New York Times – Cook Political Report of the House Outlook
The Cook Political Report starts by looking for 23 seats to flip for the Democrats to take the lead.
Republican seats in play: 4 likely to flip, 13 leaning toward flipping, and 28 tossups. Assuming the 4 and 13 flip, totaling 17, it is still necessary for 6 more seats of the 28 toss-ups to flip.
Democratic seats in play: 1 is likely to flip, 1 is leaning to flip, and 1 is a tossup. If the two that may flip do flip, then 8 of the 28 Republican tossups must flip, with the uncertainty of the one Democratic tossup.
In another section, they do a conventional breakdown:
183 Solid D
11 Likely D
15 Lean D. These total 209.
29 Tossups. 9 of these are needed to become D for a 218 majority.
29 Lean R. These total 197. 21 more are needed for a R majority.
28 Likely R
140 Solid R
This is very close to the Politico analysis, where 10 of 28 tossups are needed for a Democratic majority.
The Nate Silver 538 breakdown has 20 tossups, with only 1 needed for a Democratic majority.
