Trump’s Last Days Election Assaults

Posted on October 31, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

Trump’s Last Days Election Assaults

Update:  After I had written and posted this, I came across this article in The Hill and the Stanford Economics Department paper, that 18 Trump rallies led to 30,000 COVID-19 cases, and 700 deaths.  The rallies were between June 20 and September 22.

Trump is hitting key swing states with a maximum assault in these last few days and weeks before the election.  Normally, citizens in Centerville or West End are impressed that a Presidential candidate came to and therefore cares about their small town, and therefore, them, in person.  Actually, of course, what Trump cares about is that there are votes you have in a battleground state that he desperately needs, because the polls are correct:  he is in danger of losing your state.

But in the days of the Plague, Trump is really making a Pandemic Assault on your city.  This shows that Trump not only does not care about you or your city, but is willing to sacrifice the health of you, your family, your friends, and your city in pursuance of four more years of his Kingly Rule over America.

Trump’s Infectathon events MAXIMIZE the spread of the Pandemic!!!  First, he is not just gathering you and your neighbors.  He is gathering all of the people from your State who follow his Cult, and ignore ALL of the protocols to prevent the spread of the virus.  Because of that, they are the most likely to be INFECTED, the most likely to believe that it is a HOAX or no worse than the FLU, and to show up at events even when sick, or even asymptomatic but after a contact with five assistants known to have tested positive, like Vice President Pence does!  (With the all caps, you can see that I have learned well from the Master Tweeter.)

But it is even worse than that!  At these events, the Cult pushes together as densely packed as possible.  Then they sit or stand for hours until the Master arrives, to repeat the same trolls that he has for years.  The Cult show their loyalty by not wearing their masks, and by not social distancing.  The number of the Cult present at the rally exceeds the size of allowed groups in your city or State by a factor of 100 or more, and they do this with impudence!  We just learned that for many events, the Cult is transported to the hanger by crowded, closed buses, and bussed out after the virus has spread.  During Trump’s Insultathon, the Cult will cheer and chant unconstitutional dogma, like Lock (Him or Her) Up.  USA, USA, where else are we?  The audience will also be treated to stirring and popular music, either illegally being broadcast without paying the artists for it, or from musicians who are publicly opposed to the President and quite forward about it. 

But we are not even done about the Spread.  During Trump’s Rant, the one Man who could be most influential in stopping the Pandemic and its Suffering, will do everything he can to continue spreading it.  He will not only not urge his Cult to wear their masks, he will insult anybody wearing masks, like the Press, and his opponent, Joe Biden.  While Doctors, Nurses, and health care workers have undergone nine months of stress and high risk in caring for those affected by the Plague, Trump has now gone into the gutter and insulted them as if they were declaring more deaths and cases as due to the Coronavirus, just to get paid more.  That is being denied by the media, and Medical Societies have condemned Trump’s insults.  Trump, himself, has a history of subverting his doctors.  Trump has also replaced his most experienced health doctors and advisors, with those who want to infect everybody.

Finally, the Cult is going to go out in the community, and then back home, even more firmly convinced that Covid, Covid, Covid is a hoax, and abandoning all hope, no matter where they enter.

Post Rally:  Trump is now saying that Biden will deny you Thanksgiving and Christmas.  The message is to keep spreading the Pandemic during these traditional family events.

Even the data are in.  The Pandemic has surged in 14 of the 17 communities where Trump earlier had held rallies.  Many of the Cult that showed up, are not even from your community.

If Trump can sow doubt about everything that you have held dear, just realize, that it is simpler to just assume that Trump is the problem, not everything else.

Since this is a political article, we note the preponderance of multiples of threes, three days before the election.  In 2016, each party scored about 60 million votes, with Clinton exceeding Trump by 3 million.  So far, there have been about 90 million votes counted by today.  About 60 million have been by cast by mail, and 30 million in person.  In 2016, the vote counts were close to 63 million for Trump, and 66 million for Hillary.

Posted in 2020 Election, Coronavirus, COVID-19, Health Care | Tagged | Leave a comment

IHME Projections for February 1 for California, Texas, Florida and Swing States

Posted on October 30, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

IHME Projections for February 1 for California, Texas, Florida and Swing States

We discuss the IHME projections from October 29 for February 1 for swing states.

A short summary of results of daily deaths on February 1, which are projected at 2,228 per day for the US as a whole.  The top three population states, California, Texas and Florida add up to 655 projected deaths per day, or 29% of the total.  Texas and Florida are swing states.  The next six swing states below add up to 437 projected deaths per day or 20%.  The total of both gives 1,092, or a half or 49% of the projected deaths per day.

California

The numbers below for California are exactly the same as last week.  I wrote them an email about this.

