May 27. Mourning the 100,000 Deaths, and Looking at the Future

Posted on May 28, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

Mourning the 100,000 Deaths, and Looking to the Future

Yes, we could have done much better to save lives, but our government is a strange mix, not up to swift action with great uncertainties.  Knowing what we know now, we will still stumble into the future very ineffectively.

We have noted many crossings of deaths in round numbers, in past flu epidemics, in past auto and gun losses, and in past wars.  We will still cross some more, and the disappointing thing is that we are still amazed as we cross more, and much larger than we expected.

I remember when the perfect confinement of the IHME model would only give us 62,000 deaths total, with almost none left.  Now, that model has lowered its recent prediction to 132,000.  A U. Penn-Wharton model today predicted 142,000.  A TV source said that this virus would continue forever, just like the common cold, although much more hazardous.  The IHME model cites the effectiveness of social distancing and masks, but it is now a political issue as to whether to wear one.  I was going to write another article pointing out that we are now the Planet of the Apes:  the rule of science deniers.

With 1.7 million known cases, and a factor of 5 to get to total cases, since 80% are not serious enough to warrant tests, there may be 8.5 million infected.  This is 2.7%, or about 1 in 40 Americans.  Even the 1.7 million is about 1 in 200 Americans.  Sociologists have established that we have an average in family, friends, and acquaintances of 150 to 200 people.  We have now reached the stage where we could all know somebody who has the Coronavirus, especially if we were not so socially isolated, as we soon won’t be.  Let’s hope that this changes people’s attitudes that the infected people are not some abstract “them” but actually “us”.  It also means that going out in crowds of 40 or more people carries a serious risk.

It is quite clear now that Trump is only concerned with being reelected and campaigning.  He will put up with whatever casualties occur just to restore some of the economy.  He also is campaigning from the far right, not the central Republicans.  While backing his demonstrators claiming that the first amendment gives them rights not to follow any reasonable orders (it doesn’t), Trump is now going to crack down on the entire social media because Twitter finally had the nerve to call his falsehoods on mail voting fraud, (which clarification is allowed by the First Amendment).

One poll of who would not take a vaccine is a third.  Another said a half would not take it.  Even with a vaccine, it will take years to produce and distribute it world-wide.  There are no price controls on Remdesivir, despite it being developed with government funds.  The current anti-bodies test in use can generate up to 50% of false negatives, according to the CDC, and cannot be used to screen people to return to work, or to protect the President, for that matter.

Something like a quarter of the deaths come from nursing homes, yet we have no national program, aid, or financing coming to improve the situation.  Meat packing plants are overcrowded, and easily pass the virus to all workers.  Yet Trump forces them to work.  Why not call out the military to double or triple the size of the work space to reduce their susceptibility, and supply them with PPE, since they are an essential industry. 

Trump’s contradicting all of his government’s safety guidelines, and supporting those who bypass them, is going to continue the infectiveness of the Coronavirus, prolong the battle, and lead to yet more deaths than necessary.  All against his reelection goals.  He also has not yet aided states and local governments to save their jobs, and aid first responders and their hospitals.  Yet he has time to play golf and appear to claim credit for a space launch that was started in 2004, long before his term in office.

It is still up to states and local governments, churches, the press, and individual social pressure to carry out standards of due caution, social distancing, wearing masks, and self quarantining of the vulnerable and already infected, in order to slow the deadly effects of the Coronavirus.   

Posted in Coronavirus, COVID-19, Donald Trump, IHME Projections | Leave a comment

Military Style Protocols for the Return of In-person Classes

Posted on May 21, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

The Military Style Protocols for the Return of In-person Classes

Having gotten used to one-way aisles and six steps of separation in lines, we design protocols should we decide to go to back to in-person classes.

First, we radically reduce the number in any classroom, but shorten the classes, and repeat them during the day via videos, with short question sessions by zoom with the speaker.  In addition, we expect and advise people with advanced age and vulnerable preconditions to just watch and participate from home.  They can submit questions through the Q&A feature of Zoom, or text them to the class organizer.

Filing in and out will be done in a military fashion, with people entering in one door, and exiting through another.  Seats are filled in the order of arrival, with nobody passing anybody during seating.  Side seats can be reserved for handicapped people, and front row seats for those with hearing or vision problems, or the handicapped.

The seating pattern can be every third seat, but the old rows are just every other row now.  So the room capacity is halved by every other row, and divided by a third for every third seat.  Since there are less seats now, we don’t need the aisles, so we can expand the width of the seating.  Instead of reducing the 180 seats to just 30, we may be able to expand to 40.  The seats will be staggered row by row, so that nobody is directly behind anybody else, but centered between the people in front and behind.  Nobody will have a blocked view.

Anybody coughing or sneezing is asked (ordered) to leave.  No excuses.  This would leave out somebody like me who has allergies, but I always have the at-home option, and I don’t want to make anybody nervous.

Lecturers who do not want to lecture in person, can lecture from home or their office, and have their talk projected onto our screen.  Those who lecture in person would be guaranteed that the equipment is cleaned before every talk.

