Trump Leaves a Destructive Climate Wake

Posted on October 17, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

Trump Leaves a Destructive Climate Wake

Humpty Dumpty Ran on The Wall;

Humpty Dumpty Had a Viral Fall;

All the King’s Governors and all of his Judgemen,

Couldn’t Put Humpty in Office Again.  (We hope.)

The NY Times had a series of gloom and doom articles on Trump’s wake on the environment, and it was a literal Wake also for environmentalism.  This was after their editorial with detailed articles asked readers to reject Trump for a second term.

Briefly, Trump is stacking the agency scientific advisory committees with deregulators and non-scientists, probably from the industries being regulated.  Some of these will outlive his administration.

Also, his wake of 200 federal judgeships come mainly from the Federalist Society, funded by oilman Charles Koch.  They are also ruling on Republican backed vote blocking strategies.  They will continue to rule Republican on election appeals.

Then, Supreme Court Super-stacker Justice hardly-in-waiting Amy Coney Barrett opposes the Executive Branch Agencies actually adopting regulations.  She wants them to be explicitly passed by the Congress.  Any simple regulation can run hundreds or a thousand pages covering all cases and details.  This takes many experts and scientists many years to draft, and is subject to public input periods and modifications.  It is totally unrealistic to expect mostly lawyers and non-scientists in Congress to actually get involved in the details.  Hence, no regulations, even though they are badly needed.

Finally, Trump has started his high-speed massive destructive Wake with three months left before the next administration takes over.  He is hardly leaving any scientific agency unflooded.  He is actually swamping them.  Instead of a 60 day comment period of comments on regulations, followed by discussion and changes, he has shortened all that to 30 days.  The regulations are also being designed to be non-changeable.  Of course, one can always appeal to the courts, above.

The climatecasechart.com at Columbia U. Law lists 855 federal litigations going on already on climate relevant regulations.

Trump has now installed two non-scientific assistant administrators in the CDC.  He has been censoring their notifications and websites.  This has been going on in other agencies as well.  We also know that he is escalating his lies and has abandoned any safety goals to fight the Coronavirus and save lives.

It will take a long string of pumps to drain the environmental flood left by Trump.

Posted in 2020 Election, Air Quality, California Smog, California Water, Climate Change, Climate Education, Climate Science, Coal, Coastal Flooding, Electric Power, EPA, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Oil, Paris Climate Agreement, Politics, Regulations, Renewable Energy, Solar Energy, Supreme Court, Trump Administration, US Oil | Tagged | Leave a comment

IHME Projections Stay the Course

Posted on October 16, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

October 15 IHME Projections Stay the Course

Global

Global deaths are projected to February 1 as 2.419 million.  With 95% masking, this can be reduced to 1.800 million, saving 619,000 lives, about the same as last week.  Current deaths are at 1.135 millions, so there are 1.284 million to go.  The lives saved are 48%.  Current world average masking is 59%.

There are an estimated 1.734 million infections per day, with 0.250 million confirmed per day.  This gives a 6.9 ratio.

United States

The US projected deaths for February 1 are almost 400,000, more precisely 389,087, down 5,600 from last week.  With 95% masking, the deaths are 314,773, saving 74,314.  Using IHME, present deaths are 216,511, showing 172,576 to go to February 1.  The ratio of saved to deaths to go is 43.1%.  Current masking is 69%.  Daily deaths per day peak about January 15 at about 2,400.

Estimated current daily infections are 115,570 whereas confirmed have been 40,000, giving a ratio of 2.9.  Graphically, the ratio is 1/0.24 = 4.2. 

Today, the US confirmed cases passed 8 million.  Using the 4.2 ratio, this gives about 34 million, meaning that the US may have reached 10% infection.  With the 2.9 ratio, it would be 23 million infected, or 7.0%.

California

California projected deaths to February 1 are 36,071, down about 8,000 from last week.  With 95% masking this is projected at 26,564, saving 9,507 lives.  Current deaths are 16,823, so there are 19,248 to go.  The lives saved are 49.4% of those.  Current masking is 73%.