The projections are 31,798 deaths with present 70% masking, which can be reduced to 25,377 with 95% masking, saving 6,421 lives.  Current deaths are 17,647, giving 14,151 to go.  So the 6,421 lives saved are 45% of those to go.

Projected daily deaths to February 1 are 343 per day, which can be reduced to 153 by 95% masking.  The 189 lives saved a day are 55% of the projected losses.

The current estimated daily cases are 7,946, with roughly 3,500 a day confirmed by testing.  This gives a ratio of 2.3 times as many cases as those confirmed.

Texas

The projected deaths to February 1 are 32,175, but with 95% masking are 26,117, showing 6,058 lives can be saved.  This is about the same lives savable as last week.  Current deaths are 17,864, so there are 14,311 to go.  The savable lives are 42% of those to go.  Current masking is 67%.

Deaths per day are projected to be 186, which can be reduced to 105, saving 81 per day.  This is 43% of the 186.

Current estimated infections per day is 16,951, while confirmed ones are about 5,000 a day.  This gives a ratio of 3.4.

Florida

The projected deaths to February 1 are 25,948, which can be lowered to 22,030 with 95% masking, saving 3,918 lives.  With 16,869 current deaths, there will be 9,079 more to go.  The 3,918 lives savable are 43% of that.  The lives savable are a jump of about a thousand over last week’s projection.

Deaths per day are projected to 126, which can be reduced to 55 with 95% masking, saving 71 a day.  The 55 is 44% of those projected.

Current estimated infections per day are 8,435, and confirmed are around 3,000.  The ratio is 2.8.

Pennsylvania

Projected deaths to February 1 are 18,385.  With 95% masking, this can be reduced to 14,564, saving 3,821 lives.  Current deaths are 8,771, showing that there are 9,614 more to go.  So masking saves 40% of those lives.   There are 110% more lives to lose by February 1.  Current masking is 59%.

Deaths per day on February 1 are 126, with 93 by full masking, saving 33 lives per day, which is 26%.

Current estimated infections per day are 4,457.  Confirmed cases are about 1,800 per day, giving a ratio of estimated to confirmed of 2.5.

Michigan

Projected deaths to February 1 are 14,180, which is lowered to 13,086 with 95% masking, saving 1,094 lives.  With 7,718 lives already lost, this is an increase of 84% with 6,462 new deaths.  The lives savable are 17% of the new deaths.  Current masking is at 72%.

Projected deaths on February 1 are 47 per day, but 5 a day are savable, which is 11%.

Current estimated daily infections are 7,137, with around 2,750 a day confirmed, giving a ratio of 2.6.

Georgia 

Projected deaths to February 1 are 14,027, which can be reduced to 11,339 by 95% masking, saving 2,688 lives.  With current deaths at 8,007, there are 6,020 to go, or an additional 75%.  Lives savable are 45% of those to go.  Current masking is 56%.

Daily deaths on February 1 are projected as 65, and 33 by full masking, saving 32 a day, or 49%.

Current estimated daily infections are 8,330, while about 1,250 a day are confirmed, giving a ratio of 6.7.

North Carolina 

Projected deaths to February 1 are 12,219, which can be reduced to 9,790 with 95% masking, saving 2,429 lives.  Currently there are 4,382 Coronavirus deaths, so there are 7,837 to go, which will almost triple the number, or increase it by 179%.  The 2,429 savable lives are 31% of future deaths.  Current masking is 63%.

Daily deaths on February 1 will be 84, which can be reduced to 64 with 95% masking, saving 20 a day, or 24%.

Current estimated daily infections are 9,534, and daily confirmed are around 2,000, giving a ratio of 4.8.

Ohio

Projected deaths to February 1 are 12,095, but reducible to 9,520 with 95% masking, saving 2,575.  With current deaths at 5,306, the increase in deaths will be 128%.  The lives savable by masking are 38% of the increase.  Current masking is 62%.

Daily deaths on February 1 are projected to be 78, which can be reduced to 44 by full masking, saving 34 a day, or 44%.

Current daily estimated infections are 5,437, with about 2,400 observed, giving a ratio of 2.3.

Arizona

The projection for February 1 is 9,151 deaths, which can be lowered to 8,006 by 95% masking, saving 1,145 lives.  Current deaths are 5,983, so there are 3,168 to go, which is an addition of 53%.  Savable lives are 36% of those projected.   Current masking is 66%.

Daily deaths on February 1 are 37, which can be reduced to 20 with 95% masking, saving 17 a day or 46%.

Current estimated infections are 7,503, whereas about 1,000 are confirmed, giving a ratio of 7.5.

Wisconsin 

Projected deaths to February 1 are 6,481, which can be lowered to 5,117 by 95% masking, saving 1,364 lives.  Current deaths are 1,901, so 4,580 are to go.  This is a very large 241% to go.  The 1,364 are the 30% of lives which can be saved.  Current masking is 64%.