People will leave as in grade school or in the military:  one row at a time, with an enforced six foot separation.

Everybody can take a disinfectant paper upon entrance, and wipe off the armrests of their seat.  There will be small trash bins between seats.  Everybody will wear masks, just like at the market, or businesses.

We will purchase an infrared camera, and monitor every entrant.

Classes can be an hour long, and staged with repeats every hour and a half.  Those that register to attend, will choose their time, until extra will be assigned earlier or later.

Clearly, science, medical, opera, and other classes of 40 or less can be single hour and a half sessions, but with no breaks.

A suggested schedule for very popular classes with three sessions a day is Class A:  9:00-10:00, 10:30-11:30, 12:00-1:00.  Then class B could be one session for 1:30-3:00, or if two sessions are needed, 1:30-2:30, 3:00-4:00.

The half hour break between sessions, allows for an orderly entrance and exit.

People line up outside to enter, staying at least six feet, and preferably 10 feet apart.  People who enter hug the wall, and those who exit use the walkway next to the plants and the street.  The elevators are a problem to be solved, but for OLLI classes at UC Irvine, for one hour classes, we can park in the ground floor lot next to the building.  Wearing face masks will also help.  

We should urge the use of the much better surgical masks, rather than cloth ones.  They should be in supply by then.  It would be nice if checking could be outside, with the operators sitting far back from the entrants and the cameras.  Hand sanitizer should be provided to all those who think it is wise to use upon entering or leaving.

It might be better to use cross ventilation with open doors when possible, but that is noisy.  Since we have betters filters on the air conditioning, that might be the best air cleaner.  We need the filters changed on a schedule.  When the class is unoccupied, UV-C lights can help disinfect the room.  Unfortunately, the less people talk upon entrance or exit, the better.

For OLLI at UC Irvine, next to the Irvine train station, the city or Amtrak should be encouraged to have a permanent set of restroom and waiting room cleaners.

Participants will have to sign liability release forms, just as we do for class trips.  They will be asked to inform OLLI if they come down with symptoms, and if they test positive for the Coronavirus.  We may take high resolution pictures for each class seating, so that if anybody comes down with the Coronavirus, we can identify those in nearby seats, and notify them.  Class attendance is recorded, so it is easy to know which classes to inspect.

Of course, a guiding committee and the University is going to have their policies.  These are just suggestions.  The safest thing to do is to not have in-person classes, but these do not seem to be that popular.  

On the other hand, the web goes everywhere, and we could recruit a large web membership.  We are participating in webinars and conferences all over the country, which we couldn’t do otherwise.  We are also occasionally getting web class speakers from far away or even difficult to commute nearby Universities or companies that would not be participating otherwise.

We benefit that all of our participants are adults who are concerned and willing to follow sensible rules.

Posted in Coronavirus, COVID-19, Education, Health Care, UC Irvine | Leave a comment

May 15. Would You Buy a Warped Vaccine From This Man?

Posted on May 15, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

Update:  A poll on CNN asked if a vaccine was ready now, would you take it?  Unfortunately, only 66% said yes, and 33% said no.  I didn’t mean the title to suggest at all the position of an anti-vaxer.  It’s just that Trump is doing everything to cause us to lose trust in any of his projects.  It is nice to have an expert like Moncef Slaoui, Ph. D., heading Operation Warp Speed, but you couldn’t find somebody with more conflicts of interest: working on one particular vaccine, on several pharmaceutical boards of directors, with $10 million investment in one company, and being a pharmaceutical venture capitalist.  Since he is not in any given executive department, does the Senate even have to vote on his appointment?  Is he subject to any oversight?  Does the House have any oversight of his budget?

“There’s No Ego In This”, an odd statement by Trump.

Which means “America First” is canceled?

About accuracy, Trump defended his five-minute Abbot speed test use in the White House, saying it can also be given twice.  The test may give false negatives 1/3 or 1/2 of the time.  Not a good comparison when pondering rushed testing of a vaccine.

I was waiting for the vaccine to be distributed, and then for Trump to cast shade on it.  I don’t have to wait any longer, he already said “if you want to take it”, thus already backing the the anti-vaxers.  (Why does my autocorrect keep substituting vaxer with Vader?). With the rapidly spreading Coronavirus, and the spreadability from asymptomatic and presymptomatic infected, you don’t have herd immunity until everybody is vaccinated.  Arthur Caplan just repeated my thought on CNN.  He is the Head of the Division of Medical Ethics at NYU.

Trump also backed the Federalist right wingers, who say that only 1% will die, by saying that it will only kill a tiny fraction, and that most don’’t get seriously infected.  They are using a factor that only 1/7th of those infected get symptoms requiring testing and hospitalization.  Then of those testing positive, about 7% die in the US.  That gives a 1% death rate for those infected.  

