April 21. Update of IHME Projections for the US, NY, and California
The IHME had another update of its projections today. The projected US total until August went up a little to 66,000, with a range from 45,000 to 124,000 including 95% of the probability range. Today, we reached 43,794. Today, the director of the CDC raised the specter of having the flu back in the fall in addition to the Coronavirus. Peak deaths per day were supposed to be around the 2,249 on April 19.
The Georgians who go to the gym, barber shop, or other contact businesses should all be recorded by time and contacts, as well leaving phone numbers. These should all be given daily to the local health agencies. There should be a large tracing contingent calling them up daily, and informing and contacting all who contacted someone who starts showing symptoms and can be tested. That way we don’t have to wait a week for hospitalization, or two or three weeks for deaths to show up.
The 1918 Influenza had three peaks in England, as seen below in the deaths per thousand people. The first smaller peak was in mid-July 1918, the large central peak in mid-November, and the third peak at the start of March, 1919. In the US, some cities had single peaks, and a few had double peaks.
A test at the VA of hydroxychloroquine showed 22% died, and those with added azithromycin showed 27% died, compared to 11.4% without the treatments. This was not a randomized and placebo double blind study, however. But the hydrochloroquine is not a magical cure. It is antibacterial to fight malaria, and one takes it for two weeks before you go to a dangerous country, you take it every day there, and you take it for three month after you get back. The azithromycin is also anti-bacterial.
New York’s IHME fit had it peaking 12 days ago at 1,036 deaths per day, and on April 19 it was at 895. On May 1, it would be 208 per day, and a week later on May 8, it would be down to 50 per day. Total New York deaths are now projected at 24,000 (range 19,000 to 35,500) in August. On April 19 it was 17,533.
California was supposed to peak 3 days ago, at 103 deaths per day. There are 65 deaths today in the fit, and a sharp falloff is projected, being 18 deaths on May 1, 10 days from now, and only 3 per day on May 8, a week later. Total deaths accumulated by yesterday were 1,225, and the total projected is 1,743.
If you can read this poster, from 1918, via Wikipedia, it sounds very familiar.