Daily deaths on February 1 are projected to be 42, which can be reduced to 24 with more masking, saving 18 a day, or 43%.

Current Estimated infections  are 6,596 per day, and confirmed ones are about 3,500 a day, giving a ratio of 1.9.

 

Posted in 2020 Election, Coronavirus, COVID-19, Health Care, IHME Projections | Leave a comment

IHME Projection for February 1 US Coronavirus Deaths go back to 400,000

Posted on October 30, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

IHME Projection of October 29th for February 1 US Coronavirus Deaths Goes Back up to 400,000.  This is about 15,000 more than last week’s estimate.

While we hoped that the Coronavirus would die out over the summer, it didn’t.  Now we are finding that it is indeed seasonal, and will be a major problem in the winter.

We have now reached 9 million confirmed cases in the US.  The IHME still claims that we are only detecting a quarter of the tests, so that there may be 36 million cases, which is about 11% of Americans.

Dr. Sanjay Gupta on CNN reminds us that 40% of cases are asymptomatic, and 50% of transmissions occur between symptoms appear.

Dr. Chris Murray, the Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the U. Of Washington (IHME), says that 18 states will have real stress on ICUs this winter.

Present US masking is only at 65%.  We show the IHME numbers for how many deaths to expect by February 1, and that over 61,000 lives can be saved by 95% masking.

By the end of the Presidential Term on January 20, the US death toll is expected to exceed 370,000, and 50,000 deaths are savable by 95% masking, which is 35% of those expected to occur by then.

Now for the numbers.  The IHME projections are that US deaths for February 1 with the current masking is 399,163.  With 95% masking now, that can be reduced to 337,670, saving 61,493 lives.  Deaths yesterday in IHME were 227,761, leaving 171,402 to go.  So the 61,493 savable lives are 36% of those to go.

Daily deaths on February 1 have declined from a mid-January peak, to 2,228 per day.  With 95% masking, they will be reduced to 1,326 per day, saving 902 lives per day, or 40%.

Estimated infections per day now are 168,364, while those confirmed are roughly 78,000 per day, giving a ratio of 2.2.

—————————————————————————————

We can use the IHME projections to evaluate a more meaningful date:  January 20th, the end of the Presidential Term.  Deaths then are projected to be 372,031.  But with 95% masking, the projection is reduced to 321,801, saving 50,230 lives.  With current deaths of 227,761, there are 144,270 to go by then.  So the 50,230 savable lives are 35% of those new ones projected.

Daily deaths for January 20th are projected at 2,290.  This can be reduced to 1,317, saving 973 lives a day, or 42%.

Posted in 2020 Election, Coronavirus, COVID-19, Health Care, IHME Projections | Tagged | Leave a comment

The Art of the Cult, by Donald Trump

Posted on October 29, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

The Art of the Cult, by Donald Trump

Trump rallies are far more than just public speeches.  Kurt Vonnegut said to “join a gang”, as the cure to modern cultural separateness in a city of total strangers.  Later, it was interpreted as “join a group”, as gangs have a bad reputation.

Some say that Trump read “Mein Kampf”, and I suspect he followed the old films of Mussolini and Hitler’s vast rallies, of everybody behaving in unison, wearing uniforms.  Trump senses the psychic bonding and complete lack of reasoning, individual responsibility and cure for loneliness that a chanting group provides.  Hence, everybody wears identical Trumpware, MAGA hats, and nobody dares express any individualism by dawning a mask or social distancing.  Trump even appeared to make a slip once, when he meant to say herd immunity, but said “herd mentality”.  I’m sure, that was because his team was planning these rallies with “herd mentality” on their minds.

We are all group indoctrinated going through school.  Pledge allegiance to a flag and a nation.  Root for your high school teams, as if they are any different from any other team.  Be proud of your high school, as if they are anything special.  Root for your college teams.  Root for your city teams.  (Go Fairfax High Lions, UCLA Bruins, LA Rams, UC Irvine Anteaters, oh wait, we don’t have a football team, LA Dodgers, Yippee, 32 years to win a World Series?)

A large part of this is human nature, since collective action has been a key to our evolution, development and mastery as a species.  Biden’s campaign lacks this cohesion as no groups are formed, no rallies bind us in the time of the plague, no uniforms are required, and there is no group bonding.  He therefore lacks pizazz.  Some of us just prefer a wisened, experienced administrator, beholden to the law.

The cult formed by Trump (Trumpites, Trumpians, Trumpeteers?) will listen uncritically to hourlong rants of insults and lies, and repeat insulting dogmatic chants, the language of the mob.  People watching excerpts on TV see the unbridled enthusiasm, and think that there must be something there that is meaningful and attractive about Trump.  There really isn’t.  He is just a demagogue for our time.  And so it goes.  (A Vonnegut Ending.) 