The problem with that is that there are 1.43 million tested positives in the US, so maybe 7 times as many or 10 million cases, and we have lost 86,000.  But if nobody is vaccinated in time, the US population is 320 million, or 32 times as many potential cases.  That would mean 2.8 million deaths.  Using their 1% figure would be 3.2 million deaths.  That is a vast tragedy, essentially half of the Holocaust.  But it would be even much worse.  The whole reason for the two month’s lockdown was to flatten the curve.  If you increase the load by a factor of 32, only 3% of those who need hospitalization would get it.  So the entire 4% of those infected who need hospitalization would be lost.  That increases the death toll to 13 million.  That is twice the Holocaust.

If all people would wear masks, as they do in Asian countries, and obeyed the six foot social distancing (I prefer 10 feet when it is obtainable in many circumstances, and limited time of contact), and stayed home when sick, and we had more testing, we just might make the reopening work.  Trump no longer cares, even to flattening the curve.  He wants all schools reopening, even though it is unworkable.

Remember, by the time you see deaths in 14 days after reopening, the number of cases has already taken off exponentially.

After bragging about on the order of a 100 possible US vaccination types and 500 worldwide, Trump bragged about Operation Warp Speed having already narrowed down to fourteen, and would soon be cutting it down further.  No mention is ever made of which blue ribbon committee and what criteria and data they used in making their choices.  Ergo, politics and cronyism?  Note, that yesterday, Trump was still backing hydroxychloroquine, again casting doubt for those wondering about the safety of a Warp Speed vaccine.

The Trump administration finally released the 60 some page CDC guidance, but shrunk to a five chart report, after 33 days.  Any high school student could have made up those charts in an evening.

I can see baseball returning if they sanitize the baseball before every pitch.  This will lead to a new spitball-like pitch, called the “sanitizer”.  But I haven’t worked out baserunning with six feet of separation.

In sports, one doesn’t want ancient Colosseum spectacles that resemble Spartacus and the Gladiators.   College and Professional athletes are the best athletes, with incredibly developed lung capacities.  Since the Coronavirus can give year long or permanent damage to lungs and other organs, it would be career ending for these athletes.  We don’t want to force them into competitions where this could happen, even if Trump wants to quickly restore such spectacles.

The Writer’s comments.  As an ex-physicist, I have to note the odd title of Trump’’s Operation Warp Speed.  Despite the 54 years since Star Trek created the fictional Warp Drive, no inspired physicist has yet figured out how to do it, or even if it is possible.  Not the greatest title for a seven month’s vaccine development project.  The title of this article comes from an old Nixon opposition ad:  Would You Buy a Used Car From This Man?

And so it goes, in the era of Trump versus the Coronavirus.  

Posted in Coronavirus, COVID-19, Donald Trump, Health Care | Leave a comment

May 13. Coronavirus Griefs

Posted on May 13, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

May 13.  Blowing Off More Coronavirus Steam

I had the idea that we should consider restaurants serving outside, and taking over neighboring streets and parking lots to do so.  This is a rather obvious idea, and is being tested in some states.  The problem is, that kitchens are often small and crowded.  Everybody also uses the same restrooms.

When I was in Japan, half a lifetime ago, I remember their having separate subway cars for women, treating them politely.  I can see New York City running them for seniors and those with medical vulnerabilities, if they have rfid cards issued by their doctors.  These would be checked somehow to be virus free riders, and to have social distancing spacing.  They could be continuously sanitized by attendants.  Signs of respect, and an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.

I can see large cities making their own cautious opening rules in states that are run by mainly rural counties.  However, some states are overruling cities, which is really unfair to the city dwellers.  

Trump is demanding that states refuse to pay unemployment to people who refuse jobs, even if the jobs have high infection risks.  He also ordered meat packing plants to stay open under the Defense Production Act, despite them being the major Coronavirus outbreak centers from closely packed workers.  Did this happen because Trump stopped inspecting the plants?  I looked up that 115 years ago, Upton Sinclair wrote the novel “The Jungle” about the mistreatment of meat packing employees.

As NY Times economist Paul Krugman keeps pointing out, the interest rates on borrowing are very low.  Nancy Pelosi wants a $3 trillion bill to bail out states and people.  Governor Cuomo repeats that the Blue states subsidize Red states through federal taxes.  If Republicans don’t aid Blue states to recover their economies, by having to lay off essential personnel and teachers, they will also pay far less federal taxes, and Red state subsidies will disappear.  One of Trump’s economic advisors said openly on Fox News, that they would not bail out Blue states.  Federal workers are supposed to be non-partisan.

While personal care shops can make a few bucks in a few weeks, any Coronavirus cases that they cause have a 1/5 or 1/7 chance of ending up in a hospital, running up hundreds of thousands of dollars to be paid by Trump’s government.  For a business President, it is very short sighted about investments.  No wonder Trump ran as an expert on bankruptcy.  Oh, and our brilliant Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell wasn’t joking when he said that Blue states should declare bankruptcy. 

