IHME Coronavirus Projections to Feb. 1 for California, Texas, Florida, and New York
The populations of these four states sum to 110 million, about a third of the US populations. These states also cover the two largest swing states, of Texas and Florida. In Florida, Gov. DeSantis overrode local controls. Also, California and New York are models of reasoned and scientific controlled states.
California
The IHME projected deaths to February 1 are 43,699, but with 95% masking will be reduced to 33,434, saving 10,215 lives. With 16,614 deaths today, that will be 27,085 more deaths. So 95% masking will save 38% of the projected deaths. Current mask usage is 77%.
On February 1, deaths per day are projected to be 411, but can be reduced to 321 with 95% masking, saving 90 per day, or 22% then. There are only 76 deaths per day now, so this is a much larger projection by over a factor of 5.
Today, there are and estimated 10,430 infections per day, with about 3,500 a day confirmed. That is a factor of 3.0 larger.
I will make an amateur estimate of the infectious, assuming that people are infectious for 14 days. That would mean that in California there are 10,430 x 14 = 146,000 infectious people, out of 40,000,000. That is 0.37% infectious, or about 1 out of 300. Wear a mask and social distance. Avoid large gatherings. Don’t talk, or let other people talk to you. Don’t debate anybody.
Texas
The IHME projections of deaths by February 1 are 27,229, which can be reduced to 21,485 by 95% masking, saving 5,744 lives. With 16,394 current deaths in the IHME model, there are 10,835 to go. So the 5,744 lives saved are 53% of the new projected deaths. Current Texas masking is at 70%.
Projected February 1 deaths per day are 167, but can be reduced to 51 by 95% masking. The 116 prevented deaths per day are 69%. Today there are 66 deaths per day, so the projections are an increase by 2.5.
Current estimated infections per day are 10,802, which are a factor of 2.7 times the approximate 4,000 confirmed cases per day.
My crude estimate of infectious Texans are 14 x 10,802 / 29,000,000 = 0.5% or 1 out of 200. My motto: Don’t mess with Texas.
Florida
Projected deaths by February 1 are 28,654, which can be reduced to 24,332 with 95% masking, saving 4,322 lives. With 15,176 current deaths, that is 13,478 to go with the current projection. So the 4,322 savable lives are 32% or a third of the projected lives lost. Currently, Florida is 68% masked.
The current estimated infections per day are 12,407, and divided by the approximate 2,500 confirmed per day, gives a ratio of 5.0.
My crude estimate of the infectious are 14 x 12,407 / 21,500,000 = 0.81% or 1 out of 125 people. Stay away from Mar-a-Lago. Avoid unmasked or poorly masked people, like the plague. Don’t argue with them.
New York
The projected New York Coronavirus deaths by February 1 are 39,833, which can be reduced to 36,529 with 95% masking, saving 3,304 lives. Current deaths are at 33,249, so there will be 5,584 deaths to February 1. The 3,304 lives savable by masking are 59% of the new projected deaths. New York is currently at 78% masking.
Projected deaths per day for February 1 are 147, which can be reduced to 74 with masking, saving 73 per day, or half. Current deaths per day are only 9.5.
There are currently an estimated 1,591 infections per day, with about 800 per day confirmed. Their ratio is a factor of 2.0.
My crude estimate of the current infectious are 14 x 1,600 / 19,500,00 = 0.11%, or only 1 out of 900. Don’t move to Florida this year.