Estimated current daily infections are 7,268 with confirmed about 3,500 per day, giving a 2.1 ratio.

Texas

Texas projected deaths to February 1 are 31,301, about 4,000 more than last week.  Those with 95% masking are 24,045, saving 7,256 lives.  Current deaths are 16,869, leaving 14,432 to go.  Those that can be saved are 50.3% of those to go.  Current masking is 69%.

Florida

Florida projected deaths to February 1 are 28,656, same as last week.  Those with 95% masking are 24,995, saving 3,661.  Present deaths are 15,773, leaving 12,883 to go.  The saved lives are 28.4% of those projected losses.  Current masking is 68%.  The deaths per day peak in the middle of December.

Posted in Coronavirus, COVID-19, Health Care, IHME Projections | Leave a comment

US Excess Deaths Exceed Covid-19 Reported Deaths by 50%

Posted on October 14, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

A new article in JAMA, the Journal of the American Medical Association by Woolf et al., reports on excess deaths in the US and its states, from March 1 to August 1, 2020.  Even if all of these are not directly due to Covid-19, it doesn’t make any difference to those who died or to those mourning for them.  They are casualties of a pandemic that has been running wild in our country, while it has been stopped in many other countries.

In the US over the above 5 months there were 226,000 excess deaths, of which only 67% were attributed at least in part to Covid-19.  That leaves 33% of them or a half uncounted in Covid-19 confirmed death reports.

We show results for individual states in a table, starting with the US and the four largest states by population, and then ordering states by excess mortality per 100,000.  We then list their percent listed as due to Covid-19, and finally, their excess deaths over those expected in a normal period for those months.

State Excess Mortality per 100,000 % Listed as Covid-19 Excess Deaths
US 72 67% 225,530
CA 43 61% 17,002
TX 62 56% 17,772
FL 67 60% 14,250
NY 209 78% 40,863
NJ 202 78% 18,004
D.C. 129 74% 907
MA 120 95% 8,261
AZ 104 53% 7,471
MS 104 56% 3,104
MD 96 66% 5,809
DL 93 54% 899
RI 89 104% 940
MI 88 67% 8,797
IL 83 66% 10,601
AL 81 53% 3,936
SC 79 47% 4,009
PA 71 83% 9,106

For California, the 61% confirmed Covid-19 deaths means that 39% of excess deaths were not included.  The ratio 39%/61% = 0.64 means that their were 64% more deaths than were attributed to Covid-18, during that time period.

For Texas, the 56% confirmed Covid-19 deaths means that 44% of excess deaths were not included.  The ratio 44%/56% = 0.79 means that there were 79% more excess deaths than those attributed to Covid-19.

In Trump’s town hall, he said we did better in excess deaths than European countries, so he is well aware of this.

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Amy Coney Barrett Sends Shivers Down Scientific Spines

Posted on October 14, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

“I am not a scientist” — ACB, Sends Shivers Down Scientific Spines

The standard climate denier follow-on to that is the false claim that scientists are in dispute over climate change or global warming.  This is still an Energy and Environment blog, although I have been distracted in trying to understand and save lives in the more immediate and hopefully shorter term pandemic threat.

It is no secret that Justice-unstoppable Amy Coney Barrett has been waving banners throughout her career that she is just what the Federalist Society wants to fulfill its conservative goals.  It is also now apparent that Charles Koch, the Oil Magnate, who is funding a publicity campaign for her, is backing her for the hundreds of trillions of dollars in profits still to be made from US fossil fuels.  So whatever progress a Democratic Congress or President’s Executive Branch makes in mitigating climate change is at the mercy of a lopsided 6-3 fossil fuel dominated Supreme Court, for the upcoming most crucial decades.