It is extremely disturbing that the 60 plus page government guidelines for opening, drafted by the CDC, had to be sent to political operatives in the White House for review.  That is probably not in the CDC mission statement or responsibilities.  That was sent on April 10, we now learn.  It still hasn’t been approved, even in watered down form.  It is now 33 days since April 10.  That is almost 5 weeks.  It is two weeks into opening relaxation of many states.  How many have been infected, how many have been hospitalized, how many have and will die without this input by the CDC.  The New York Times just released the leaked draft yesterday. 

It was also upsetting that at a Senate hearing, the CDC Director Dr. Redfield, had no idea how the limited supply of Remdesivir would be distributed to prioritized cases, which is really the CDC’s responsibility.  Obviously, it will be dealt with politically.

While the Coronavirus is dangerous to a few children who catch it, that is not the point about delaying in-person classes.  A lot of teachers and staff are older, and/or have vulnerable medical conditions.  Furthermore, what happened in Italy, is that kids brought the virus home, infected their parents, and often grandparents living or interacting with them.  Trump wants kids in school, so that parents can go to work, and also get exposed.

The Wisconsin Supreme Court just struck down the Democratic Governor’s stay-at-home order.  We can see Republican suits on this in all such split states.

The problems are that there are not enough tests, tracers, confinement hotels, and attitudes of obeying virus protocols, to succeed in the states opening up.

Another problem is that only 40% of Americans, or 140 million, take the flu shots.  The flu itself can claim 66,000 American lives.  This year, the similarity of flu and Coronavirus symptoms can overwhelm tests and emergency room visits, if people do not almost universally take their flu shots.

Experts have decided that the number of infected people is about 7 times those that have been tested positive, who largely have symptoms, in order to get tested.  That is a lot lower than other communities that have been antibody tested.

The much Trump ballyhooed Abbot 15 minute tests, are now in doubt, but in a very small study.  They might be as much as 50% likely to give false negatives, missing identifying only half of the infected.  This makes the White House a very hazardous place.  Remember Trump excusing the lack of tests on that our tests would be more accurate than any others?

Trump seems to have found a replacement for the deposed head of vaccines who he demoted, Dr. Bright, who also is a whistleblower, to testify tomorrow to the House.  Trump’s replacement is from industry.

So that is about all of my griefs, until more will appear tomorrow.

Posted in Coronavirus, COVID-19, Health Care | Leave a comment

May 13. Coronavirus IHME Update

Posted on May 13, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

We give the same table as two days ago but with the new updated projections.  Some states had significant increases.  The mobility or social distancing decreases have only changed slightly in two days.

The U. Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) has updated their data on cases and deaths, as well as social distancing policies, on May 10.  We present a table of the 30 leading US states in present deaths, IHME summer end projections, and percent of social distancing  decrease in the long term.  The social distancing projections level out by mid May, as in New York on May 15.  The death data are the night numbers from Johns Hopkins on May 10.

Note:  This table is being updated over the next hour.

The IHME projection of total US deaths has increased by 10,000, to 147,000, with a 95% probability range from 113,000 to 225,000.  By June 1 the projection is 114,000.  There are now about 84,000 deaths in the US.  Total deaths projection for New York State are 34,100, with a range of 33,000 to 36,000.  Total death projection for California are 5,800, with a range of 4,300 to 8,500.

The table has the state name, present deaths, projected deaths, and the projected long term percent of contact reduction by social distancing in the state’s policies.

State Deaths Proj. Deaths Distancing
New York 27,477 34,100 -61%
New Jersey 9,714 14,700 -56%
Massachusetts 5,315 9,600 -59%
Michigan 4,714 6,600 -48%
Pennsylvania 4,094 12,400 -28%
Illinois 3,792 7,800 -44%
Connecticut 3,125 5,300 -45%
California 2,957 5,800 -47%
Louisiana 2,381 3,200 -32%
Florida 1,827 5,800 -36%
Maryland 1,809 3,800 -56%
Indiana 1,619 2,400 -31%
Georgia 1,517 2,100 -28%
Ohio 1,483 2,800 -32%
Texas 1,172 3,100 -37%
Colorado 1,062 1,600 -44%
Washington 974 1,200 -48%
Virginia 928 1,900 -42%
Minnesota 638 2,200 -35%
North Carolina 625 4,400 -22%
Arizona 595 2,900 -43%
Missouri 551 2,300 -22%
Mississippi 465 1,200 -19%
Rhode Island 462 920 -34%
Alabama 450 800 -24%
Wisconsin 421 790 -32%
South Carolina 362 470 -23%
D. Of Columbia 350 650 -67%
Nevada 331 530 -49%
Kentucky 321 730 -30%

We note that the states with the largest death tolls range in social distancing reduction from -44% to -61%, with the exception of Pennsylvania at a low value of -28%, Louisiana at -32%, and Indiana at -31%.  The largest reduction of -61% is the most needed one, New York.

We note that most states are split between rural areas with fewer death rates, and urban areas with higher death rates, which are not reflected in just statewide data.

In general, I think of states above a 40% reduction as effective, and those below that as ineffective.

Pennsylvania, Mississippi, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama, Missouri, and Georgia are the least effective at less than 30% reduction. Their projected total deaths are two to four times those at present.