Instead of drinking the Kool-Aid, Trump rallies have now been shown to seed Coronavirus superspreading events.  So people are inhaling the virus.  Oddly, this feeds into Trump’s new love for creating herd immunity as rapidly as possible, and ignoring the necessary deaths and suffering that will occur in the process.  With vaccines, herd immunity may eventually come true.

Well, this is another attempt to get out my observations before the fateful Election Day, which signals the official beginning of the massive legal challenge to our Democracy.  However, extreme voter suppression has continued as it always has.  One Dropbox for the 5 million citizens of Houston Texas.  Is anybody going to even empty it, or once it is filled is that just it?  The city of Laguna Beach, of 25,000 people, has its own Dropbox in the center of town.  That is 1/200 of the population of Houston!  Irvine, a city of 280,000 has 10.  Orange County, with a population of 3 million, has over 100.  My postman told me that they are even going to have a late mailbox collection so that we can get our ballots postmarked on Election Day, and they can be counted later.  California is truly Democratic.

Posted in 2020 Election, Coronavirus, COVID-19 | Tagged | Leave a comment

Trump’s Continuous Coronavirus Pandemic Has Been Terrible for Oil Companies

Posted on October 29, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

Trump’s Continuous Coronavirus Pandemic has been Terrible for Oil Companies

While Trump was blasting Biden for saying that the US would be using less oil, that will be a very long range adoption of Electric cars, which are only selling at about 5% of new cars.  Also, electricity has to be increased by around 40% to charge an all electric fleet.  Using natural gas to charge cars at night saves about 30% in emissions over oil, but doing better means we have to build more clean electricity.  For renewable sources, this means charging during the daytime, so businesses and workplaces have to be equipped with charging, as well as most gas stations.  Other countries are still developing nuclear power to provide reliable clean electricity throughout the year and around the clock.

An intermediate solution is to continue the Obama Clean Energy drive to a 55 mpg fleet average.  This can be done with better gasoline engineering, and with lighter cars which will be safer and more fuel saving with electronic driving technology.  Hybrid cars and plug-in hybrids also use gas more efficiently, and use electric motors which are more efficient.

There are a lot of methane emissions in pumping and refining oil, which can be eliminated with rather inexpensive strict regulations, which Trump has thrown out.  The pollution caused by fracking can also be prevented by choosing better technologies, after Trump is gone.

US oil stock prices have dropped to less than half this year with Trump’s inability to minimize the pandemic and get businesses and schools back, as many countries have done.  Even now, many times daily, Trump is holding packed, unmasked, cheering rallies for hours in states which are having winter surges of new Coronavirus cases.  The fact that he ONCE said that masking is patriotic does not make up for this.

Here are the highs of the last 52 weeks of oil companies, which were largely stable before the pandemic, today’s prices, and the percent of their highs that are today’s price.

BNO, US Brent Oil Fund, LP:  high 21.98, today 9.64    — 44%.

WTI, W&T Offshore Inc:           High  6.10, today 1.480  — 24%.

RDA-A, Royal Dutch Shell:      High 61.17, today 24.42 — 40%.

CVK, Chevron:                         High 122.94, today 68.41 — 56%.

COP, ConocoPhillips:               High 67.13, today 28.82 — 43%.

XOM, Exxon Mobil:                  High 73.72, today 32.85 — 45%.

BP p.l.c., British Petroleum:    High 40.08, today 15.14 — 38%.

After Trump, we can keep a partial and highly efficient oil economy.

Oil is complicated and international, and I only know a small amount about it which I read in newspapers.  But here is how I understand it. 

Trump brags that he has made the US energy independent.  For oil, this is just on paper.  Roughly, the US uses 20 million barrels a day, and produces about the same.  But the US exports roughly 10 million barrels a day, and imports about the same amount.  It depends where you are, and that imported oil is shipped into the west coast, and shipped out of refineries.  It also depends on costs.  Saudi oil sells for less than $10 a barrel, whereas US fracked oil costs around $50 a barrel.  A barrel holds 42 gallons of oil, although some goes to petroleum products and jet fuel.  

Earlier this year, Russia and Saudi Arabia were pumping more freely, dropping the price below $50 a barrel and cutting into US fracking production.  Trump made some sort of a deal for them to limit production to drive the price back up to save our fracking production.  This, of course, drove the price back up for US consumers.  The difference between $50 a barrel and $10 a barrel is $40 a barrel, or about a dollar a gallon!  We don’t know what kind of concessions Trump made to these dictatorships to get them to limit production.  We are still selling arms to Saudi Arabia, as well as other Middle East countries, and Trump never speaks out against Russia.