Update:  this is from her second day of questioning, reported by Li Zhao on Vox:

Climate Change is a “very contentious matter of public debate”, she has decided!  Not a scientifically settled question, which is intensifying every year.  Anybody interviewing for any lifelong federal job which will be crucial for the most important long range challenge to the US and the Planet, should know the scientific consensus, and have gotten informed about this.  I think it is time for emergency editorials in all of the science magazines about this, and from all scientific societies.

So, it turns out that her father was an attorney for Shell Oil.

There is an institute that tracks climate change litigation, at climatecasechart.com run by the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law and Arnold and Porter at Columbia University. Under Federal Statutory Claims there are 855 cases.  Under Constitutional, there are 79 cases.  Some could end up in Federal courts, and maybe some will go to the Supreme Court.  Some fall under the EPA and Trump trying to limit the pages and time for filing Environmental Impact Reports, which keep clean air and clean water.

Here is a link to the Notre Dame Urban Adaptation Assessment of 2018, showing the climate risks to 270 US cities by Climate Change.  ACB attended law school at Notre Dame, and was on the faculty there.

Debate This:  Hottest September on Record!

 

As a scientist learning about scientific progress and about future possibilities beyond my lifespan, the Originalist program of interpreting our constitution seems like non-sense.  I was reinforced when a law professor on CNN said the same, and emphasized that they can justify whatever they want with that outlook.  I am constantly reminded of the fundamental rule of logic:  that from a false premise, anything can be justified.

Listening for only short stretches to ACB’s hearings with the Senate Judicial Committee is the most depressing thing going on right now, and will continue as ACB continues with the Stacked Court.  The Committee Democrats are doing an excellent job showing what is at stake, and showing how deceptive ACB is in pretending she cannot know how she would rule on a case, after spending her career advertising just that.  

Instead of her thousand repeated statement that she would rule on the Originalist interpretation of the law, not her beliefs or emotions, I am wishing that someday, she would realize that her religion and emotions are a more responsible and humanitarian guide.  The Catholic Church has decided that it is not at odds with science, and in fact embraces it.  Pope Francis has written in his second encyclical on the dangers of Climate Change, and backs the Paris Agreement and process.  Pope Francis also supports the causes of immigrants and refugees, which Climate Change has forced more people into.  The Pope has even allowed exceptions to abortion when the health of the child would be severely compromised.  

Justice ACB is also aware first hand of the difficulties that her two black children could face when sent out into a less protected society.  She is also aware of the schooling difficulties of children in a mismanaged pandemic response.  Above all, her nomination ceremony will always be tied up in a possible super-spreader event, topped off by the infection and possible resignation of the President of Notre Dame, her law school, and previous faculty employer.  

She has only served as a Federal Appeals Court Justice for three years, and was not a justice before that.  She realizes that she will always be known as the Justice installed in a rush to hear the case to destroy the Affordable Care Act, and cost 23 million Americans their health insurance in the middle of a pandemic, and possibly 123 million others to lose coverage because of having pre-existing conditions.  She will also be known as the candidate of a hypocritical Republican Senate who swore that they would not induct a justice in an election year, and yet will install her with only a few days to spare.  It must take guts of steel and unbelievable ambition to accept such a lifetime position under such circumstances.  Whereas all five or six conservative justices will be equally responsible for precedent breaking decisions, she will always get the blame as the hypocritically appointed justice.

To repeat:  if you start with a false or hypocritical premise, all else can go wrong.

Posted in 2020 Election, Clean Energy, Climate Change, Climate Education, Climate Science, Congress, Constitution, Coronavirus, COVID-19, Equal Treatment Under the Law, Fossil Fuel Energy, Freedoms, Gun Control, Health Care | Tagged | Leave a comment

Mask Wearing by State and Political Party

Posted on October 13, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

The IHME Coronavirus Projections now input masking data by State from Facebook.  This is in the Map below.  The Facebook data has national masking at 69%, a full 20% higher than the previous 49% national masking.  The effects of masking have also increased in the IHME model.