Next are Indiana, Wisconsin, Louisiana, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Kentucky in the low 30%, also with projected total deaths about a factor of 1.5 to two over the present number.  Even those with 36% reduction have relatively high projected death increases.

CNN now has a map of states by the increase or decrease in deaths cases of the past week versus the previous week.

 

 

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May 11. Coronavirus Projected Deaths and Social Distancing in the IHME Model

Posted on May 11, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

May 11.  Coronavirus Projected Deaths and Social Distancing in the IHME Model

The U. Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) has updated their data on cases and deaths, as well as social distancing policies, on May 10.  We present a table of leading US states in present deaths, IHME summer end projections, and percent of social distancing  decrease in the long term.  The social distancing projections level out by mid May, as in New York on May 15.  At the tables‘ end we also include some other states with low deaths, but early openings.  The death data are the night numbers from Johns Hopkins on May 10.

The IHME projection of total US deaths has essentially remained the same, now at 137,000 with a 95% probability range from 103,000 to 224,000.  By June 1 the projection is 111,000.  There are now about 80,000 deaths in the US.  Total deaths projection for New York State are 31,620, with a range of 30,000 to 34,000.  Total death projection for California are 6,100, with a range of 4,200 to 9,800.

The table has the state name, present deaths, projected deaths, and the projected long term percent of contact reduction by social distancing in the state’s policies.

State Deaths Proj. Deaths Distancing
New York 26,641 31,600 -60%
New Jersey 9,256 14,800 -55%
Massachusetts 4,979 7,500 -59%
Michigan 4,555 6,200 -48%
Pennsylvania 3,806 10,700 -28%
Illinois 3,406 7,400 -44%
Connecticut 2,967 4,600 -45%
California 2,718 6,100 -47%
Louisiana 2,286 3,200 -32%
Florida 1,721 5,400 -36%
Maryland 1,644 2,600 -56%
Indiana 1,508 4,100 -31%
Georgia 1,406 3,600 -28%
Ohio 1,341 3,000 -33%
Texas 1,094 2,600 -36%
Colorado 971 1,700 -44%
Washington 931 1,100 -48%
Virginia 839 1,400 -43%
Minnesota 578 2,100 -35%
Arizona 536 3,000 -43%
Missouri 503 2,000 -23%
Mississippi 430 1,236 -18%
Wisconsin 400 673 -32%
South Carolina 331 744 -22%
D. Of Columbia 323 536 -67%
Nevada 310 511 -49%
Kentucky 304 703 -34%

We note that the states with the largest death tolls range in social distancing reduction from -44% to -60%, with the exception of Pennsylvania at a low value of -28%, Louisiana at -32%, and Indiana at -31%.  The largest reduction of -60% is the most needed one, New York.

We note that most states are split between rural areas with fewer death rates, and urban areas with higher death rates, which are not reflected in just statewide data.

In general, I think of states above a 40% reduction as effective, and those below that as ineffective.

Pennsylvania, Mississippi, South Carolina, Missouri, and Georgia are the least effective at less than 30% reduction. Their projected total deaths are two to four times those at present.

Next are Indiana, Wisconsin, Louisiana, Ohio, and Kentucky in the low 30%, also with projected total deaths about a factor of 1.5 to two over the present number.  Even those with 36% reduction have relatively high projected death increases.

We have not been thorough in searching out all states with low distancing values.

Fortunately, CNN has a map of states which have increased mobility by more than 20% from previous IHME estimates, in brown, and of 15-20% in yellow.  Fortunately, none of those states is in the top 10 of present deaths, shown in our table above, although Georgia is number 11.

 

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May 9. White House Laxity, Pompeo Silliness, Cubic Zombies

Posted on May 9, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

It just goes to figure that Donald Trump’s enforced bravado masochism not following or even allowing his Coronavirus Task Force to obey the standard mitigation protocols would immediately spread any virus which eventually would hit the White House.   The three that so far are reported to go into quarantine are the scientists or head of the science agencies, Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Dr. Stephen Hahn, the Commissioner of the FDA, and Dr. Redfield, Director of the CDC.  While they feel obliged to set an example, Trump also gets them out of his hair.  It is another great failing to allow this crucial Task Force to be infected or necessary to quarantine them.  Dr. Fauci said he will testify before the Senate.  The simplest rules of six foot separation and wearing face masks were even left off of Trump’s mailed out rules.

Trump has moved on from the real world and the Public Health problems that he couldn’t solve, and gone to a fantasy world where you don’t even need a vaccine, and the Coronavirus will simply vanish by itself.  This will happen even with the lack of plentiful testing, or billions for tracking and confining.  All Trump wants is that his economic miracle is restored, regardless of how many lives are lost.

