  The total number of tests performed is still under a million.

Here is today’s table of Domains, Cases, and Percent Increase over yesterday.  Several of the reports are low, probably because labs don’t work on Sunday, or agencies don’t get full reports.  Such must be the case with Mexico, with no new cases.

Domain Cases Percent Increase
US 142,502 14.5%
NY 59,746 9.0%
NJ 13,386 20.3%
CA 6,284 11.5%
MI 5,488 17.8%
MA 4,955 16.4%
FL 4,950 22.6%
IL 4,596 31.4%
WA 4,493 4.2%
LA 3,540 6.8%
PA 3,465 19..1%
TX 2,820 11.8%
GA 2,683 9.7%
CO 2,308 12.0%
CT 1,993 30.8%
TN 1,723 14.0%
OH 1,653 17.6%
IN 1,513 22.9%
MD 1,239
NC 1,202 13.2%
WI 1,164 10.3%
Canada 6,320 11.8%
Mexico 848 0
Brazil 4,256 9.0%
Los Angeles County 2,136 18.4%
Orange County 431 6.9%

Illinois and Connecticut at about 31% are very disturbing.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For a decade I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in lecturing and attending classes at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute (OLLI) at UC Irvine.
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