World Population and Climate Change
A positive article appeared on the world population peaking, and easing back down. Of course, it depends on women achieving jobs, education, and the right to chose about children. It is also a result of urbanization, smaller housing, and higher costs. China has showed how developing countries can build at a rate higher than 10%. In particular, the two largest countries, China and India, have reached population stability in India, and a decline in China, even after their one child policy has been removed.
We concentrate on China, India, the US, the EU, and European countries. Just to emphasize the largest countries, we use figures of a billion people, and data from worldometers.info for 2019. The World Population of 2019 is 7.686 billion.
China 1.420 billion or 18.5% of the World, or about a fifth of the world.
India 1.369 billion or 17.8% of the World
EU. 0.513 of 28 members or 6.7%, or, without the UK, 0.447 or 5.8%
US. 0.329 or 4.3%
Indonesia 0.270 or 3.5%.
Adding China and India, gives 2.789 billion or 36.3%, more than a third of the world population. China has 4.3 times the US population, and India has 4.2 times.
The data for greenhouse gas emissions by country goes back to 2014 and the IPCC report. Emissions in 2014 were 10 billion metric tons. China has 30%, the US has 15%, the EU 9%, India 7%, the Russian Federation 5%, Japan 4%, and Others 30%. That means for emissions per capita, China has 0.30 x 10 billion metric tons / 1.42 billion people = 2.1 metric tons / person. For the US we have 0.15 x 10 billion metric tons / 0.329 billion = 4.6 metric tons / person. India has 0.07 x 10 billion metric tons / 1.37 billion = 0.51 metric tons / person. So India only has 1/9 the emissions per person as the US does. China has about 1/2 the emissions per person as the US.
One key point of the population data is that in order to match the sum of China and India at 2.789 billion people, you have to include the next 20 countries, number 3-22, giving 2.806 billion people, ending with France at number 22.
As the world becomes more developed, and presumably more egalitarian, especially with more free trade, the sources of greenhouse gas emissions are going to be spread around the world.
Conveniently, yesterday there was a TV interview on Fareed Zaharia with author David Wallace-Wells who pointed out that the sources of greenhouse gases are:
25% Electricity;
24% Agriculture;
21% Manufacturing;
14% Transportation;
10% Other sources; and
6% Buildings.
As you go down this list, electricity is going to be needed for warmer climates, replacing fossil fuel heat, and for charging cars. Agriculture goes without saying, since most countries are not into beef. Manufacturing is expected with free trade. Transportation can be lowered with electric cars, but is needed in an urban environment. As urbanization continues, there will be many more buildings, but with greater efficiency.
As we discuss international climate change, we have to note that Trump’s new nominee for the US Ambassador to the UN, Kelly Craft, is married to coal magnate Joe Craft of Kentucky and Oklahoma. Kelly Craft, our present Ambassador to Canada, has said that there are “good scientists” on both sides of the climate issue. (If you start with a false hypothesis, then all sorts of nonsense follows.)
The President’s Climate Security Committee, besides not reporting to the Congress, will also not have any public meetings, as required for a review committee.
While the US, at 4.3% of the world population, is currently the largest economy, it is largely a service economy. It is only a blip on the century scale and our economy that we are currently turning back to some more manufacturing, and pulling out of free trade collaborations.
Mr. Wallace-Wells pointed out that without climate action, there will be $600 trillion losses by the end of the century. He probably meant cumulative over the century.
The EU has 1/15 of the World Population. The largest populated country in the EU is Germany with 82 million, or 16% of the EU, or 1/4 of the US population. Next is the UK, with 67 million and 13%. Then is France with 65 million, or 13% of the EU. After that is Italy with 59 million or 12%. Then Spain with 46 million or 9%.
Imagine, without the EU, how many miles of walls Europe would need to separate all 28 of its countries, and how many passport control points, and how much time would be wasted crossing between countries. You would also need 28 x 27 / 2 = 378 separate bilateral trade agreements.
In North America, Mexico is number 10 worldwide, with 132 million people. Canada has 37 million. Adding these to the US at 329 million gives the population of North America as 498 million, or close to that of the EU at 513 million. Mexico’s population is 40% of the that of the US.
Of current interest, South Korea has 51 million people. North Korea has about half of that at 26 million.
President Trump wants to overturn Western Hemisphere dictators, which he calls Socialists, in order to disparage Democrats. Venezuela has 33 million people, Cuba has 11.5 million, and Nicaragua has 6.4 million. One statistic where Venezuela is number one in the World is in the value of its oil reserves, which are state held. This week, President Trump will be in Communist Vietnam at number 15 with 97 million people, meeting with Supreme Leader Kim Jong-Un of Communist North Korea.