Trump has always tried to show us that he is a Demi-god, the best President ever, the best leader ever, the inherent scientific genius, the best friend to all of the world’s dictators, the provider of all US job growth, the promoter of saving drugs, and also weird treatments.                                                                     

Trump goes to a Navy doctor to get his annual checkup, and the doctor reports that Trump’s genes are so good that he could live 200 years.  We now know that Trump was going to make him head of the VA as a reward.  At this point, reference to Trump as genetically superior with his German ancestry is just insensitive and insulting to others.  Trump obviously told him to say this, as he had done to his campaign doctor.  But with Trump, he not only wants us to believe this, but he believes it himself.  The rest of us seniors are afraid of the Coronavirus, and doing everything we can to avoid infection.  Trump is 73, Fauci is 79, Hahn 60.  I assumed everyone close to the President is getting tested every day, but apparently others in the White House are only tested weekly.  The other thing that has come to light, are statements that even after one is infected, that may not trigger a positive test for days.

Dear Mike Pompeo, the American chosen for being the smartest in foreign policy.  If the evil empire created the deadly stealth Coronavirus to destroy the American economy, why did they release it next door in Wuhan, one of the leading Chinese industrial cities, which would result in tens of thousands of deaths, and a complete disruption of Chinese life and industrial supply chains?  Why is it that the State Department, which has no separate intelligence agency, knows better than the CIA, the Defense Intelligence Agency, and the communications interception network?  Why aren’t you being asked these questions?  Is the US developing bio weapons?  And, what US city and state are you planning to test these on?  Why don’t you share your convincing knowledge with the US Intelligence agencies, so they can check them out and agree with you?  Why don’t you brief the Senate Intelligence Committee, so they can back you?  

Why did the President say that the horseshoe bats were too far away from the Wuhan market, thirty miles, to be there?  Why did Peter Navarro say that they were 200 miles away?  Why are Chinese cars and trucks unable to go 30 miles or 200 miles? 

If you have intercepted communications, why does the President blame the Chinese government from not informing him and the world about the seriousness of the virus?  Are you saying that the Chinese did not even warn their own governments that they were releasing the virus in China first?

Mike Pompeo actually has an impressive academic and government experience record.  It is a shame that he was probably forced to back Trump’s conspiracy theory susceptibility.  Remember, Trump became famous for leading birtherism about President Obama.

We can’t fail to mention that Trump’s Kevin Hassett Chief Economic Advisor Kevin  cubic fit to the Coronavirus death curve, that one day showed the curve heading rapidly to zero.  Every high school student knows that cubic curves come from minus infinity, can become positive, then turn down and can become negative, and then shoot up to plus infinity.  There is no epidemiological meaning to the curve when it was and when it later turns negative.  This is totally hidden in the graph of the curve only being on the positive segment.   The economic advisor has no experience in epidemiology.  Since Trump has no idea what a cubic fit is, he was probably misled to think that it was an acceptable theory that he could believe in.  However, the negative deaths, would also be a prediction of Zombies arising from the dead.  Like others in the White House, they are all seeking brains.  When they do find them, they block them off, and roast them as soon as they start to speak out, like with Dr. Bright, who was the director of The Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority.

What literary analogues come to mind?  Alice in Wonderland.  Gulliver’s Travels, where Gulliver is immune to the mini Lilliputian’s army.  

Some days, you just have to let off a little steam.

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May 5. State Coronavirus Deaths with Reopenings Often Doubled

Posted on May 5, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

May 5.  State Coronavirus Deaths with Reopenings Often Doubled in the IHME Model

The May 4 projections of the IHME model of the University of Washington is close to doubling long term Coronavirus deaths for the US and for some states.  We present the leading states new death projections compared to the previous projections without reopenings, and the present deaths as of May 1.

The IHME projection of total US deaths is now 134,500 with 95% range of 95,000 to 243,000.  The previous projection without openings was 73,000, and deaths as of May 1 were 65,249.

For comparison with Sweden, which relies on trust rather than of enforced regulations.  Nevertheless, their advice of seniors and vulnerable people isolating, and people staying apart in public is being followed.  They have not closed businesses or schools, however.  The projection for Sweden by the end of August is 10,200 deaths, with 95% limits of (3,500 to 38,000).  As of May 1 used in the fits, there were only 2,665 deaths.

Table of Projected Deaths of States not Relaxing Mitigations.

The columns are: the States; the Deaths on May 1; the Projected total Deaths With Reopening, from the May 4 fit; and the Projected total Deaths with Restrictions from the April 28 fit.

State Deaths Reopening Restricted
New York 23,800 32,100 24,100
New Jersey 7,483 16,000 7,100
Massachusetts 3,761 7,700 5,600
Michigan 3,915 7,100 3,800
Connecticut 2,347 4,100 3,400
Pennsylvania 2,665 8,600 2,300
Illinois 2,455 6,400 2,300
California 2,115 4,700 2,000

Table of Projected Deaths of States which have Relaxed Mitigations

State Deaths Reopening Restricted
Georgia 1,184 4,900 2,259
Florida 1,320 4,000 1,900
Indiana 1,151 6,200
Texas 853 3,600 1,900
Colorado 814 1,300 1,050
Kentucky 298 537 517
Mississippi 259 438 380
South Carolina 262 1,112 351
Wisconsin 329 717 331
Nevada 248 480
Arizona 328 1,045

In the Los Angeles Times, a new biology article has shown that the virus striking the East Coast was probably a mutation that was more spreadable than the original or West Coast virus.  This complicates the development of a vaccine with a year-long lead time.

