As Global Deaths Approach a Million, 2.7 Million Deaths are Projected for January 1.
Global deaths today are 958,000, or 96% of a million. The IHME Sept. 18 projections for January 1 are 2.667 million deaths. With 95% mask wearing, that can be reduced by 0.730 million to 1.937 million.
Compared to present deaths of 0.958 million, there will be 1.709 million more deaths by January 1. With 95% masking, that will be reduced to 0.979 million more. That is 57.3% of those without more masking, or a saving of 43% of the lives to be lost.
Global deaths per day will reach 33,625 on January 1 with present 59% world masking, but that can be reduced to 19,699 a day with 95% masking, a reduction of 41%.
This week’s IHME projection for deaths on January 1 is 111,000 lower than last week’s. The deaths saved by 95% masking on January 1 has increased to 730,000 this week from 715,000 last week.
We present leading countries in the number of deaths projected by IHME for January 1, the number of deaths expected with masking, the number of lives saved by masking, and the percentage of current masking.
| Country | Present Deaths | Projected Deaths | Deaths with Masking | Lives Saved | Current Masking |
| India | 86,752 | 625,165 | 430,587 | 194,578 | 68% |
| US | 199,481 | 378,321 | 263,484 | 114,837 | 46% |
| Brazil | 136,532 | 170,072 | 159,828 | 10,244 | 69% |
| Mexico | 73,258 | 139,894 | 134,302 | 5,592 | 81% |
| Russia | 19,349 | 98,182 | 30,940 | 67,242 | 33% |
| UK | 41,866 | 93,429 | 65,566 | 27,863 | 43% |
| France | 31,257 | 88,528 | 74,290 | 14,238 | 58% |
| Italy | 35,707 | 67,687 | 53,171 | 14,516 | 61% |
| Spain | 30,495 | 65,921 | 64,912 | 1,009 | 92% |
| Iran | 24,301 | 62,476 | 36,777 | 25,699 | 53% |
| Turkey | 7,506 | 54,434 | 49,362 | 5,072 | 73% |
| Philippines | 4,984 | 52,979 | 50,905 | 2,074 | 89% |
| Colombia | 24,039 | 50,579 | 46,667 | 3,912 | 88% |
| Peru | 31.369 | 44,594 | 44,415 | 179 | 91% |
| Japan | 1,508 | 39,447 | 24,730 | 14,717 | 85% |
| Iraq | 8,555 | 29,748 | 14,982 | 14,766 | 42% |
| S. Korea | 373 | 29,469 | 24,079 | 5,390 | 90% |
Clearly, it is hard to imagine Japan or S. Korea rapidly accelerating deaths in December with their high masking percentages. The model might need some revisions here.
In many projections, you can see that present high masking percentages lead to smaller gains with increasing masking to 95%. It is also clear that even progressing to 80% mask wearing reduces most of the new fatalities.