National Geographic took a survey of people who when they went out Mostly wore a Mask, Sometimes wore a Mask, and Never or Rarely wore a Mask.  We have a table of their results relative to Political Party.  The data are from October 2020.

Party Segment Always mask Sometimes Mask Rarely or Never mask
Democrats 84% 12% 4%
Dem. Men 80% 14% 6%
Dem. Women 89% 9% 2%
Independents 71% 20% 9%
Indep. Men 67% 22% 10%
Indep. Women 74% 19% 7%
Republicans 66% 23% 12%
Rep. Men 65% 26% 10%
Rep. Women 67% 20% 13%

The good news is, despite the large number unsure of taking a vaccine, or those that show up unmasked at Trump rallies, only 12% of Republicans don’t wear masks.  The other good news is that Democrats achieve 96% when needed, and the goal is the 95% to save half of the lives to be lost, by the IHME model.  Independents not masking come in between Democrats and Republicans.  A little leadership by Trump or his family, or his White House, or at his rallies, could bring Republicans up to the 95% limit.  It’s best to do it now in the last three weeks of the election, when people are paying attention.

The October 9 IHME calculations show the number of lives that would be lost if we tried to retreat to just herd immunity, at both the Global and National level.  Here is the CNN graphic of it, for levels of where herd immunity is from 40% to 60%.  The herd immunity is  from catching the Coronavirus.

Some vaccines should be available by February, when the US total of lives lost will be about 400,000.  The Administration says that vaccines given to the most vulnerable at the start will drop deaths by 80%-90%.  Getting to the herd immunity percentage with vaccinations has a lot fewer lives lost.  Global lives lost to February 1 are 2.5 million, and a global vaccine available by then could also lower further lives lost.

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Trump’s “Protective Glow”

Posted on October 13, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

Trump’s “Protective Glow”

Disclaimer:  In this day and age, I have to state that this article is an attempt at humor, and is not a serious conspiracy theory article.  However, if you still think it is, I know of a Vibranium Bridge in Brooklyn for sale.

It’s a little too early to be watching Christmas movies, so “you could even say it glows” wouldn’t have popped into Trump’s head, referring to Rudolph’s nose.  However, I vaguely recall a heart test that could have left some radioactivity, but I wasn’t warned about a “glow”.  Or is this just another example of steroids boosting the Trumpus Maximus Ego syndrome?

However, recently Trump revealed to Bob Woodward, on tape, that we had a new atomic weapon that even the Russians didn’t know about.  Atomic means radiation, which means a glow.  So could this be a Shield of Invulnerability?  Is Vibranium real?  Is Trump’s Glow the same as Captain America’s shield, but thin, light, and invisible except for that orange glow?  Or, is it made out of Wonder Woman’s arm bracelets or lasso?  Certainly, a radiation shield would also kill virus particles.  But if there was a reason to stay 6 feet away from the President in the past, this is another reason to do so.  

Trump keeps trying to pin the tag “Communist” on run-of-the-mill Democrats.  But leaking our secret weapon to Putin, Xi, and Kim sounds like more of a Communist friendly move.

Is this a hidden reason that Trump recruited a Neurological Radiologist, Dr. Scott Atlas, to be his Coronavirus advisor?  Have I said to much already to tip off the Russians?

By the way, why did Trump say that his treatment made him feel 20 years younger?  Has he really been aging like the rest of us?  Does he really need 12 doctors?  Did he not realize that instead of impressing us with how important he was, that it might just send the other message of how sick he was?  Or how difficult it is to treat the Coronavirus?

Trump must have had a falling out with Regeneron, because he is now saying that he is so strong that he could have gotten well by himself.  Regeneron said that Trump was just one case, and didn’t prove anything, destroying Trump’s miraculous intervention case.

But it could just be the glow of the Golden Boy, who was a millionaire as a child.  Trump has always had his Golden ‘Trump’ sign atop any of his properties.  He also always over-sells his wealth, except to the IRS, of course.  But the New York Times revealed that the New York Tax Department doesn’t agree with “if you’re a star, they always let you do it”.  