Dr. Bright, who was in charge of vaccine development in HHS and was transferred, has filed a whistleblower complaint pointing out that he would not go along with the administration awarding contracts by cronyism.

The White House is considering disbanding the White House Coronavirus Task Force, perhaps by May Day, May 23rd.  This will also free up the Vice President to return to running for re-election.

 

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May 4. The CDC Estimates Double the Death Rate by June 1.

Posted on May 4, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

May 4. The CDC Estimates Double the Death Rate by the End of the Month

The President is backing the opening, and is now willing to sacrifice at least 30,000 more Americans to get it done.  The prediction of IHME was 72,000, which won’t be achieved by premature opening, and FEMA and the CDC is now predicting 100,000 deaths.  Of Course, the total number of US deaths is already 67,000.  The news just announced that the updated IHME or University of Washington Model is now predicting 135,000 deaths by August!  This is not on their website yet.

The Vietnam War started in 1955 under President Eisenhower, and lasted through President Kennedy, then President Johnson, then President Nixon, and was finally ended in 1975 by President Gerald Ford.  Can imagine the reaction of these Presidents if they were told that the death toll of the war would be doubled, just because people would not stay at home for a few more weeks?

The New York Times received an internal projection of daily deaths until the end of this month.  The graph is shown below, from CNN.  The blue dots are the actual number of deaths per day, which are currently 1,750 deaths per day.  The solid red line is the projection of deaths per day, which reaches 3,000 deaths per day, on the logarithmic vertical axis.  Before we criticize the curve, we note that the Administration says that this has not been vetted by the White House Coronavirus Task Force.  We also update that this is a Johns Hopkins model, and they say that they were not finished yet.

With the difference of 1,250 deaths a day, how long does it take to raise the projected deaths from the present 67,000 to 100,000, or by 33,000?  Answer, 26.4 days.  But this is just until the end of May, on June 1, on an exponentially increasing curve!!!  This means that total deaths by the time it finally ends will be …? 

My criticism of the leaked model is that the red line fit lingers at about 500 deaths per day, while the data is actually at 1,750 per day.  Any decent model would be adjusted every day to agree with the actual data.  What is wrong with FEMA and the CDC that they are even circulating this?  To adjust it, the red curve has to be multiplied by a factor of 3.5!  Does this mean to expect not 3,000 deaths per day by the end of the month, but 10,000?  Inquiring minds want to know.  Another example of the fog of Trump’s Coronavirus War.  The model above also estimates that the present 25,000 new cases a day will leap to 200,000 new infections a day by June 1.

Dr. Ali Mokdad of the IHME model said that they are now including four new effects:

1  The heat effect reduces the Coronavirus by 2% for every degree centigrade.  Since Southern California has warmed from say 65 degrees F to 80 degrees F, or 15 degrees F, or 8 degrees C, leading to a 16% reduction, or Reduction by a sixth.

2.  Increased testing bringing the numbers down.

3.  Density of cities.

4.   Mobility increasing mortality, and people wearing masks now.

Of the hundred or so possible vaccines, the Trump Administration has already chosen 14 and only 14 to back.  What panel of national and international experts made this decision?  (None?).  What were their criteria?  Where is their report?  Especially since the recent head of the vaccine agency was just fired.  How much weight was given to cronyism and America First, and just plain promised speed and nothing else, and Trump’s innate genius?  Were all possible approaches and types of vaccine included?  And why the rush, without waiting at least for first or second stage trials?  We will never know.

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May 2. The Plague in the Age of the GIANT EGO

Posted on May 2, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

The Plague in the Age of the GIANT EGO

Today’s story:  Trump cancels research on the spread of bat viruses to humans.  Probably to back the right wing theory that the Coronavirus plague originated in a lab in Wuhan.  This does not really put the blame on China.  A US inspection of the lab last year found security lacking, and the lab applied for US funding to increase security.  The Trump administration denied it.  The point is, they were doing research on the passage of viruses from bats to people, something important to people all over the world.  At one news conference, Trump blamed the lab saying that the kind of bat in the Coronavirus genes weren’t present in Wuhan, but were thirty miles away.  As if bat sellers don’t have cars or trucks.

Every mainstream publication has run articles about Trump’s administration ignoring warnings of pandemics, and about the particular Coronavirus, during his entire administration, and in December, January, and February.  This started with Trump dismissing the World Health part of the Security Counsil in 2018.  Then skipping many security briefings in January, and never reading the daily briefings.

Last night, GIIANT-EGO fired the deputy Inspector General of Health and Human Services for issuing an honest report of shortages of testing and equipment at hospitals.  So much for honest assessments even within the Administration.

