We present projections for California Coronavirus deaths and hospital needs from the April 5 IHME update.
The peak of beds needed is on April 14 in 8 days. The beds needed is most likely 5,000 with 95% probability limits of (2,400 to 10,500), and there are is no shortage.
The peak of ICU beds needed is 800 (450 to 1,600), but there are 2,000 available, so there will not be a shortage on these, either.
The most likely deaths per day peak in 11 days on April 17, at 70 (10 to 300). They are much smaller than those of New York, and small compared to the peak at 3,000 per day for the nation. With 1/8 of the nation’s population, we would have 375. We have started stay-at-home early, and have to keep it up.
Our most probable total number of deaths is 1,800 (1,400 to 2,400). This is only 2.2% of the nation’s projected deaths at 82,000. With more than enough medical resources, we may do even better. By May 1, there are projected to be 1,650 deaths.
The projections for ventilators also appeared on the first graph. It occurs on April 15, and is 700 (400 to 1,400). California has sent 500 excess ventilators to New York today. The New York ventilator need peaks in two days on April 8.
One serious problems using the models, is that Gov. Newsom sent the ventilators to New York saying that we were not expected to peak until May. The April 1 projection of IHME was close at April 28. However, the new IHME prediction is now two weeks earlier than that, on April 14, which is only a week from now. Fortunately, the National reserve gave Los Angeles 400 old ventilators, which didn’t work, but were refurbished in Silicon Valley.
All of this is sounds relatively good, but the projections are based on full US compliance with stay-at-home. It is also modeled on countries with complete health care coverage. We have Medical in California. But, we have a lot of homeless, a lot of undocumented who won’t have coverage, and a lot of seasonal farm workers. That’s four sources which can upset the modeling. I know we are working on some of these problems.
