A USC Health Center and the Los Angeles Health Department have tested about a thousand Angelenos for antibodies to the Coronavirus. The found that around 4.1% of those tested had antibodies, with a 95% probability range from 2.8% to 5.6%. That means that the number of infections in early April when they were tested was actually about 41 times higher than those that tested positive, with a range from 28 to 55 times higher than the 8,000 cases on April 10 and 11th, which they had then. So the total number of infected Angelenos then would have been 221,000 to 442,000. This was carried out by the USC Price School for Public Policy, the USC Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics, and the LA County Department of Public Health. The accuracy of the tests was verified at Stanford by action on actual Coronavirus.
This large factor is smaller but as shocking as the Stanford antibody test of Santa Clara County of 50 to 85 times as many infected as those tested positive. The early testing criteria then were very strict to those showing symptoms, and whose care decisions did not depend on the result of the test. There were also weeklong waits to get test results in some cases.
We also have to repeat the warnings that it is not known if the presence of antibodies means that you cannot be reinfected. Even if that occurs, it is not known how long it would last.
The Rush to Reopen, apparently aided by demonstrations organized by gun support groups of Trump supporters, with Trump reelection hats and signs, and applauded by Trump, could be a political factor. Since CNN showed a related graph from Johns Hopkins arcgis.com to millions of viewers, I guess I can show the better one to my handful of readers.
This shows the number of new cases per day from Georgia, where today, there was 1.1 thousand cases, marked so that you can see that the highest days are about 1,500 cases. The total of Georgia cases is not small, it is 19,399, with 775 deaths. Georgia is starting to relax restrictions on Friday. You can clearly see three weeks of a fluctuating but constant mean of new cases per day. There is no two week decline as required by the Gateway to Phase one, which by itself is the weakest criteria.
What’s even worse, is that the Governor is opening close contact businesses which last for an hour, none of which is essential. Please, Georgians, tune out Fox News and watch or read the real news, and continue the stay at home. I think the worst are the gyms. People generate aerosols when they are infected, There are also superspreaders who generate more. They can last in the air for an hour. Six feet of separation means nothing to the aerosols. And the whole purpose of gyms is to get people huffing and puffing for an hour. Even a choir spread the Coronavirus to most members just by singing. Similarly, hair cutting is also a long and close interaction. The cloth or surgical masks actually allow breathing through the unsealed edges. The mask only stops large droplets headed for your face. And they do not protect your eyes.
Tennessee has a similar multi-week fluctuating graph of new cases per day. They have fewer total cases of 7,238, with 152 deaths. They are also on a reopening without satisfying any Gateway criteria.