So, being “energy independent” has a cost to pay.  We are not currently at war with anybody to necessitate energy independence.  If we really did not import and export, but had to take longer sea routes to deliver or to build new pipelines across the US, the price would go up.

So even if the US and Europe starts converting more to electric cars, there will still be a market in the developing world for oil, and the US oil industry might not be hurt.  Many more cars can be driven with highly efficient hybrids.

As Biden claims, and California and Texas have found out, many new jobs can be created by switching to renewable energy sources.

There are as of Q4 2019, 3.36 million jobs in Clean Energy, compared to 1.19 million in Fossil Fuel employment, roughly a 3 to 1 ratio.

Here are the distribution among industries:

Energy efficiency:  2.38 million;

Renewable energy:  0.52 million (solar 0.35, wind 0.11);

Grid and storage:  0.15 million;

Clean vehicles: 0.27 million; and

Clean Fuels:  0.040 million.

The top six states were California (537,000), Texas (241,000), Florida (166,000), New York (159,000), Michigan (125,000), and Illinois (125,000).  President Obama pointed out that Biden’s plan would create one million jobs in building electric vehicles, and 10 million in clean energy.

So much for Trump telling Biden that he will tattle to the fossil fuel states about switching to clean energy.  Pennsylvania was number 11 in the list.

Posted in 2020 Election, Affairs of State, CAFE Standards, California Oil, California Smog, Clean Energy, Climate Change, Climate Education, Climate Science, Electric Cars, Electric Power, Energy Efficiency, EPA, Equivalent Electric Car Emissions, Fossil Fuel Energy, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Hybrid Cars, Natural Gas, Nuclear Energy, Oil, Politics, Regulations, Renewable Energy, Saudi Oil Imports, Solar Energy, Transportation, Trump Administration, US Oil, Wind Energy, World Oil Exports, World Oil Usage, World Smog | Tagged | Leave a comment

Battleground Orange County, CA, On Fire, with Worst Air Ever

Posted on October 28, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

Battleground Orange County, CA, On Fire, with Worst Air Ever

It is shocking to wake up with the smell of smoke, and then to go outside and discover that the sunrise is blurred by smoke and the air is full of smoke.  A quick call to the UC Irvine campus police tells me the fire is in eastward Silverado, and to turn on KTLA channel 5 to see the fire coverage.  The sunrise picture that I took from smoke over faculty and staff housing in University Hills.

Looking at the PurpleAir.com air quality monitors, show the fall Santa Ana winds blowing the smoke in a narrow wedge right over Irvine, my home and the campus and out over Newport Beach.  Note the incredible high 669 PM2.5 reading over UC Irvine.  Laguna Beach to the South still has excellent air, and so do cities to the North.  I have breakfast to think and get energy, then hastily pack for a few days and head to Los Angeles to stay with my son and his family.

Here is the Southern California wind map with the relevant stream just below the center of the picture.  This is from earth.nullschool.net.

This is the trace of the PurpleAir.com monitor at Aldrich Hall, the UC Irvine Administration building next to Campus Drive across from the University Center.  The extremely high value hit 550 but was short lived.  Still, bad air from 150 to 200 has recurred.  The “Worst Air Ever” was for Irvine.

 

Soon, 90,000 residents of Irvine, a city of 300,000, and Trabuco Canyon, are ordered to evacuate, since 65 mph winds are carrying embers into Irvine.  It is a brush chaparral fire, and spreads rapidly in the Santa Ana winds, growing from a few hundred acres to 8,000 acres in a day.  It is now over 13,000 acres.  500 firefighters are battling the blaze, and, unfortunately, two are badly burned.

After a day, the Santa Ana winds let up, the smoke spreads out around Orange County, and even into Los Angeles, and I return to my more comfortable home, but still to bad air.  A second fire, the Blue Ridge fire, has started up northward of Irvine.  Southern California, and even more so, Northern California, has been in a drought for years.  It hasn’t rained here all summer, and still hasn’t yet rained in the fall.  

Northern and Central California suffered all summer from forest fires, fueled by drought, a months-long heat wave, and an unbelievable 150 million dead pine trees killed by pine bark beetles, which were not frozen during the warming winters. 

The University Campus closed up for two days, and the schools in Irvine closed and sent students home.  The schools are being used as shelters for Irvine residents.  The Red Zone is mandatory evacuation, and the Yellow Zone is a Voluntary Evacuation Warning.  The Irvine Police Department has just removed all of the evacuation orders, at 3PM Wednesday.

 

Today, the Fifth hurricane of the year is hitting Louisiana.  They are already into Greek letter names this season, having exhausted the 26 English letter starting names.  Hurricane Zeta has rapidly increased to a category 2 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, even this late in the season.

Worldwide, this September was the warmest ever, due to climate change.  This year may be on track to be the warmest year ever.

