May 11. Coronavirus Projected Deaths and Social Distancing in the IHME Model
The U. Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) has updated their data on cases and deaths, as well as social distancing policies, on May 10. We present a table of leading US states in present deaths, IHME summer end projections, and percent of social distancing decrease in the long term. The social distancing projections level out by mid May, as in New York on May 15. At the tables‘ end we also include some other states with low deaths, but early openings. The death data are the night numbers from Johns Hopkins on May 10.
The IHME projection of total US deaths has essentially remained the same, now at 137,000 with a 95% probability range from 103,000 to 224,000. By June 1 the projection is 111,000. There are now about 80,000 deaths in the US. Total deaths projection for New York State are 31,620, with a range of 30,000 to 34,000. Total death projection for California are 6,100, with a range of 4,200 to 9,800.
The table has the state name, present deaths, projected deaths, and the projected long term percent of contact reduction by social distancing in the state’s policies.
| State | Deaths | Proj. Deaths | Distancing |
| New York | 26,641 | 31,600 | -60% |
| New Jersey | 9,256 | 14,800 | -55% |
| Massachusetts | 4,979 | 7,500 | -59% |
| Michigan | 4,555 | 6,200 | -48% |
| Pennsylvania | 3,806 | 10,700 | -28% |
| Illinois | 3,406 | 7,400 | -44% |
| Connecticut | 2,967 | 4,600 | -45% |
| California | 2,718 | 6,100 | -47% |
| Louisiana | 2,286 | 3,200 | -32% |
| Florida | 1,721 | 5,400 | -36% |
| Maryland | 1,644 | 2,600 | -56% |
| Indiana | 1,508 | 4,100 | -31% |
| Georgia | 1,406 | 3,600 | -28% |
| Ohio | 1,341 | 3,000 | -33% |
| Texas | 1,094 | 2,600 | -36% |
| Colorado | 971 | 1,700 | -44% |
| Washington | 931 | 1,100 | -48% |
| Virginia | 839 | 1,400 | -43% |
| Minnesota | 578 | 2,100 | -35% |
| Arizona | 536 | 3,000 | -43% |
| Missouri | 503 | 2,000 | -23% |
| Mississippi | 430 | 1,236 | -18% |
| Wisconsin | 400 | 673 | -32% |
| South Carolina | 331 | 744 | -22% |
| D. Of Columbia | 323 | 536 | -67% |
| Nevada | 310 | 511 | -49% |
| Kentucky | 304 | 703 | -34% |
We note that the states with the largest death tolls range in social distancing reduction from -44% to -60%, with the exception of Pennsylvania at a low value of -28%, Louisiana at -32%, and Indiana at -31%. The largest reduction of -60% is the most needed one, New York.
We note that most states are split between rural areas with fewer death rates, and urban areas with higher death rates, which are not reflected in just statewide data.
In general, I think of states above a 40% reduction as effective, and those below that as ineffective.
Pennsylvania, Mississippi, South Carolina, Missouri, and Georgia are the least effective at less than 30% reduction. Their projected total deaths are two to four times those at present.
Next are Indiana, Wisconsin, Louisiana, Ohio, and Kentucky in the low 30%, also with projected total deaths about a factor of 1.5 to two over the present number. Even those with 36% reduction have relatively high projected death increases.
We have not been thorough in searching out all states with low distancing values.
Fortunately, CNN has a map of states which have increased mobility by more than 20% from previous IHME estimates, in brown, and of 15-20% in yellow. Fortunately, none of those states is in the top 10 of present deaths, shown in our table above, although Georgia is number 11.