A week ago, Trump fired the experienced leader of the effort to find a vaccine for the virus, Dr. Bright.  Yesterday, Trump claimed he was now in charge of finding the vaccine.  There goes the game.  He will back the unchecked two month one, rather than the conventionally tested yearlong ones.  If and when that fails or turns out to have low probability side effects, not visible in small tests, it will scare people from taking any vaccine developed under Trump.  Trump also backed the anti-vaxers during his first election campaign in one of the debates.  

The anti-vaccine groups are especially important now, since people are shunning medical offices, and children are going without their standard vaccinations.  This could lead to other epidemics when in-person schools start in several states in the fall. 

The GIANT EGO had to have his name put on all of the checks mailed out by the government in the rescue bills.  Then, the EGO had to have his signature on all of the letters sent out recipients telling them that the checks were being deposited into their accounts.  Since Trump is not paying for these $2.5 trillion aid, but us taxpayers will, he didn’t deserve this recognition.  The funding is given by vote of the Congress, not by him.

This article was precipitated by the one mailing of a card that I got on the Coronavirus.  The front side was mostly covered by the following in GIANT Font:

PRESIDENT TRUMP’S CORONAVIRUS GUIDELINES FOR AMERICA

If I had to pick one person in the US who has publicly flaunted the guidelines and given the most high level encouragement of the Gun-Trump groups protesting guidelines, it would be the GIANT EGO.  None of the soon to be 40 states reopening have even matched the first Gateway requirement to reach Phase I.  Having taken up the entire front side of the card, the actual instructions were printed on the backside in the tiniest font.  It would have been much more appropriate to title the rules:  America’s Coronavirus Guidelines.  Only 35% of people trust Trump on the Coronavirus.  The advice fails to mention wearing masks.  It also fails to mention a six foot separation.  It doesn’t mention the protocol of calling your doctor before going to an office or an emergency room if you have symptoms.  It doesn’t mention what the symptoms are.

Yesterday, the GIANT EGO barred the US House from getting a presentation by Dr. Anthony Fauci, the Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force.  What is the GIANT EGO hiding?  What isn’t he hiding?  Dr. Fauci has talked live to all of the standard networks, and protected his answers about the failures of the Administration, in order to keep some real science input into the Administration.  Same for Dr. Deborah Birx, the Coronavirus Response Coordinator for the White House Coronavirus Task Force. 

The announcement of the success of Remdesivir in shortening hospital stays for the Coronavirus was not done by the doctors involved, or by the company involved, where all the credit belongs.  It was done in a public meeting with the GIANT EGO, so he could get credit for it.

The daily Task Force briefings was carried on CSPAN and the cable news channels, simply because the GIANT EGO was self praising, when he wasn’t lining up the other speakers to praise him.  This is how the GIANT EGO won the 2016 election as well.

The scandal in the Meat Plants of over 5,000 infected, is because the Administration declined inspections, leaving the plants to self regulate.  They don’t practice any of the protections that are common elsewhere.  The don’t have PPE supplied to their workers.  The GIANT EGO has forced these poor workers back on the job using the Defense Production Act, without adding adoption of the protective practices and inspections.

The GIANT EGO ordered the graduating class of West Point to return to their graduation, so that he can speak and get the photo op of speaking to them.  For most, this will involve airplane flights and hotels and restaurants for them and their families, putting them at increased risk.  Then, they fly back to every state in the country, magnifying any infection.

There are only two people in the country who, along with their families, are guarded by the vast Secret Service to be protected from infection by the Coronavirus.  They flaunt that, by not wearing masks.  They also flaunt it by arranging these photo-ops which put others in danger.

I don’t have news references to verity, but I strongly suspect that the US response was handicapped by Administration’s Buy American, or America First manufacturing policies.  I think that in all things needed, they refused to buy from abroad, especially China, which was two months ahead of us in manufacturing PPE, ventilators, swabs, medicines, and in testing medicines.  They will back and focus only on American products as medicines and vaccines.  This is especially crucial with respect to China, where many of our medicines or chemicals for medicines are made.  The evidence for this is partly that Peter Navarro, the China paranoid, has a key roll in this Coronavirus battle as the Director of Trade and Manufacturing, and the Defense Production Act coordinator.

We can’t leave China, without excoriating the GIANT EGO for his abandonment of the World Health Organization.  This is when WHO needs our yearly half billion to fight the spread of the Coronavirus into Africa, which has no medical defenses.  This is no only a humanitarian issue for our consciences in the US, but the delayed African infections will come back to haunt us in a further wave.  Why did G-EGO do this?  He himself gave us five explanations, lacking one good one.  He wants to blame WHO for us not responding in time, because they did not give us a warning.  G-EGO has a compulsive retaliation against the WHO head for criticizing his shutting off air travel from China.  He is upset that China does not give much to WHO, like we do, which should be totally irrelevant.  He claims that China dominates the WHO.  After Congress puts $2.5 trillion into the Coronavirus fund, he claims that the half-billion to WHO could be better spent elsewhere.  This is all the GIANT-EGO’s ego, and embedded anti-China policy.

It is hard enough to fight the virus war, than to have to fight the misdirections of the GIANT EGO and his Obsequions at the same time.

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