I have been writing for years about the health costs of bad air quality around the US and the world, as an immediate human suffering of the long term global warming.  It is unimaginable that people in the industrial areas of China and India breath this horrendous air pollution a majority of days in the year.

With Trump, one can Never ignore his role in this.  Trump has just fired the Acting Chief Scientist of NOAA, Craig McLean, through NOAA’s newly appointed chief of staff, Erik Noble, from the White House.  McLean had been at NOAA for 32 years.  Trump has constructed a new Schedule F of federal political appointees, which he can transfer the government scientists and conscientious workers to, and then fire them.  Remember, Trump made a fortune on The Apprentice, where his key line was “You’re Fired”.  Trump can then put long-term political climate deniers in these key positions, even if he shortly leaves office.  Hopefully, this is unconstitutional, since he is doing it by Executive Order, obviously without Congressional Approval.  Trump has said that he has given us the Cleanest Air and Cleanest Water, which I can testify to that he hasn’t from the last few days.  Clean air and water is not any answer to mitigating climate change.

Trump just had added his third Conservative, Federalist Society Chosen Judge to the Supreme Court, Amy Coney Barrett.  She tows the Climate Denier line that Climate Change is a controversial matter, and a question of public opinion.

By coincidence, Republican are trying to regain Conservative Orange County, which went totally Democratic in representatives in the 2018 off-year rebellion against Trump.  If 90,000 being forced from their homes, schools closing, and two days of breathing the worst air ever don’t keep them Democratic, nothing will.

By coincidence, Trump was just in Newport Beach at a $150,000 a couple private fundraiser.  Oh, if it had only been scheduled a week later.  As these couples return home and start cleaning up the Eucalyptus bark shed by the high Santa Ana winds, they may think twice about their commitment.  The fundraiser was held on exclusive Lido Island in the Newport Bay and Harbor, soon to be inundated by rising sea levels. 

One cannot fault Mother Nature from doing her utmost to send us record Fires and Storms to emphasize the horrors awaiting us with more climate change.  

Posted in 2020 Election, Air Quality, American Carnage, American Lung Association, California Smog, Climate Change, Climate Education, Climate Science, Coastal Flooding, Earth, Fire Risks, Fossil Fuel Energy, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Health Care, Katie Porter, Politics, Sea Level Rise, Smog worldwide, Trump Administration, Trump on Climate Change, UC Irvine, World Smog | Tagged | Leave a comment

IHME Projections to February 1 for California, Texas, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia

Posted on October 24, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

October 22nd IHME Projections for California, Texas, Florida,  New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Ohio, and North Carolina

We cover the four largest states, which include two swing states, and then six other swing states.

California

IHME projections for total California Coronavirus deaths by February 1 are 31,798, a drop of about 4,000 from last week’s projection.  With 95% masking, that can be reduced to 25,377, saving 6,421 lives.

With present California Coronavirus deaths at 17,194, that leaves 14,604 to go.  Those that can be saved by more masking are 44.0% of that, almost half.  California presently has 75% masking.  Future deaths are 85% of present deaths.

California currently has Estimated Infections of 7,266 per day, and confirmed cases per day fluctuate around 3,500.  The ratio of Estimated to Confirmed is about 2.1.

Texas

For February 1, projections are 30,610 deaths, but 24,120 with 95% masking, saving 6,490 lives.  With 17,335 present cases, that is 13,275 cases to go.  The saved lives are 49% of those yet to be lost.  Currently, 69% of Texas wears masks, same as the national average.  Future deaths are 77% of current deaths.

Current Estimated Infections per day are 13,994.  Dividing by about 4,000 a day Confirmed, gives a 3.5 ratio.

Projected deaths per day are 199, which can be lowered to 79 with 95% masking, saving 120 per day, or 60%.

Florida

For February 1, projected deaths are 29,002, with 26,042 with 95% masking, saving 2,960 lives.  Current masking is 66%.  Current deaths are 16,544, so there are 12,458 more to go.  With more masking, 24% can be saved.  The projected deaths to February 1 are an increase of 75% over current deaths.

Estimated infections per day are currently 16,034.  Compared to about 3,000 confirmed infections per day, gives a ratio of 5.3.

New York

New York had already emerged from its large number of current deaths of 33,490.  Their projected deaths by February 1 are 38,591.  That will give them 5,101 to go, in the next 100 days, for an average of 51 a day.  They currently have 77% masking.  With 95% masking they will have 35,949 deaths, saving 2,647, or 52%.

Daily deaths on February 1 are projected to be 156, but they can be reduced to 63 with 95% masking, or only 40%.

Their current Estimated Infections per day are 1,344, but with the Confirmed cases per day being around, 1,500, the ratio must be about 1.0.