There is an old phrase “He who has the Gold, has the Power”.  The NY Times has shown that Trump was playing “He who has the Power, gets the Gold”, with 200 companies booking with Trump properties and getting government contracts and favors.  The tax analysis also showed that Trump directed $20 million from his companies into his 2016 campaign funds.

Last summer, there were 22 skin care products with “glow”.  Does Trump use all of these?

Does Glitter enhance Glow, or cover it up?  We need to know.  Maybe in the last debate, it could be Trump’s Glow versus Biden’s Glitter.  If anybody actually answers the question they were asked, wake me up.  They should rename Debates to Detours.

Posted in 2020 Election, Coronavirus, COVID-19, Health Care, Humor | Tagged | Leave a comment

IHME Projected Deaths for Leading Countries to February 1 and Savable Percent

Posted on October 11, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

We show for leading countries the Total Deaths to February 1, Savable Lives by 95% masking, Future Deaths to February 1, the Percent of those that are the Savable Lives, and the Percent of Present Masking.  The countries are ordered by projected total deaths.

Country Total Deaths Savable Lives Future Deaths Percent Savable Present Masking
US 394,693 78,866 181,652 43.4% 69%
India 349,303 127,146 240,415 52.9% 67%
Brazil 178,431 9,368 27,981 33.5% 66%
Mexico 132,961 13,107 50,743 25.8% 80%
UK 127,196 39,911 68,528 58.2% 53%
Russia 110,540 71,203 88,184 80.7% 37%
France 84,579 12,882 51,401 25.1% 65%

 

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Projections of Lives Lost to the Coronavirus by World Regions

Posted on October 11, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

IHME Projections of World Regional Lives Lost to the Coronavirus by February 1, and Those Savable by Masking

The IHME World projections start with seven world regions.  We will give the projected deaths from the Coronavirus by February 1, the lives savable by 95% masking, the future lives to be lost with present masking, the percent savable, and the present masking percent in that region.  The table is ordered by the projected number of deaths in each region.

Region Total Deaths Savable Lives Future Deaths Percent Savable Present Masking
Europe, Central Asia 806,668 319,811 544,012 58.8% 53%
Latin America, Caribbean 528,965 31,427 143,507 21.9% 78%
North America 423,650 88,979 251,097 35.4% 69%
South Asia 388,797 147,917 265,723 55.7% 60%
North Africa, Middle East 189,669 76,568 128,272 59.7% 41%
East Asia, Pacific 101,855 25,277 75,083 33.7% 67%
Sub-Saharan Africa 48,743 16,117 22,177 72.7% 44%

We note that with the larger amount of current masking, the smaller percentage of lives to be saved by further masking.

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Global IHME Projected Total and Daily Deaths and Infections to February 1

Posted on October 11, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

Global IHME Projected Total and Daily Deaths and Infections to February 1

The IHME University of Washington Medical School model has currently 1.108 million (m) Global deaths from the Coronavirus.  Their projection to February 1 is 2.488 m.  With 95% masking that can be reduced to 1.782 m, saving 0.706 m lives.  Thus the fraction of 51% can be saved by 95% masking.  Current average world masking is 59%.  There is currently a drop of 19% in world mobility.

Current deaths per day in the model are 5,352.  On February 1, the projected deaths per day are triple that at 16,844.  That can be reduced to 7,506 or to 45% of that rate with 95% masking.  The peak of deaths per day is projected to be January 12 with 17,430 per day.

The Lakers just won the NBA championship, which means that Bubbles work.  But they really need to keep in bubbles forever, rather than risk damaging their lungs, hearts, or any other organs.  The season ran 3 months.

Current Global infections per day are 1.780 m, which is a factor of 7.1 larger than the confirmed infections per day of about 0.250 m.  The peak is projected to occur around January 17, at 5.039 m per day.  With masking that would be reduced to 1.939 m per day, a reduction to 38%.  

