“It’s summertime, summertime, sum, sum, summertime” the Jamies.
”Summertime, and the living is easy”, Porgy and Bess, by George Gershwin.
No less than the Department of Homeland Security has shown that the Coronavirus is destroyed by sunlight, with a two minute half life on a lit surface. The aerosol is also destroyed with a 1.5 minute half-life. Here is my reliable source:
These aren’t identical radioactive particles decaying with equal probabilities, with an exponential decay curve. The drops or aerosols have a finite size and dry up or are destroyed from the outside in. Since only a few virus cells can spread it, you really have to know how long the aerosols or droplets last totally, which depends on their size.
The U. Washington IHME team (Institute of Health Metrics’s and Evaluation) has a slightly changed map but the same data date as yesterday. This is their prediction of when the number of new daily cases is projected to fall to one per million of population. Here is the map.
We now examine states partly opening this weekend or on Monday. Texas and South Carolina, are projected to be free on June 8. New York is projected for May 27. Tennessee (May 20), Mississippi (May 29), Ohio (May 14), and Colorado (May 26) are also opening some businesses next week. Georgia doesn’t have a prediction on the IHME website, but is June 8 or later on the map. California is not opening now, but is projected to be free on May 10.
New York Gov. Cuomo preliminarily released the antibody testing for New York areas, showing that in New York City, the fraction with antibodies was 21.2%. Long Island had 16.7%, and Westchester/Rockland had 11.7%. The rest of the state had 3.6%. Knowing the number of deaths, they figured that the mortality rate was 0.5%, which is a factor of 10 less than the obvious fraction of deaths to confirmed cases of 5.6%. So 0.5% is both good, but also bad as it is 3 to 5 times the death rates for seasonal flus.
About equal numbers of men and women were tested statewide around grocery stores, but viral men were 16%, and women 12%. The overall statewide rate is 14%. Seniors 65-74 were 11.9%, and elders over 75 were 13%. Other decadal percentages starting at 25-34 were even higher, giving 15.9%, 13.6%, 16.7%, and 14.9%. Younger people are out working and getting around, so they are more vulnerable.
Modelers at Northeastern University have figured that on March 1, there were actually on the order of 10,000 infected in both New York and San Francisco, 3,000 in Chicago, and 2,000 in Boston and Seattle.