Pennsylvania

Projected deaths are 17,420, but 14,399 with 95% masking, saving 3,021 lives.  Current deaths are 8,599, giving 8,821 to go by February 1.  So savable lives are 34% of future losses.  Current masking is 67%.  Future deaths are 103% of current ones.

Current Estimated Infections per day are 4,095, with Confirmed ones about 1,400, giving a ratio of 2.9.

Michigan

February 1 projected deaths are 13,505, which can be reduced to 12,133, saving 1,372 lives.  Current deaths are 7,442, leaving 6,063 to go.  So 23% can be saved by 95% masking.  This is rather small considering that they are at 71% masking.  The future deaths are 81% of current deaths.

Current Estimated Infections per day are 4,184, with daily Confirmed cases about 2,500, giving a ratio of 1.7.

Wisconsin

Projected deaths are 6,272, with 95% masking reducing these to 4,983, saving 1,289 lives.  With current deaths at 1,686, this is 4,586 deaths to go.  So savable deaths by more masking are 28% of future deaths.  Future deaths are 172% of current deaths.  Current masking is 67%.

Current Estimated Infections per day are 3,805, but Confirmed cases per day have jumped from 2,500 to 7,500, so one can’t really get a ratio here.

Georgia

February 1 projections of deaths are 13,456, which can be lowered to 10,585 with 95% masking, saving 2,871 lives.  Current deaths are 7,769, giving 5,687 future deaths.  So savable lives are 51% of projections.  Future deaths are 73% of present deaths.

Current Estimated infections per day are 6,399, and Confirmed ones are about 1,250, giving a ratio of 5.1. 

Ohio

February 1 projected deaths are 10,671, but with 95% masking could be reduced to 7,364, saving 3,307 lives.  Current deaths are 5,308, meaning 5,363 are still to come.  The lives saved are 62% of future deaths.  Ohio is currently 67% masking.  Future deaths are 101% larger than current deaths.

On February 1, daily deaths of 93 could be cut down to 34, cutting the death rate to 37%.

Current Estimated Daily Infections are 2,547, with about 1,800 being confirmed, giving a ratio of 1.4.

North Carolina

February 1 projected deaths are 9,176, which can be reduced to 6,768 by 95% masking, saving 2,408 lives.   Current deaths are 4,084, so there are still 5,091 to go.  Lives saved would be 47% of those.  The deaths to go are 125% of current deaths.  Current masking is 69%.

The February 1 death rate is projected at 78 per day, which can be cut in half to 40 per day by 95% masking.

Current estimated daily infections are 4,006 per day, while current confirmed cases are around 2,000 per day, giving a ratio of 2.0.

Lives Saved in the States Covered Above

The US total lives saved by 95% masking is 62,775, in an earlier article.

The most populous four states:  CA, TX, FL, and NY total 18,513 lives saved, or 29.5% of the total.

The next 5 states considered above total another 11,397 lives saved, or 11.3% of the total.

All 9 states in this article sum to 29,910 lives saved, or 47.6% or almost half of all lives saved.

Future Percent Infected Per State:

As of February 1, the Percent Infected per state as given by an IHME map will be:

CA:  10.5-13.4%,

TX:   19.5-22.4%,

FL:   16.5-19.4%,

NY:   22.5-25.4%,

PA:    13.5-16.4%,

MI:    16.5-19.4%,

WI:    16.5-19.4%,

GA:    22.5-25.4%,

OH:    10.5-13.4%,

NC:    13.5-16.4%.

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IHME Projects 62,000 Lives Savable by Masking by February 1

Posted on October 23, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

IHME Projects 62,000 Lives Savable by Masking by February 1.

The October 22 IHME projections lower the February 1 death toll by 5,000, but decrease the lives savable by full masking by 11,000, compared to last week’s projection.

The February 1 projection of lives lost to the Coronavirus in the US is 385,611, with the current masking rate of 69%.  If we move to 95% masking now, the toll will be lowered to 322,836, a saving of 62,775 lives.  

From IHME, current Oct. 22 lives lost are 221,047, meaning that there are 164,564 more deaths to go until February 1.  The 62,775 lives savable are 38.1% of those deaths.

Daily deaths on February 1 are projected at 2,148, which could be reduced to 1,299 deaths per day with 95% masking.  This is a reduction to 60.5% of projected deaths per day.

Estimated Infections per day for October 22nd are 131,488.  This could be reduced to 126,175 with 95% masking.  Presently, about 50,000 cases per day are being confirmed by testing.  The ratio of Estimated to Confirmed is 2.6.

In a graph, about 24% of infections are being confirmed in the US, differing from above.  In the same graph, Germany has been confirming about 48% of their cases.

We can also use the IHME to tally the Coronavirus toll at the end of the present Presidential term on January 20. 