On February 1, there are projected to be 4.919 m per day, which can be reduced 1.934 m with 95% masking, a reduction to 39%.

Both the IHME and the Imperial models now show peaking of the same order around the New Year.

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IHME Coronavirus Projections to February 1 for California, Texas, Florida, and New York

Posted on October 11, 2020 by Dennis SILVERMAN

IHME Coronavirus Projections to Feb. 1 for California, Texas, Florida, and New York

The populations of these four states sum to 110 million, about a third of the US populations.  These states also cover the two largest swing states, of Texas and Florida.  In Florida, Gov. DeSantis overrode local controls.  Also, California and New York are models of reasoned and scientific controlled states.

California

The IHME projected deaths to February 1 are 43,699, but with 95% masking will be reduced to 33,434, saving 10,215 lives.  With 16,614 deaths today, that will be 27,085 more deaths.  So 95% masking will save 38% of the projected deaths.  Current mask usage is 77%.

On February 1, deaths per day are projected to be 411, but can be reduced to 321 with 95% masking, saving 90 per day, or 22% then.  There are only 76 deaths per day now, so this is a much larger projection by over a factor of 5.

Today, there are and estimated 10,430 infections per day, with about 3,500 a day confirmed.  That is a factor of 3.0 larger.

I will make an amateur estimate of the infectious, assuming that people are infectious for 14 days.  That would mean that in California there are 10,430 x 14 = 146,000 infectious people, out of 40,000,000.  That is 0.37% infectious, or about 1 out of 300.  Wear a mask and social distance.  Avoid large gatherings.  Don’t talk, or let other people talk to you.  Don’t debate anybody.

Texas

The IHME projections of deaths by February 1 are 27,229, which can be reduced to 21,485 by 95% masking, saving 5,744 lives.  With 16,394 current deaths in the IHME model, there are 10,835 to go.  So the 5,744 lives saved are 53% of the new projected deaths.  Current Texas masking is at 70%.

Projected February 1 deaths per day are 167, but can be reduced to 51 by 95% masking.  The 116 prevented deaths per day are 69%.  Today there are 66 deaths per day, so the projections are an increase by 2.5.

Current estimated infections per day are 10,802, which are a factor of 2.7 times the approximate 4,000 confirmed cases per day.

My crude estimate of infectious Texans are 14 x 10,802 / 29,000,000 = 0.5% or 1 out of 200.  My motto:  Don’t mess with Texas.

Florida

Projected deaths by February 1 are 28,654, which can be reduced to 24,332 with 95% masking, saving 4,322 lives.  With 15,176 current deaths, that is 13,478 to go with the current projection.  So the 4,322 savable lives are 32% or a third of the projected lives lost.  Currently, Florida is 68% masked.

The current estimated infections per day are 12,407, and divided by the approximate 2,500 confirmed per day, gives a ratio of 5.0.

My crude estimate of the infectious are 14 x 12,407 / 21,500,000 = 0.81% or 1 out of 125 people.  Stay away from Mar-a-Lago.  Avoid unmasked or poorly masked people, like the plague.  Don’t argue with them.

New York

The projected New York Coronavirus deaths by February 1 are 39,833, which can be reduced to 36,529 with 95% masking, saving 3,304 lives.  Current deaths are at 33,249, so there will be 5,584 deaths to February 1.  The 3,304 lives savable by masking are 59% of the new projected deaths.  New York is currently at 78% masking.

Projected deaths per day for February 1 are 147, which can be reduced to 74 with masking, saving 73 per day, or half.  Current deaths per day are only 9.5.

There are currently an estimated 1,591 infections per day, with about 800 per day confirmed.  Their ratio is a factor of 2.0.

My crude estimate of the current infectious are 14 x 1,600 / 19,500,00 = 0.11%, or only 1 out of 900.  Don’t move to Florida this year.

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