Reaching the Eighteenth Binary Generation of US Coronavirus Deaths, and Deaths by Race
We used to keep track of how many days it took for Coronavirus cases or deaths to double. This was a key when the virus was growing exponentially, since then it would take a fixed time period for each doubling. We are now doing this again in cases, but fortunately deaths are slowing due to younger people being infected, and better treatments.
We are one day away, from there being 2 to the power 18 confirmed Coronavirus deaths in the US, when there will be 2^18 = 262,144 deaths. The sad outlook on this is that starting with the first imported cases, we now have gone eighteen full generations of growth of the virus in the number of deaths.
The number of detected Coronavirus cases in the US is now 12.6 million. This is between 23 generations of growth at 2^23 = 8,388,609, and 24 generations at 2^24 = 16,777,216. If we include that fact that US total excess deaths over past years are about 50% more than confirmed Corfon
However, the IHME model says that currently only 23% of infections have been detected and it was less before. That means that total infections is at least 4.3 times the detected cases, bringing total infections to over 54 million total infections. That range is between 2^25 = 33,554,432 and
2^26 = 67,108,864, or 25 and 26 generations of infection.
According to the IHME, the number of deaths is 6.9 times as great for Hispanics in 40 states, and 5.5 times as great for blacks in 38 states with more than 10 such deaths. Coronavirus cases have increased the risk of death for people of color at age 50 to the same risk as for non Hispanic whites at age 65 years. The IHME conclude that people of color should be first in getting vaccines at age 50. One out of 875 Black Americans have died from Covid-19.
An Axios/IPSOS poll of those likely to take vaccines is for the total, 70%. Hispanics are most likely at 72%. Blacks next most likely at 55%. And Whites were surprisingly least likely at a low 41%.