On January 20, there are projected to be 359,494 deaths, which could be reduced to 207,494 with 95% masking, saving 52,000 lives from now.  On October 22nd, IHME has 221,047 current deaths, so there are 138,447 to go.  The 52,000 Savable by more masking is 37.6% of the projected future deaths.

On January 20, there are projected to be 2,192 daily deaths, which can be reduced to 1,253 or 57% with 95% masking.

We note that Biden and CNN have been using the projections to February 28 that appeared in a newly published paper by IHME, but which was the projection on September 23, when US masking was taken at 49%.  Once IHME switched to Facebook survey data, masking changed to 69%, and the projected deaths were greatly reduced.

The IHME has complained that the CDC is hiding a lot of State and local data, which would be very useful.  They can’t say it, but I can:  this is part of hiding the dire situation by the current Administration.

The IHME is working on including vaccines.  We can only hope that they arrive soon, are distributed to the most needful, and that the government picks up the cost.  That should greatly reduce deaths, as long as people still keep some of the social distancing and mask wearing.

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Ratio of Excess Deaths to Confirmed Coronavirus Deaths by State

Posted on October 21, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

We use CDC data to early September as integrated by the New York Times in a September 23rd article.  The Excess Deaths are those in excess of those of the last few years, which count the full casualties of the disruptions of the barely contained US Coronavirus pandemic.  For various states, the data are from March 15 to September 5, or 12.

For the US as a whole, until September 5, the 200,000 Coronavirus Confirmed Deaths were just a part of the 267,000 Excess Deaths, which were 33% greater.

We show in the table the State and our calculation of the ratio of Excess Deaths in previous  years to the Confirmed Coronavirus Cases.  We include the four largest states and some other key states.

State Ratio of Excess to Confirmed Deaths
CA 1.68
TX 1.70
FL 1.71
NJ 1.14
NY 1.25
IL 1.52
MI 1.62
PA 1.24

 

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CDC Excess Deaths 50% More than Confirmed Coronavirus Deaths

Posted on October 21, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

The CDC has evaluated Excess Deaths up to October 3 from January 16.  Those account for the complete casualties from the Coronavirus pandemic attack on the US.  The Excess is over the average deaths in the last five years, 2015-2019.  Their main conclusion is that while confirmed COVID-19 cases were about 200,000, the Excess Deaths over the past year’s average were 50% greater than those Confirmed Coronavirus Deaths making almost 300,000 in Excess Deaths .  This is the same conclusion found in an earlier study through July.  They also project 400,000 Excess Deaths over past year averages by the end of the year.

CNN just announced that over 2.5 million years of life have been lost to the Coronavirus.  Dividing by the 224,000 confirmed Coronavirus deaths, this come down to 11.2 years per death.

A few days ago, Economist Larry Summers published in JAMA that if the Coronavirus ends next year, the US would have lost 16 trillion dollars, including the costs of lives lost.  The 2019 GDP was 21 trillion dollars, for comparison.

We present here the ratios of Excess Deaths to the past years average deaths by age category and racial identity, from the paper in the MMWR, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report of October 20 by Lauren Rosen, et al.

The increases of Excess Deaths over passed year deaths for the same period are given in the table below.

Age Interval Excess Deaths Over Past Years
< 25 -2.0%
25 – 44 26.5%
45 – 64 14.4%
65 – 74 24.1%
75 – 84 21.5%
> 85 14.7%

We present the increases in Excess Deaths over Past Year’s Deaths in the table below.  AI/AN is American Indian and Alaska Native.

Race Excess Deaths over Passed Year’s
Whites 11.9%
Latinos 53.6%
Blacks 32.9%
Asians 36.6%
AI/AN 28.9%

 

While Whites have the smallest Excess Deaths over previous year’s, their numbers are 57.4% of the total Excess Deaths, at 171,491.  The large increases for minority deaths is not explained, but health conditions and essential workers are mentioned.

We could add that the IHME projection of Confirmed Coronavirus Deaths to January 20, when the next Administration is sworn in, is 361,000.  If we add 50% to that for Excess Deaths over past years, we get 540,000 Excess Deaths over past years.

Here is the summary of Larry Summer’s analysis of what the Pandemic will cost us.

The loss for a family of four will be $200,000, or per capita, $64,000.

The 50% ratio of Excess Deaths to Confirmed Coronavirus Deaths varies in different locations and at different times.  Nevertheless, it is large and has not come down.  Rates of testing have increased, which should have brought down the ratio.  Normal health care is being restored, and this also should bring down this rate.

Another question is what is the factor of daily Coronavirus cases to those confirmed by tests.  The IHME has a factor of 4.3 for this, but their fits are closer to 3.  Dr. Sanjay Gupta on CNN said that this could be a factor of 5 to 10.  But if Excess Deaths are only 50% higher than Confirmed Coronavirus Deaths, there is no room for such large numbers.

 

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